I have to disagree with you Chip on the continuation of low inventory into eternity. Textron is making more aircraft. More Citations are rolling off the line, for example. Daher and Piper and Epic are as well. Cirrus as fast as they can.

Gathering together a lot of the information people have brought to this thread, I think what we are seeing is a SHIFT in general aviation demographics which is the result of numerous factors including the pandemic, a lot of senior airline pilots retiring, the airlines being a total mess, the resulting boom in NetJets and similar carriers creating demand for airframes at the top of the food chain and pilots, government money influx to some people including those who want to chase a job at the airlines or NetJets type business.

All of that boils down to two significant factors in my opinion.

First, a pull from the top (Citations, Gulfstreams, Challengers being in high demand, and the need for pilots for them), with wealthy people wanting to travel that way instead of the cattle car airlines.

Second, a push from the bottom (flight schools) gobbling up every trainer they can find, to support their new clients who want into the industry. When they bought all those 152s, 172s, Archers etc, the sellers went on to buy Bonanzas, 210s, and Mooneys. Those sellers went on to buy JetProps, TBMs, and King Airs. Those sellers are looking for the aircraft gobbled up by NetJets and the copycats. I know I could sell my Bo for 20% more than I bought it for 3 years ago.

So, in summary, I don’t think there’s more flying going on except at the extremes of the flight schools and the private charters and fractional owners.

Oh, and the biggest factor? My guess is the wives. They REALLY didn’t like flying commercial during the pandemic so the stories I hear is that many wives went from “why do we own a small airplane?” to “”we have to keep that airplane in case we need to get somewhere and the airlines fail or are unsafe”.

Yeah, if you represent the high end turbine market I’m sure it’s tough. But the lower levels are just moving really fast. Inventory comes and goes as everyone trades up. But I predict it’s going to settle down now and return to sanity by the end of the year.

Only if demand continued to increase at the highest echelon (more millionaires flying private) would it make sense that low inventory is going to be a constant. The shift has happened. The rich are flying private, everything else is adjusting. It’s going to be ok.

KRHV cannot be a barometer of GA activity in general. It is being explicitly killed.

I used to be based there in the late 1980s and things have gotten so much worse since then. I can't imagine ever wanting to go back to being based in CA.

Mike C.

Memories are short around here.

Again, I keep hearing in this thread that the "rich are flying private now and once they have a taste for that, there's no going back". Just watch how well these statements will age when the money goes away. The absolute first thing to go will be private aviation when a business hits a bump. The very first.

Let's just revisit this thread in a few years and see.

That's not untrue. GA will have peaks and valleys.

But there are a LOT of rich people who were perfectly content to fly commercial first class for $1000/seat NY to FL who though paying $20K for a private charter was silly. They got a taste of private during covid and they're hooked.

GA demand expansion among people who always had (and will always have) the money but never had the interest is a fundamental shift and won't go away.

That's not untrue. GA will have peaks and valleys.

But there are a LOT of rich people who were perfectly content to fly commercial first class for $1000/seat NY to FL who though paying $20K for a private charter was silly. They got a taste of private during covid and they're hooked.

GA demand expansion among people who always had (and will always have) the money but never had the interest is a fundamental shift and won't go away.

That's not untrue. GA will have peaks and valleys.

But there are a LOT of rich people who were perfectly content to fly commercial first class for $1000/seat NY to FL who though paying $20K for a private charter was silly. They got a taste of private during covid and they're hooked.

GA demand expansion among people who always had (and will always have) the money but never had the interest is a fundamental shift and won't go away.

KRHV cannot be a barometer of GA activity in general. It is being explicitly killed.

I used to be based there in the late 1980s and things have gotten so much worse since then. I can't imagine ever wanting to go back to being based in CA.

Mike C.

I've got a friend that talks to me about flying private all the time. He is probably worth $60-80M and doesn't think he can afford it unless he had a business use to carry it.

He isn't a pilot and doesn't want to be one, doesn't want to own an older jet, doesn't trust low cost operations, doesn't want something that isn't at least coast-to-coast capable, so he's flying AA first class even through COVID.

Crazy world.

I've got a friend that talks to me about flying private all the time. He is probably worth $60-80M and doesn't think he can afford it unless he had a business use to carry it.

He isn't a pilot and doesn't want to be one, doesn't want to own an older jet, doesn't trust low cost operations, doesn't want something that isn't at least coast-to-coast capable, so he's flying AA first class even through COVID.

Crazy world.

Your friend is right in the sweet spot for Wheels-Up.

When these couples hit their 80’s and face the challenge, when one or the other isn’t really ambulatory, that roll me up to the air stairs at the uncrowded FBO may be the only option for continued travel. If it’s just you, a $3,000 business class isn’t too bad. If you, momma who can’t walk, and/or the grandkids/ friends. Charter looks pretty good.

I really hadn't kept up with all the charter operations options, but that might be a really good idea for him. The medical side really got me thinking about it.

Thanks for the suggestion.

Your friend is right in the sweet spot for Wheels-Up.

When these couples hit their 80’s and face the challenge, when one or the other isn’t really ambulatory, that roll me up to the air stairs at the uncrowded FBO may be the only option for continued travel. If it’s just you, a $3,000 business class isn’t too bad. If you, momma who can’t walk, and/or the grandkids/ friends. Charter looks pretty good.

If you’re interested in a more complete picture, this might be of interest…or perhaps this is where you cherry picked the number.

https://privatejetcardcomparisons.com/2 ... hats-next/

If you’re interested in a more complete picture, this might be of interest…or perhaps this is where you cherry picked the number.

https://privatejetcardcomparisons.com/2 ... hats-next/