I just sold half my plane to an entrepreneur who values his time, flexibility and ease of travel. Didn’t want to fly the airlines anymore and can afford not to. Just like me.

I am in the turbine engine aftermarket for business and GA and we have seen supplies of used engines to be much more scarce. I predict a slow reversal with the airline mask mandate lifted and fuel prices on the rise. There are lots of factors in play, but those two will drive a significant shift in my opinion.

Well done Tony. Helps that prices are so high right now.

This is the key point. Private aviation is great for a lot of things, but non-business big-city to big-city isn't it. Wealthy people going from NY to Florida were really pretty well served by first class airline travel. Covid changed that.

Plenty of people who could easily pay $50,000 for a Citation trip but chose to pay $5000 for a 737 trip have moved to the citation. That's probably a stable and fundamental change in the market that will take a generation of airframe, pilot and infrastructure production to support.

We will be entering a fairly nasty recession later this year or early 2023. The Fed does not want to be seen as bailing out the rich people (more QE to support the stock market) while the middle and lower classes are being hammered by inflation.

I believe the "Fed Put" is much lower than it has been in the past (around 3,000 for the S&P).

The layoffs have already started at some of the dodgier companies (Netflix let some people go today).

I agree that the disaster that was PPP and other COVID relief bills were just giveaways and there is/was a metric ton of cash sloshing around. But I think a lot of it was invested and those investments are going to sour. Plus, the cost of running a jet has gone up an insane amount in a very short time.

It will be interesting to watch.

A friend was planning on a 500k remodel on their house, contractor came back and said the price is now 750k. Why? Inflation! Needless to say they pumped the breaks... will either find a new contractor or just wait. Everything will come back to earth, now is not the time to buy an airplane.

Netflix should lay off all of their people based on lack of content!

Netflix should lay off all of their people based on lack of content!

Yep. They only have 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows.
Nothing to watch there...

Sorry, I should have said lack of NEW content. Other than Ozark it seems that most of the 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows are the same ones they've had for years.

I have also noticed that they do a horrible job of presenting their new content. I assume this is because they want people to dig for it and watch something else they find along the way?

We were planning on doing some major renovation of our modest farmhouse. 3 years ago we did all the planning and architecture. Then this hit and we decided to wait because your house is currently worth double what we paid for it. Now when this market corrects I figure it will adjust and we’re ok with that at this point, as we were planning on about $200k. Now the materials have nearly doubled the estimate and by the time we’re done (if it would get finished with the supply chain issues) our tax assessor would likely have a field day as our house is already small by the community average. I assume once the taxes hit they won’t go down (here in Illinois) so we’ll save the money. Unfortunately we were going to shop for a plane with the idea of a turbine in 5-6 years and that has been shot to hell if prices stay the same too. Oh well. I know this will adjust itself some eventually but I don’t know how soon.

Stranger Things Season 4 is out next week!

We were planning on doing some major renovation of our modest farmhouse. 3 years ago we did all the planning and architecture. Then this hit and we decided to wait because your house is currently worth double what we paid for it. Now when this market corrects I figure it will adjust and we’re ok with that at this point, as we were planning on about $200k. Now the materials have nearly doubled the estimate and by the time we’re done (if it would get finished with the supply chain issues) our tax assessor would likely have a field day as our house is already small by the community average. I assume once the taxes hit they won’t go down (here in Illinois) so we’ll save the money. Unfortunately we were going to shop for a plane with the idea of a turbine in 5-6 years and that has been shot to hell if prices stay the same too. Oh well. I know this will adjust itself some eventually but I don’t know how soon.

An article from last month. Add to that what the markets are doing, and I'd say crazy pricing is on the way out. At least of the high variety....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-04-26/

Agree, Chip can bring a buyer with $2m over market for my plane and I wouldn’t part ways, wouldn’t even consider it

Good luck out there