BeechTalk - BT - Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 16 Apr 2025, 15:41

Username Protected wrote:

We lost Mike C.

Analog electronics have no future.
The MU-2 is inherently unsafe.
Citation Vs cost a fortune to run.

There, that should do it. It's like saying "Beetlejuice" 3 times.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Apr 2025, 08:43

Username Protected wrote:

We lost Mike C.

Analog electronics have no future.
The MU-2 is inherently unsafe.
Citation Vs cost a fortune to run.

There, that should do it. It's like saying "Beetlejuice" 3 times.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Apr 2025, 17:06

he has a history of tuning in & out

Username Protected · **Posted:** 17 Apr 2025, 22:37

This thread reminds me of uncle Joe’s response to the query at his 75th wedding anniversary. Good old uncle Joe had been married to the same woman since they were both 20 years old. They had numerous children, grandchildren and even great grandchildren in attendance at their celebration, which included a nice buffet dinner, dancing and drinking. As the evening wore on, one of the daughters in law grabbed the microphone and asked Joe for the secret to such a long marriage. Joe replied without hesitation “The Bitch Won’t Die!”

Username Protected · **Posted:** 19 Apr 2025, 10:24

I think this thread lives on because we’re still in the situation that inspired me to start it back in August of 2021, a situation most people thought would be temporary.

It’s also kept alive because of a few people who don’t like me.

Username Protected wrote:

I've been doing this a long time and I have never seen used (or new) aircraft inventory levels this low. My world is acquiring turbine aircraft so that is what I know best, but apparently the same thing is happening, maybe worse, in piston airplanes.

It's hard to even calculate how low inventory levels are because most of the aircraft advertised for sale on Controller either aren't real or are already sold.

There's 48 King Air B200's currently listed for sale, but when you look at them there's nothing there. Sold, damaged, overpriced. But, even if they were real you are talking about a fleet of 1042 airplanes and only 48 are even supposedly for sale? That number usually stays between two and three times that.

Take the Learjet 45XR, there's only 3 or 4 US airplanes for sale, we bought one for a client last year and had at least a dozen to pick from. We purchased the third one we actually looked at! My client could sell his airplane today for a profit and will probably be able to sell it next year for a substantial profit.

Everyone knows we do a lot of Mustangs... decent airplane on an engine program, no damage history, priced right? The chances are almost 100% that we have to find that airplane off market, there's just nothing out there.

I keep hearing people say it's going to drop.

When?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 26 Apr 2025, 08:57

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/25/private ... uyers.html

Username Protected · **Posted:** 26 Apr 2025, 10:09

Username Protected wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/25/private-jet-demand-declines-as-tariffs-spook-would-be-buyers.html

I'm seeing that in my business.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 26 Apr 2025, 10:33

Username Protected wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/25/private-jet-demand-declines-as-tariffs-spook-would-be-buyers.html

I'm seeing that in my business.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 10:44

Was just asked via pm about the current market, so thought I would share here.

It’s weird right now, things are slow, I can tell from talking to the brokers and dealers, mainly because they answer the phone, or call back quickly!

But, we aren’t seeing a lot of motivated sellers yet and the overall feel is actually quite positive. I think everyone assumes the Trump tax plan will pass and aircraft sales will skyrocket again, so there’s a lot of waiting.

We are seeing a decline in a few markets, that decline being caused by prices that were over-inflated coming down after a lack of sales created excess inventory. A notable example is late model PC12NG’s, we’ve helped clients buy two in the last couple of months.

As always, one model… one market.

Meaning the “market” is actually a combination of multiple model specific sub-markets, to buy today you need to become an expert in whatever model market you are in.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 11:03

Username Protected wrote:

Was just asked via pm about the current market, so thought I would share here.

It’s weird right now, things are slow, I can tell from talking to the brokers and dealers, mainly because they answer the phone, or call back quickly!

But, we aren’t seeing a lot of motivated sellers yet and the overall feel is actually quite positive. I think everyone assumes the Trump tax plan will pass and aircraft sales will skyrocket again, so there’s a lot of waiting.

We are seeing a decline in a few markets, that decline being caused by prices that were over-inflated coming down after a lack of sales created excess inventory. A notable example is late model PC12NG’s, we’ve helped clients buy two in the last couple of months.

As always, one model… one market.

Meaning the “market” is actually a combination of multiple model specific sub-markets, to buy today you need to become an expert in whatever model market you are in.

After the economic crash of 2008, there were two types of sellers: Those who were WAY underwater and had to liquidate, and those who were liquid and could ride it out.

There were so many of the former, however, that a lot of aircraft got dumped on the market because they HAD to sell, to get whatever they could. Magnitude of the loss wasn't even a consideration. That caused prices to collapse. I was looking at 182RGs at the time, and they were well over $200k (righteous bucks in 2008). After 2008, prime examples were going in the $140s-150s.

Mind you, this happened VERY abruptly. Over the course of maybe 4-6 months.

There were sellers in the later category, but they were fairly stubborn in their pricing. They were selling because they wanted to sell, not because they needed to. They were universally a pretty cranky bunch because the market got yanked out from under them.

I was told by one dude that "I'll cut the airplane up before I sell it for that". A lot of airplanes durning that time got pushed to the back of the hangar, and the doors padlocked, not to be seen for another 10 years.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 11:38

Username Protected wrote:

It’s weird right now, things are slow

It isn't weird, the stock market is way down from its highs. No feeling of wealth, no interest in buying a plane.

This isn't complicated.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 12:04

Username Protected wrote:

It’s weird right now, things are slow

It isn't weird, the stock market is way down from its highs. No feeling of wealth, no interest in buying a plane.

This isn't complicated.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 13:09

Username Protected wrote:

Too bad the SF50 never made it to certification and wouldn’t sell if it did.

Even with green font that’s a weird statement.

But regarding inventory levels…

Trade-A-Plane, Beechcraft 36 Bonanza Series Aircraft for Sale
Apr 22, 2016: 67
Sep 19, 2020: 46
Oct 21, 2021: 33
Mar 11, 2025: 88
Apr 4, 2025: 91
May 10, 2025: 95

Controller, Jet Aircraft for Sale
Sep 17, 2020: 1,608
Oct 22, 2021: 657
Mar 11, 2025: 1,381
Apr 4, 2025: 1,391
May 10, 2025: 1,342

32 of those currently for sale are SF50s, FWIW.

Honestly seems like we’re back to pre-pandemic levels. Without any other impetus, I’d expect the market to normalize now and it to become more of a buyers market.

Next 6 months will be interesting and not just for used aircraft inventory

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 15:24

Username Protected wrote:

Too bad the SF50 never made it to certification and wouldn’t sell if it did.

Even with green font that’s a weird statement.

But regarding inventory levels…

Trade-A-Plane, Beechcraft 36 Bonanza Series Aircraft for Sale
Apr 22, 2016: 67
Sep 19, 2020: 46
Oct 21, 2021: 33
Mar 11, 2025: 88
Apr 4, 2025: 91
May 10, 2025: 95

Controller, Jet Aircraft for Sale
Sep 17, 2020: 1,608
Oct 22, 2021: 657
Mar 11, 2025: 1,381
Apr 4, 2025: 1,391
May 10, 2025: 1,342

32 of those currently for sale are SF50s, FWIW.

Honestly seems like we’re back to pre-pandemic levels. Without any other impetus, I’d expect the market to normalize now and it to become more of a buyers market.

Next 6 months will be interesting and not just for used aircraft inventory

Username Protected · **Posted:** 10 May 2025, 15:37

Username Protected wrote:

if bonus appreciation passes, it will be crazy again

I wouldn't buy anything if I had to appreciate it. Does that increase my tax bill?