Show your math to justify your answer.

I believe you are just making this up because you want it to be true.

Are you actually arguing the number of crashes is "normal", that it isn't worthy of addressing, that there isn't a "real problem"? That is what your statement above suggests you believe, that this rate of fatal King Air crashes right after takeoff is "normal" for a fleet size of 6000.

There is no way that is true.

When one King Air crashes 20 seconds after takeoff with asymmetric thrust, that's a random event.

When a second one does it, maybe that's still random, a coincidence.

When a third does it, now you are wondering if there is something systemic causing this.

By the time the 10th one does it, there is no longer a question. That is so statistically improbable to be just random that there is absolutely something systemic that needs to be addressed.

In other words, we DO HAVE A LOT MORE CRASHES in that specific moment of flight than one would explain away as random.

Those 10 crashes total about 3 minutes of flight time. That is an astronomically high fatal accident rate.

Mike C.

They are not all fatal. Here's one where I knew the pilot from the lunch counter. It was kind of miraculous that he walked away, albeit he sustained a tear in his pants. Had lunch with him a few months after the accident.

Even after the event, he wasn't quite sure what actually happened to him because it happened fast and he could not control the event - he said he did his best to just keep the aircraft upright, and likely that's what saved him. But it has every hallmark of being exactly this PLM issue.

https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/321444

It is crazy this has not been addressed via an AD.

Show your math to justify your answer.

I believe you are just making this up because you want it to be true.

Are you actually arguing the number of crashes is "normal", that it isn't worthy of addressing, that there isn't a "real problem"? That is what your statement above suggests you believe, that this rate of fatal King Air crashes right after takeoff is "normal" for a fleet size of 6000.

There is no way that is true.

When one King Air crashes 20 seconds after takeoff with asymmetric thrust, that's a random event.

When a second one does it, maybe that's still random, a coincidence.

When a third does it, now you are wondering if there is something systemic causing this.

By the time the 10th one does it, there is no longer a question. That is so statistically improbable to be just random that there is absolutely something systemic that needs to be addressed.

In other words, we DO HAVE A LOT MORE CRASHES in that specific moment of flight than one would explain away as random.

Those 10 crashes total about 3 minutes of flight time. That is an astronomically high fatal accident rate.

Mike C.

This is true of almost any crash in any type. But you don't get to discount the ones where the pilot goofed as not being part of the accident rate for a given type.

They are not all fatal. Here's one where I knew the pilot from the lunch counter. It was kind of miraculous that he walked away, albeit he sustained a tear in his pants. Had lunch with him a few months after the accident.

Even after the event, he wasn't quite sure what actually happened to him because it happened fast and he could not control the event - he said he did his best to just keep the aircraft upright, and likely that's what saved him. But it has every hallmark of being exactly this PLM issue.

https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/321444

It is crazy this has not been addressed via an AD.

I took the liberty of changing "King Air" to "MU2" just for grins.

Well… As far as I can tell there were less than 10 Boeing 737 rudder hardover accidents through the 1990s. These were due to a design issue that was subsequently corrected. At the time something like 4000 737s had been produced. And the average 737 flies a lot more than the average King Air.

So I don’t think that the relatively small number of accidents mean that cannot be a design flaw.

Well… As far as I can tell there were less than 10 Boeing 737 rudder hardover accidents through the 1990s. These were due to a design issue that was subsequently corrected. At the time something like 4000 737s had been produced. And the average 737 flies a lot more than the average King Air.

So I don’t think that the relatively small number of accidents mean that cannot be a design flaw.

Sure you can. Good engineering considers human factors and limitations. You can never engineer out all forms of human error, and ultimately it is the pilots fault if they are ignoring the friction locks and not guarding the throttles.

That said, it is a know issue and engineers could definitely reduce the likelihood of pilot error or the severity if an error occurs. Well, they could if managers and lawyers allow them to.

They are not all fatal. Here's one where I knew the pilot from the lunch counter. It was kind of miraculous that he walked away, albeit he sustained a tear in his pants. Had lunch with him a few months after the accident.

Even after the event, he wasn't quite sure what actually happened to him because it happened fast and he could not control the event - he said he did his best to just keep the aircraft upright, and likely that's what saved him. But it has every hallmark of being exactly this PLM issue.

https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/321444
It is crazy this has not been addressed via an AD.

This thread was V vs 350. I think I would rather have a plane that is not trying to kill me on take off.

The take off crashes of the KA scare the hell out of me. It was the major reason I skipped the twin turboprop and went to a twin Jet.

The recent Citation crashes were literally pilot error as they both went below the glideslope. Thats not an aircraft design flaw that can be solved.

Thats the the safety factor that would make me pick a Citation over a KA.

I think the KA is larger and more comfortable. So at least those KA passengers were comfortable right before they died.

The PC-12 is larger and more comfortable than my 501. But no way I would swap my Eagle II for a PC-12. the PC-12 is not comfortable when climbing through weather at 1500fpm and cruising in the crap at FL280. I will take a jet getting through the weather faster.

Mike

Well you can. My plane will tell me in a clear voice through the head-sets if I am starting to deviate off glide slope or localizer. It will even tell me in clear voice if it disagrees with the barometric pressure set in the window.

The new high tech planes are making it harder and harder for pilots to kill them.

When I typed that I thought of you. Was going to change what I said but didn’t want to steal your glory. Didn’t take you long. Haha.

Which btw I agree with you. The new glidslope feature from Garmin could have saved a lot of lives. What a simple thing that can be so valuable


Mike

Point of clarification: this thread is titled Citation V vs KA 350. Not the myriad of other KA types.

I believe the KA 350 has only had one fatal, not the dozens counted when all makes are considered.

Not to minimize the PL problem, but just to focus on the actual thread title.

Wasn’t there a 300 fatal yesterday?