Critical means "having the potential to become disastrous; at a point of crisis."

We are not near disaster or a crisis.

Mike C.

What you are missing is migration. People migrating from certain states and cities to other states and suburban and rural areas. There is also an ongoing migration of shopping from strip malls to online.

So urban office and retail is taking a big hit while suburban housing is going strong in some places. Alabama has become a particularly hot market as price increases in Florida have people looking for alternatives, both people moving from Florida, as well as those fleeing NY, CT, and IL.

That will correct itself via the normal means. More planes will get built, more planes will be kept flying, more companies will provide services, etc. That's normal market behavior.

Mike C.

I am sure this will not comport with all of the copium of, "see the chart shows x" but in my little insignificant area of the Southeast flight schools are at capacity. Trainers are in such demand schools are buying old worn out airplanes (mainly 172 and 150s) and restoring them, maintenance facilities are at capacity with long waits for service, airports have no hanger or even tie-down space other than TYS--which is an open canker on the ass of aviation--and Cirrus sells all the $1mil singles they can build.

On the market worn out 60 year old Cessna 172s are 100K plus and my 150 has gone up $12,000 in three years and I have had it. Traffic is way up as well, so it's not just people with planes that do not fly.

I keep hearing traffic is way up all over, but the amount of avgas being burned still hasn't gone up. I think prices have gone up but the amount of flying has been fairly flat.

If the volume of AvGas being sold hasn't changed, why did every A&P shop in the country suddenly jump from a 1 month backlog to a "you'll have to find someone else" backlog?

Or is that second part just my imagination?

Does FlightAware publish any summary data? If someone has access to the entire DB, it should be easy to see if the same planes are flying more hours, if more planes are flying, or neither.

I think planes are getting upgrades, Continental keeps shops busy by rolling out recalls, some places/schools certainly are busier, but on a whole, if piston GA flying was up, avgas sales would reflect that pretty clearly. I have no real explanation for why so many people think flying is up when gas sales are not, but I have been hearing it and reading it online for a few years now so the perception is widespread. That said, the evidence still hasn't shown up and I don't see how the fuel data could be the one that is wrong.

I'm not sure I believe the fuel numbers. I've looked at that data and it just doesn't seem to track with reality.

According to them, Jet A usage isn't up much.

BS!!!

Here's my latest funny quote.

"Shopping for an airplane on Controller is like looking for a wife in a bar."

The choices are probably a little rough, some have been there way too long.

If she's a 10, not crazy, a decent person... and hanging out in a bar... you can't afford her.

That's what is known as a "unicorn" because they don't exist!

According to the crazy/hot matrix she's also a guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbpGkrViOcE

MC,

Critical can also mean:

of, relating to, or being a turning point or specially important juncture

relating to or being a state, measurement, or point in or at which some quality, property, or phenomenon suffers a definite change .

I took Chip’s meaning to be that change was afoot, and it was. The market was in transition…like, you know, an “important juncture” that preceded “definite change”.

Looks like your crticism of Chip’s use of the word “critical” could have benefitted from more critical analysis. IMHO you have made your opinion of Chip and his postings real clear, real often, and this I find that you have exceeded criticial mass on this topic and become simply tiresome.

I think planes are getting upgrades, Continental keeps shops busy by rolling out recalls, some places/schools certainly are busier, but on a whole, if piston GA flying was up, avgas sales would reflect that pretty clearly. I have no real explanation for why so many people think flying is up when gas sales are not, but I have been hearing it and reading it online for a few years now so the perception is widespread. That said, the evidence still hasn't shown up and I don't see how the fuel data could be the one that is wrong.

Come to East TN and go flying with me and I will show you what I am talking about. I have been flying for 35 years so I have a pretty accurate frame of reference. I remember not so long ago when you could fly from TYS to MBT or BNA and the radio was silent other than hand offs--this has completely changed. The traffic volume around DKX and MOR is greater than it was in the 80s. I am very thankful for ADSB. The ramps are full at the small airports when before they were not. Some of this could be due to the migration to TN but the number of flight schools has gone way up and they are all flying.

Come to East TN and go flying with me and I will show you what I am talking about. I have been flying for 35 years so I have a pretty accurate frame of reference. I remember not so long ago when you could fly from TYS to MBT or BNA and the radio was silent other than hand offs--this has completely changed. The traffic volume around DKX and MOR is greater than it was in the 80s. I am very thankful for ADSB. The ramps are full at the small airports when before they were not. Some of this could be due to the migration to TN but the number of flight schools has gone way up and they are all flying.