Still low, which is good for aviation.

It was "critically low" only for people who make money related to the selling of airplanes.

Having more planes flying more hours is good for aviation overall.

Mike C.

It was "critically low" only for people who make money related to the selling of airplanes.

Having more planes flying more hours is good for aviation overall.

Mike C.

From the beginning, I've been simply stating facts about PPP money and its impact. Facts, not conjecture. . Phillip's post is a recounting of what actually happened, and I appreciate his stating his personal experience. My business has been, for over a decade, asset heavy and employee light. My PPP receipts were minuscule compared to businesses with fewer assets but more employees.

It is my opinion that PPP funds were the number one driver for the explosion of aircraft purchases, but it is not like a water faucet. The end of PPP funds will not see an equally short reversion to whatever the new normal is to be. NOTHING IS QUITE THAT SIMPLE.

A huge factor in the return of these airplanes to the market will be that most were, to some degree, financed. The PPP funds were not simply used to buy "stuff", including airplanes, the funds were used as down payments to finance airplanes. The outstanding debt on these airplanes, as much as anything else, will delay their return to the market. That is clearly reflected in the repossession occurring in the automobile market.

Still, the cycle of ownership will continue. Most "new" owners will use their new toys less than they expected, be surprised at the on going cost of ownership in insurance, maintenance, etc. and will, eventually, be looking to rid themselves of a non-productive asset. It is not a new story, just one that repeats itself over and over due to the short memory of buyers and sellers.

But, PPP funds, and other hand outs during covid, were a "unique" market phenomenon. Never has so much money been handed over to so many to the benefit of so few. Only a complete fool could not have predicted the inflation that we are now being subjected to. Unfortunately, I was not positioned to benefit from this free for all. In fact, I was on the short end of the stick will less demand for commercial rentals, sky rocketing maintenance cost, and a dirth of available labor. The good news is that I entered this economic catastrophe free of debt and with adequate liquid assets.

Market adjustments are nothing but "business as usual". The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Jg

Does your self promotion mode have an off switch?

No great disaster befalls us if most planes are not for sale and are being actively flown. Thus low inventory is not "critical" for anything. Indeed, there are probably hundreds of planes that have been saved from the junkyard by current conditions, they are now worth fixing up and upgrading. This is a great time in personal aviation.

Mike C.

Does your self promotion mode have an off switch?

No great disaster befalls us if most planes are not for sale and are being actively flown. Thus low inventory is not "critical" for anything. Indeed, there are probably hundreds of planes that have been saved from the junkyard by current conditions, they are now worth fixing up and upgrading. This is a great time in personal aviation.

Mike C.

Does your self promotion mode have an off switch?

No great disaster befalls us if most planes are not for sale and are being actively flown. Thus low inventory is not "critical" for anything. Indeed, there are probably hundreds of planes that have been saved from the junkyard by current conditions, they are now worth fixing up and upgrading. This is a great time in personal aviation.

Mike C.

I don't mind Chip promoting himself at all. Chip has insights to portions of the market many of us do not see. He didn't see the PPP money as closely as I did, but my vision, for a large part, was completely non-aviation related.

Obviously, the aviation market is not one market, but several, each clearly segmented.

As for Chip's market knowledge. He's put the final nail in my King Air aspirations with solid answers to my many questions.

Jg

I don't want BT to be a morass of commercially motivation posts by sponsors.

BT is one of the few sanctuaries in the Internet where ideas are exchanged by individuals and not polluted by commercialism. If that isn't maintained, BT loses value.

I am grateful not every BT sponsor uses the self promotion privileges that excessively.

Mike C.

I don't want BT to be a morass of commercially motivation posts by sponsors.

BT is one of the few sanctuaries in the Internet where ideas are exchanged by individuals and not polluted by commercialism. If that isn't maintained, BT loses value.

I am grateful not every BT sponsor uses the self promotion privileges that excessively.

Mike C.

I have a theory that Mike sees all salespeople as inefficiency to a perfect market. He is so darn smart and willing to invest a ton of time in doing all the work himself. He can’t understand why anyone would see value in salespeople. Yet most every company in the world has an “S” in their SGA expenses.

We are all built different. I’m not sure why Mike goes out of his way to carry on against Chip.

I bought a MU-2 in no small part because of Mike. But I employed salespeople to help transact the sales.

Hangar mate sold her Piper 140 Warrior, which I would describe in poor condition and out of annual, in two hours after putting it up for sale today. Buyer was an owner of a pipeline inspection company that normally uses C-177 Cardinals. Says they are desparate for airplanes and the market is very tight even at the low end.

Mike,

I truly respect your insights. You take the time to research issues to death, to other reader's benefit. But? have you thought of the similarity between you and Chip and other members who are in aviation commercially. They research issues to death too, everyday, in the conduct of their business. Can you imagine the valuable information Neal Schwartz could impart if he wasn't so busy selling airplanes?

So, I appreciate both of you who have "special" knowledge on certain aviation subjects. If it weren't for BT being a gold mine of information, I'd be gone a long time ago.

Jg

I don't want BT to be a morass of commercially motivation posts by sponsors.

BT is one of the few sanctuaries in the Internet where ideas are exchanged by individuals and not polluted by commercialism. If that isn't maintained, BT loses value.

I am grateful not every BT sponsor uses the self promotion privileges that excessively.

Mike C.

I don't really care all that much but I'd guess Chip outposts whoever is the #2 active sponsor by about 10:1. He also starts controversial threads, which is either an underhanded way to self-promote or evidence he's a good salesman (or both!).