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08 Jun 2025, 07:57 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:08 
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Joined: 11/22/12
Posts: 2838
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Company: Retired
Location: Lynnwood, WA (KPAE)
Aircraft: Lancair Evolution
After 14 years with my A36, I've had a spate of niggling little issues this year that have seriously hurt dispatch reliability. The lower upfront cost vs. higher maintenance tradeoff is fraying. So much so that I'm seriously considering pulling the trigger on a SETP, despite flying only about 100 hours a year, all of it pleasure travel, no business use (I'm retired). It makes no financial sense for me to own ANY plane, much less a turbine.

To make it even worse, the SETP I'm considering is Experimental, a Lancair Evolution. About the same cost as a 90s TBM but hella cheaper to maintain. But will I spend all the savings on insurance? And will any E-AB, even a turbine, have the dispatch reliability I want?

Am I totally nuts?


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:12 
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Joined: 01/29/08
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Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
Once i got an SETP I flew a lot more long distance trips because they weren't long distance.

As for the Evolution..... $2MM and no de-ice. It's an amazing plane but you'll never get rid of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:13 
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Joined: 10/27/10
Posts: 10790
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Location: Cambridge, MA (KLWM)
Aircraft: 1997 A36TN
I'm a little confused by your question, as you portray both frustrations with your A36 maintenance issues and lots of concerns about costs.

I can't see anyway you can operate a turbine for anywhere near what your A36TN costs you, not even within a factor of 2.

So, are you upset with the maintenance costs or the downtime and associated personal time you have to spend chasing it of the A36?

If it's costs, you're making the problem worse buying a turbine.

If it's downtime, buying a second A36TN would be cheaper, but if money is no object a turbine may make sense.

If it's the time you spend chasing the maintenance issues, a turbine might also be better. (Here again, you might find another strategy to avoid or reduce the time spent, perhaps by buying services from Savvy/Mike Busch, or resolving to just toss a checkbook and the keys at your maintenance provider.)


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:29 
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Joined: 08/03/10
Posts: 1561
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Company: D&M Leasing Houston
Location: Katy, TX (KTME)
Aircraft: CitationV/C180
Since it appears you have done the research, what MX concerns are you referring to with the TBM's? I have thought seriously about this for my next plane and I thought they were pretty much just annual inspections?


JC is right about the Evolution....they will have to bury you in it.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:43 
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Joined: 11/08/12
Posts: 12805
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Location: Jackson, MS (KHKS)
Aircraft: 1961 Cessna 172
Lancair insurance is $$$$$$

If you want low cost, resellable and reliable, get a Jetprop (STC converted Malibu)

What about sending your bird to the shop for a rebuild? Strip it down to the airframe and start over. Or get a 2nd plane (not another A36 - two of the same plane is boring)


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 15:45 
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Joined: 02/14/09
Posts: 6068
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Company: tomdrew.lawyer
Location: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)
Aircraft: 1973 Baron E55
Pouring gasoline on a fire to try to put it out.

Take $50AMU and have your airplane looked over top to bottom. Or, buy a V35 or C182 as a backup airplane and fly on.

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C340A/8KCAB/T182T
F33C/E55/B58
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Currency 12 M: IPC/BFR, CFII Renewal


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 16:36 
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Joined: 06/24/12
Posts: 381
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Aircraft: Mooney
What kind of problems did you have that hurt your dispatch relability?

Larry


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 16:38 
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Joined: 12/19/08
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The Evolution is cool, but I can't imagine owning a $1M plane that did not have de-ice. Take your TN bird and spend some money on it.

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The kid gets it all. Just plant us in the damn garden, next to the stupid lion.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 16:49 
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Joined: 01/23/13
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Company: Kokotele Guitar Works
Location: Albany, NY
Aircraft: C-182RG, C-172, PA28
Have the previous 14 years been relatively maintenance-free? If so, I'd say you're way ahead of the curve and and putting the money into a couple of months of real thorough maintenance might get you another 10-15 years of reliable, low cost flying. Spend a little more on some fun upgrades for yourself and it'll feel like a new, but familiar ride.

Having said that, if I had the money to spend and the time to fly it, a demo flight in both a PC-12 and TBM would be on my list. There's nothing that makes any sense about it, except that it puts more destinations within closer reach like Jason said.

Don't forget to consider hangar availability and cost, training requirements, etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 19:59 
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Joined: 09/02/09
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Company: OAA
Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
Username Protected wrote:

Am I totally nuts?


An SETP will not be without maintenance. And, buying a used airplane of any kind, means you are buying into the poor habits of the previous owner that you can never know about in full until things break. So, you don't lose your downtime risk and may increase it.

Even if the plane you are considering is cheaper to maintain than a certified one by the time you take the bath on sale you will be thinking the higher maintenance was a bargain.

If you want and can afford to fly an SETP I say buy it. You're retired and, like the rest of us, have a limited time to fly. Buy it and go have fun!


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 20:07 
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Joined: 11/08/12
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Location: Jackson, MS (KHKS)
Aircraft: 1961 Cessna 172
It's often possible to dry-lease SETP's. Just wanna throw $25K at it and see if you like the experience?


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 20:50 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
Username Protected wrote:
Am I totally nuts?

You are asking the other patients in the mental asylum.

What is it you WANT to do? Do that. What's your money for otherwise?

Fixing up the A36 is viable. It is probably just a spate of problems you can work through and get resolved. You know the plane, that is worth something.

Buying a turboprop is a lifestyle changer. Fast, pressurized, all weather, reliable. Typically more suited to the businessman than the retiree, though. An older TBM can be sold reasonably quickly and at a decent price. The potential capital loss on the Evolution will swamp all other expenses. Some turboprop twins are pretty economical, too.

If what you really want is TRAVEL, take the $1M you'd spend on the Evolution, plus what it would have cost per year and per hour, and charter a jet where you want to go. If all you do is 100 hours in an A36 (say 16,000 nm/year), your fixed costs are dominating the budget and chartering may end up being cheaper overall.

Rough calc: $2K/hour, 350 knots block for typical light jet charter. Cost for 16,000 nm (A36 replacement) is $90K. 10 years would be $900K.

Evolution would be $1M to buy, $30K/year fixed costs, $450/hour to fly, 250 knots block. Works out to $59K year operating for 16,000 nm. Over 10 years, assume you can sell the Evolution for $400K, you spent total of $1.19M.

TBM would be $1M to buy, $30K/year fixed costs, $550/hour to fly, 280 knots block. Works out to $62K year operating for 16,000 nm. Over 10 years, assume you can sell TBM for $700K, you spent total of $920K.

Key insight: Being experimental doesn't really get you out of the major expenses for being a turboprop such as major engine events (HSI and OH), fuel, insurance, and parts. When you fly a turboprop, the maintenance labor becomes a small percentage of the cost (turboprop takes less routine labor), so being experimental doesn't help that much.

Mike C.

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Email mikec (at) ciholas.com


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 21:08 
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Joined: 08/05/11
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Username Protected wrote:
You are asking the other patients in the mental asylum.



Mike C.


I advise not taking the bait. Feeding sharks just creates a frenzy.

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“ Embrace the Suck”


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 21:27 
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Joined: 11/08/12
Posts: 7370
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Location: Live in San Carlos, CA - based Hayward, CA KHWD
Aircraft: Piaggio Avanti
Username Protected wrote:
I'm seriously considering pulling the trigger on a SETP, despite flying only about 100 hours a year, all of it pleasure travel, no business use (I'm retired). It makes no financial sense for me to own ANY plane, much less a turbine.

Exactly the same situation as me. Actually as a good majority who fly, we fly because we like to not because it makes financial sense.

Buy and fly what you will enjoy and can afford.

Quote:
To make it even worse, the SETP I'm considering is Experimental, a Lancair Evolution. About the same cost as a 90s TBM but hella cheaper to maintain. But will I spend all the savings on insurance?

Experimental will likely not improve your dispatch reliability, so carefully determine what it is you really want out of your purchase. You will likely be uninsurable, at least at limits that are meaningful if you have enough assets to buy and operate a $2M turbine aircraft. As someone else said, you'll likely to have difficulty selling if you ever choose to.

Personally, I would not go experimental turbine.

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-Jon C.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me off the ledge
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2015, 21:57 
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Joined: 04/04/12
Posts: 2377
Post Likes: +558
Location: O32 Central Cali.
Aircraft: C150
YOLO , SETP,
I'm with JC on this one.
Mark


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