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13 May 2025, 17:14 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 04 May 2025, 22:31 
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Not everyday, but I see this often enough to say I wouldn’t own a modern jet without a program.

Sounds like a good reason not to get a "modern" jet. Thankfully, I didn't, and I have choices.

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Getting a $400k surprise bill takes a fair bit of fun out of owning a light jet.

Sending in a minimum of $75K in program payments per year isn't fun, either, nor having to pay for hours you didn't use due to not making minimums hours per year.

If you take the program payments and stick them into an SP500 ETF, it won't take very long to grow a very healthy cash reserve to deal with the unscheduled events. The 16 years of Williams payments, totaling $800K, grew to over $2M in value for 2400 hours of use. That's more than the market value of the airplane in some cases.

Programs reduce anxiety, but you pay for them dearly. Having $2M extra dollars is also a good anxiety reducer, too.

Mike C.


I’m not sure you read what I said.

Most jet buyers don’t want to ride around in a 40 year old plane.

Secondly, they aren’t starting from scratch so the point is mostly moot. If they buy a plane on programs, own the plane for 5 years, fly 150 hours per year, and pay a total of $375,000 to maintain the value and eliminate additional maintenance costs and enjoy the program benefits, it’s a no brainer.

You don’t have that option. Different strokes for different folks.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 04 May 2025, 22:44 
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That is a lot of money. If one does have the discipline to invest that money would be a no brainer to self insure. But then the OEM’s punish you by making you pay above market for repairs, which is complete extortion. Makes the high performance turboprops seem even more attractive. Fortunately the SETP OEM’s haven’t taken that route. Pratt does offer a plan for some of the SETPs. Just no way to make the math look attractive, so very few do it.



If it’s being sold to a Part 91 operator WHY would you overhaul an engine at 3600 hours when they routinely are used in the oil fields up to 90,000 hours without overhaul? Completely silly. Taking advantage of the aviation gold standard BS is all this is. (Pratt, not you Chip)


It’s actually 3500 hours on the TBM or Pilatus which is another funny little factoid.

It’s resale value, when you’re talking about the old jets like Mike’s, that’s one thing, but when you’re talking about $4 and $5 million SETP’s, you want to have the engine overhauled and you want have it done by Pratt or Standard.

We all hate the increasing cost, but it is what it is.

In the case of this airplane, the overhaul was due, and they decided to have it done because they knew it would be extremely difficult to sell otherwise. As for my client, he’s getting an airplane with a fresh motor and will be able to fly it a few thousand hours before the value really starts to drop.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 04 May 2025, 23:09 
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Most jet buyers don’t want to ride around in a 40 year old plane.

Fantastic, that makes them an even better value to own. Invest all that capital that isn't tied up in the plane and be way ahead.

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You don’t have that option.

There are engine programs for my plane and you do see a plane having it every now and then. It isn't common, or cheap.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 09:34 
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Most jet buyers don’t want to ride around in a 40 year old plane.

Fantastic, that makes them an even better value to own. Invest all that capital that isn't tied up in the plane and be way ahead.

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You don’t have that option.

There are engine programs for my plane and you do see a plane having it every now and then. It isn't common, or cheap.

Mike C.


But, as Bruce said, you really don’t have that option, you can’t put your airplane on a program. If Bruce buys an on program airplane, he can enjoy all of the benefits that he stated, plus he can choose to drop the program or go to a flex type situation where he defers payment until the next event. He has options. You are at the mercy of a bearing going out or a blade getting chunked.

We have seen real world increases in precious metals, this increases the cost of engine work AT ALL SHOPS.

Is there a bit of greed that coincides these increases? Maybe, I’d have to know their actual cost to determine that. I do know that a small increase in hard cost to any manufacturing company factors into a substantial retail price increase.

We have been in an inflationary period, we have some more pain to endure as the current administration deals with this and other issues, plus works through a trade war with China, which will directly effect the cost of some Pratt components.

I’m afraid it will get worse before it gets better, but people will keep flying. Luckily, there are a lot of options that either lower op cost or increase convenience.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 10:23 
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In the case of this airplane, the overhaul was due, and they decided to have it done because they knew it would be extremely difficult to sell otherwise. As for my client, he’s getting an airplane with a fresh motor and will be able to fly it a few thousand hours before the value really starts to drop.

There's a case to be made that doing this way, the seller overhauls, is economically negative.

Let's say the seller overhauls the engine for $1.1M and sells the plane for $4M. He nets $2.9M from the deal.

His $4M sales price will cause capital gains against his depreciation. So he pays more in taxes.

The buyer spends $4M to purchase, so he pays more in sales tax on the transfer.

In many states, there is no sales tax on aviation parts and services, like an overhaul, so that could have been achieved without any sales tax. Indiana is one such state, for example.

The seller, if they have an agent, also pays a percentage of the sales price. That is now based on $4M.

There are also issues with the engine overhaul being require to be capitalized over a number of years per IRS rules, and added complexity for the seller.

In contrast, had the plane been sold for $2.9M with the run out engine and the buyer then overhauls it, they both save money.

The seller spends less commission with his agent and nets less capital gain on his taxes. No engine overhaul capitalization to deal with, either.

The buyer gets charged less sales taxes. His lower value of sale can also help justify a lower property tax bill going forward.

If the buyer does the overhaul, then they hold the warranty with the overhaul shop, too, and perhaps they can make decisions in the overhaul process that favor them, like which shop to use, or decisions during overhaul.

Having the seller do the overhaul in this situation is not always the best idea when you work through the effects.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 10:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
you can’t put your airplane on a program.

JSSI says I can. I looked into it when I bought my plane.

In 2020, the rate was $256.20 per hour per engine once you bought into the program, with a 10 year contract commitment. At the time, that was quite a bit more than FJ44, so I presume the rate has increased like the FJ44 ones have.

The buy in was substantial (a final amount wasn't determined since that required a record review), but they also had a way to smooth that out over a longer period even though I was close to TBO.

They also had a TBO extension feature, FLEX.

None of the above should have been news to a Citation market expert.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 10:48 
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you can’t put your airplane on a program.

JSSI says I can. I looked into it when I bought my plane.

In 2020, the rate was $256.20 per hour per engine once you bought into the program, with a 10 year contract commitment. At the time, that was quite a bit more than FJ44, so I presume the rate has increased like the FJ44 ones have.

The buy in was substantial (a final amount wasn't determined since that required a record review), but they also had a way to smooth that out over a longer period even though I was close to TBO.

They also had a TBO extension feature, FLEX.

None of the above should have been news to a Citation market expert.

Mike C.


You are a funny man.

There's no free lunch Mike. What would be the point of buying into a program when close to TBO? I bet the buy in was substantial... let me guess, about the cost of overhauls? And that was back in 2020 when you had just over 2700 hours on the engines, call them back today.

You're just trying to make up counterpoints to support your assertions, counterpoints that do not exist in the real world.

Why would you extend a TBO on a program? I get why Williams does it, they make more money... but why would the owner do it?

I am a Citation market expert, the vast majority of the Citation market, not just the Citation V.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 11:55 
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Username Protected wrote:
What would be the point of buying into a program when close to TBO?

An owner might do that for these reasons:

They get unscheduled insurance between now and overhaul, plus post overhaul.

They get protection from upside charges at overhaul. This depends a bit on the exact contract language, however.

It makes the program payments operating expenses instead of capital expenses, including the buy in.

An owner may decide that is the right path to take. Saying the option doesn't exist is incorrect.

Also, for FJ44, buying into the program, even at the last hour, is often cheaper than paying for the overhaul. Williams prices it that way on purpose.

Quote:
And that was back in 2020 when you had just over 2700 hours on the engines

I recommend you don't trust your source for this information since it isn't accurate.

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You're just trying to make up counterpoints to support your assertions, counterpoints that do not exist in the real world.

I think JSSI would be amused that they are accused of not existing in the real world.

Quote:
Why would you extend a TBO on a program?

It as an option to lower the program buy in cost if near overhaul.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 13:22 
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What would be the point of buying into a program when close to TBO?

An owner might do that for these reasons:

They get unscheduled insurance between now and overhaul, plus post overhaul.

They get protection from upside charges at overhaul. This depends a bit on the exact contract language, however.

It makes the program payments operating expenses instead of capital expenses, including the buy in.

An owner may decide that is the right path to take. Saying the option doesn't exist is incorrect.

Also, for FJ44, buying into the program, even at the last hour, is often cheaper than paying for the overhaul. Williams prices it that way on purpose.

Quote:
And that was back in 2020 when you had just over 2700 hours on the engines

I recommend you don't trust your source for this information since it isn't accurate.

Quote:
You're just trying to make up counterpoints to support your assertions, counterpoints that do not exist in the real world.

I think JSSI would be amused that they are accused of not existing in the real world.

Quote:
Why would you extend a TBO on a program?

It as an option to lower the program buy in cost if near overhaul.

Mike C.


Now you are trying to sell us on engine programs? :scratch:

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 05 May 2025, 14:22 
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:btt:

I'm not savvy enough to follow the cage match, guys.

Current average market pricing appears to follow this relationship:

Average Asking Price = $1.75mm + $200k * (Mfg Year - 2009)

that curve is good to +/-$250k, with a couple of exceptions. One is a mid-time, newly painted, non-engine program plane which is under contract $250k below that curve (priced well). The other is a mid-time, engine program plane which is $500k above that curve.

The rest all follow that relationship, regardless of engine program, boot status, etc.

I found JetAviva to be an awesome resource, and not outside the curve of what I expect is normal pricing. I'm definitely keeping them in the hunt. There is another broker which is significantly higher than market for apples-to-apples planes, and I won't consider them unless they get more reasonable. When you call someone out on a high price, the reasonable people will say, "the price is always negotiable, the seller might consider X" or "the seller would be interested in your offer". When you get the "this plane is a unicorn, and priced well" without any data to back it up, :shrug:

Now, all of that is pricing. Obviously, the market is going to dictate sales, and the only data I have on that is a plane which was $250k below the curve, fresh paint, good boots, and is under contract. This suggests the transaction price might be in the realm of:

Transaction Price = $1.5mm + $200k * (Mfg Year - 2009)

Now, before you all start banging away at your keyboards telling me this is oversimplified, I'm just sharing the asking price facts as I've found them. Almost all Mustangs are owner flown, and do not get extremely high hours. They're mostly in the ~ 100 hours / year trend. Yes, there is one on market that is way way above that, and it is priced very low, reflecting a need for new engines. It might be perfect for a Mike. I'm too busy to take on that kind of project.

Regarding engine program, the cohort I've reviewed so far are almost all on engine programs and that fact is baked into the asking price. Two are not on a program, and one is well below the curve the other is well above the curve. Takeaway, asking prices are not fundamentally driven by inclusion / exclusion in engine programs.

Where does this lead? I think it says pricing is pretty predictable based upon model year and is not directly or significantly influenced by engine program or other items. Actual transaction price and negotiating strategy would of course leverage facts such as engine program, boot status, maintenance history, etc. But it's not complicated. And of course there are delusional sellers in this cohort too that think that their plane should be priced well above the market in spite of the fact that it is older, higher time, or not on an engine program. Those planes won't sell (at least to me).

:cheers:

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 06 May 2025, 17:21 
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And... if you are willing to branch outside the "US operated / maintained" you can realize a significant savings in acquisition costs. Normally, I've treated this as a hard and fast rule. But! What about an Australian owned/operated 510?

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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 06 May 2025, 19:20 
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The market is pretty smart. There is no free lunch.

That’s why a new market equivalent of a Citation V is five to ten times the cost to acquire. And has a 2+ year wait.

It’s also why you can’t economically buy into an engine program to guarantee predictable costs for old JT15D’s. The real liability to support them vs. owner perception of value doesn’t agree. Simple market dynamics.


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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 06 May 2025, 22:45 
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And... if you are willing to branch outside the "US operated / maintained" you can realize a significant savings in acquisition costs. Normally, I've treated this as a hard and fast rule. But! What about an Australian owned/operated 510?


Always remember, it’s not what you pay for it… it IS the difference between what you pay for it and what you sell it for!


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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 07 May 2025, 00:26 
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And... if you are willing to branch outside the "US operated / maintained" you can realize a significant savings in acquisition costs. Normally, I've treated this as a hard and fast rule. But! What about an Australian owned/operated 510?


Always remember, it’s not what you pay for it… it IS the difference between what you pay for it and what you sell it for!


OK. This is not my "fun" plane. That's the Great Lakes. This is not my "family" plane, there's another solution for that. This is my "Matt and 1 or 2 other people or dogs need to get from point a to b at 320ktas" plane.

So if I buy aircraft A for $3mm, fly for 800 hours and sell it in 10 years (or my heirs do) for $1mm, I've conceded $2mm.

Or, I buy aircraft B for $1.8mm, fly for 800 hours and meet TBO and sell it in 10 years (or my heirs do) for $500k, I've conceded $1.3mm.

If both will do my mission, and I like the P&I how did I go wrong with the less expensive aircraft?

Seriously, since this fleet is maintained under a rigorous DOC schedule, I can't see any economics driving the purchase price other than a) age, b) total time, c) cosmetics and d) a few niggling things that wear out like boots and landing gear parts.

And I've got to say, the hourly rate of the engine program is beneficial if and only if you reach TBO or something major goes boom. The majority of 510s are owner flown and the average of the cohort of 9 planes I've looked at so far average 140 hours per year. Many are less than 100 per year. That means 35 years to TBO. If the plane is on an engine program, fine I'll keep paying it. But if not, I'm not going to lose much sleep. I'll put some money in an index fund like Mike.

Maybe I'm a fool, and I shall part ways with my money soon.
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 Post subject: Re: If the Mustang does your mission, it's darn near perfect
PostPosted: 07 May 2025, 01:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
So if I buy aircraft A for $3mm, fly for 800 hours and sell it in 10 years (or my heirs do) for $1mm, I've conceded $2mm.

Or, I buy aircraft B for $1.8mm, fly for 800 hours and meet TBO and sell it in 10 years (or my heirs do) for $500k, I've conceded $1.3mm.

If both will do my mission, and I like the P&I how did I go wrong with the less expensive aircraft?

The $1.2M more you held in your hand during the 10 years could have been put in an SP500 ETF. That would now be worth $3.6M today (the rise in Sp550 since May 2015 to May 2025). That doesn't include the dividends which add a few points on top of that.

Even if you sold the $3.0M plane for $3.0M, no numeric depreciation, you are still ahead with the cheaper airplane. Meanwhile, the $3M airplane cost more for the sales taxes on purchase, more to insure, and more in property taxes.

You could literally throw the $1.8M airplane away after 10 years and still beat the economics of the $3.0M airplane.

If the $3.0M airplane is on an engine program, say TAP by Williams, you paid for 1500 hours (due to 150 hours per minimum). That adds up to $720K in today dollars. If you instead put that money each year into the ETF, that is now worth about $1.5M.

To say it another way, if you bought the $1.8M airplane 10 years ago, and then invested the money it would have taken to buy the $3.0M airplane and keep it on an engine program, you would have $5.1M in your account today.

Owners really don't understand the huge effect capital costs have on your true total cost of ownership. It is staggering.

Quote:
And I've got to say, the hourly rate of the engine program is beneficial if and only if you reach TBO or something major goes boom.

For most owners, the engine program is about preserving hull value. The airplane is logically "zero SMOH" all the time.

In reality, the cost of the engine program, if otherwise invested, turns into more value than the hull loss from engine hours.

Quote:
Maybe I'm a fool, and I shall part ways with my money soon.

It is not foolish to truly account for capital and program costs.

It is a great time to get into a jet, airplane prices are coming down and fuel is getting cheaper, too.

Mike C.

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