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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 08:59 
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Username Protected wrote:
Well off <$5M in assets (you get a nice Cirrus or Baron)
Really Well off < $10M in assets (nice 421, Navajo or timed out TBM)
Rich < $30M in assets (nice turboprop)
Really Rich <$100M in assets (jet territory)
Super Rich <$200M in assets (new jet territory)
Uber Rich <$1B in assets (Cessna sends you "thinking of you" cards)
Ludicrously Rich <$2B in assets (Gulfstream sends a "thinking of you" card)
Plaid >$2B in assets. Once you're past here, it doesn't really matter.

You need $100M to have a jet?

Glad I didn't know that.

Mike C.

If you read it carefully, you need to be >$30M and <$100M.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 09:33 
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Username Protected wrote:
Well off <$5M in assets (you get a nice Cirrus or Baron)
Really Well off < $10M in assets (nice 421, Navajo or timed out TBM)
Rich < $30M in assets (nice turboprop)
Really Rich <$100M in assets (jet territory)
Super Rich <$200M in assets (new jet territory)
Uber Rich <$1B in assets (Cessna sends you "thinking of you" cards)
Ludicrously Rich <$2B in assets (Gulfstream sends a "thinking of you" card)
Plaid >$2B in assets. Once you're past here, it doesn't really matter.

If you read it carefully, you need to be >$30M and <$100M.


I caught that as well, with a chuckle.

It is extremely hard to talk in general terms about jets because a jet can be a million dollars or one hundred million dollars.

I think part of Rich’s point is, there’s a lot of people in this country that fall into the brackets above. I read somewhere that 40,000 US families have a net worth north of $50 Million! Obviously only a small number of those families own a jet.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 10:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
Abram and Israel,

I am pretty sure you got my point. Several factors created a "perfect storm" for certain models of aircraft. One of the reasons most often given is to avoid airlines. Having used an airplane for transportation in my business for over 40 years, I know only too well the limitations of GA airplanes. "Time to spare, go by air". Chip deals in the turboprop/jet world, a different scenario all together. The real reason for the flood of buyers was a mass of government money that made down payments easy.

The truth is, reflected in Chip's market and in the market defined by my friend in the business that I quoted, there is a critical shortage of certain models of aircraft. Everyone else is standing on the sidelines, holding their hand up, and hollering "me too, me too".

Jg


I suspect that the extra money for down payments was a factor for many people. Interest rates are also negative which means borrowing costs little to nothing right now. And loan payoffs to banks are unprecedented and banks are awash in cash. That doesn't necessarily mean credit is looser but lenders are anxious to make loans to borrowers with good credit and demonstrated capability to pay back.

I tried to eliminate airline travel when I had a piston airplane and you can just about do it going anywhere but it takes a lot of planning, effort, time and fatigue. In short, it's not easy. People buying jets and turbo props (especially that aren't pilots) are looking for easy and more time. I had lunch with someone yesterday that owns a Falcon 50. That's what he's buying. Me too.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 10:25 
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Username Protected wrote:
Some inventory is becoming available.
China Evergrande, Strapped for Cash, Offloads Its Jets


Best part of the article is the term “ aircraft investors”.

I suggest we all use the smarter and more sophisticated “aircraft investor” insead of:

“Aircraft owner”
“Aircraft collecter”
“Airplane nut”
“Caretaker”
and
“Compulsive aircraft hoarder”
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 11:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
I suggest we all use the smarter and more sophisticated “aircraft investor” insead of:

“Aircraft owner”
“Aircraft collecter”
“Airplane nut”
“Caretaker”
and
“Compulsive aircraft hoarder”

I personally like "aircraft curator". That sounds high class, no?

I don't really "own" an airplane, I "curate" it. I tend to do what it wants, not the other way around, thus it is an obligation, a demanding one at times.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 12:44 
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Username Protected wrote:
I caught that as well, with a chuckle.

It is extremely hard to talk in general terms about jets because a jet can be a million dollars or one hundred million dollars.

I think part of Rich’s point is, there’s a lot of people in this country that fall into the brackets above. I read somewhere that 40,000 US families have a net worth north of $50 Million! Obviously only a small number of those families own a jet.


There is a stupid amount of money sloshing around, and as always, Florida is a good place to watch the waves. People of modest means are stroking checks for near million dollar homes around here like they're going out of style. Maybe the buyers aren't rich, but the sellers are sure getting that way.

The above chart assumes no "business" use of the airplane, facilitating expense write off and my own personal gut feeling...IE no way I'd get involved with any kind of turbine unless I had 10 millie in the bank, because I have no business use for it, but hey that's just me.

OTOH, I have watched jets roll in with nothing but the dogs. That's PBI for you. There are people here who have zero concept of money, simply because they have so much of it. Good on them.

The other thread about "building a business just to sell" is a great example of that.

Best,
Rich


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:05 
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Username Protected wrote:
I caught that as well, with a chuckle.

It is extremely hard to talk in general terms about jets because a jet can be a million dollars or one hundred million dollars.

I think part of Rich’s point is, there’s a lot of people in this country that fall into the brackets above. I read somewhere that 40,000 US families have a net worth north of $50 Million! Obviously only a small number of those families own a jet.


There is a stupid amount of money sloshing around, and as always, Florida is a good place to watch the waves. People of modest means are stroking checks for near million dollar homes around here like they're going out of style. Maybe the buyers aren't rich, but the sellers are sure getting that way.

The above chart assumes no "business" use of the airplane, facilitating expense write off and my own personal gut feeling...IE no way I'd get involved with any kind of turbine unless I had 10 millie in the bank, because I have no business use for it, but hey that's just me.

OTOH, I have watched jets roll in with nothing but the dogs. That's PBI for you. There are people here who have zero concept of money, simply because they have so much of it. Good on them.

The other thread about "building a business just to sell" is a great example of that.

Best,
Rich


Well, I'm certainly not one of the 40,000 families worth $50 million, but I'm in the income bracket that I won't be paying a penny more in taxes. :

Last edited on 06 Nov 2021, 13:11, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:07 
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Username Protected wrote:

Well, I'm certainly not one of the 40,000 families worth $50 million, but I'm in the income bracket that Brandon says I won't be paying a penny more in taxes. :liar:


Take your political comments elsewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:16 
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Username Protected wrote:

Well, I'm certainly not one of the 40,000 families worth $50 million, but I'm in the income bracket that Brandon says I won't be paying a penny more in taxes. :liar:


Take your political comments elsewhere.


I couldn't delete it John, so i changed it trying not to ruffle your feathers, and maybe some others sensitive to such comments. But the comment lives on in your quote, but you could delete that if you don't want it to be seen.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:19 
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Username Protected wrote:
I read somewhere that 40,000 US families have a net worth north of $50 Million! Obviously only a small number of those families own a jet.


Let's be honest, most people what can afford a jet who aren't pilots and don't own an aircraft don't want the hassle or expense (perceived or otherwise) of owning and operating jet. That's why NetJets, XO Jet, etc exist. P

The last year for which data is publicly available (2016), there were 18,995 households in the US with net Assets of greater than $50mm. I would bet that the percentage of those households with access to and significant use of private aviation, either through direct ownership, use of company aviation assets, or jet cards is upwards of 75%. I'd also argue that most of those people aren't just "lucky sperm," but they acquired their wealth through building a business - meaning they're not in the business of being stupid about spending, particularly on things they don't understand.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:31 
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Username Protected wrote:
I'd also argue that most of those people aren't just "lucky sperm," but they acquired their wealth through building a business - meaning they're not in the business of being stupid about spending, particularly on things they don't understand.


My guess is that a good fraction of those made their money the old fashion way...they inherited it. Which is totally cool, but I think ascribing 100% to hard work is a bit generous. Some faction of that probably took their head start and make things even better for themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 13:43 
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Username Protected wrote:
I'd also argue that most of those people aren't just "lucky sperm," but they acquired their wealth through building a business - meaning they're not in the business of being stupid about spending, particularly on things they don't understand.


My guess is that a good fraction of those made their money the old fashion way...they inherited it. Which is totally cool, but I think ascribing 100% to hard work is a bit generous. Some faction of that probably took their head start and make things even better for themselves.


You'd be correct, there is some of that, but the same IRS statistics would show you that the percentage is significantly lower than you'd expect...roughly 21% of wealth in the US is inherited.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 06 Nov 2021, 23:04 
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The fractionals have been popular for a long time, and they continue to grow, but I’ve compared fractionals to typical owner/operator stats, and the fractionals are about 10X more expensive. Granted, they have a different operating model (Part 121, crews, dispatchers, salespeople, etc.). However, many users that fly significant fractional hours are starting to discover the cost of owning with a hired pilot/manager is more economical. That puts more people in the market to buy a jet. The shortage continues.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 07 Nov 2021, 00:30 
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Username Protected wrote:
My guess is that a good fraction of those made their money the old fashion way...they inherited it.

None of the top 10 richest persons inherited their money. They are predominately high tech founders who started with almost nothing.

Most wealth is created, not inherited.

Most wealth is equity, on paper, value derived entirely from the perception of value. This is why the net worth of these individuals bounces around all the time, the stock prices are changing.

The general public think it is piles of cash, not so.

Tax the holdings of billionaires will backfire. This will require them to sell stocks to the general public to raise the cash to pay the tax bill. The fact the main guy is selling his stock will lower the perception of value of the stock. Say Elon Musk dumps a chunk of SpaceX or Tesla. The general public who hold that stock will see a value lost. Also, the revenue generated is cash removed from the economy and handed to the government, which will slow down the economy. Somebody has to actually spend their cash to buy the billionaires stock so he can send that to the government. In effect it is a tax on the general population when all of the effects are accounted for.

If Elon Musk "goes to cash", sells his entire equity position, the stock price will go to near zero. There's not enough cash out there to absorb that kind of purchase size.

Billionaires actually don't have a billion dollars. They have pieces of "paper", stocks, which we, the general public, set the value of.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 07 Nov 2021, 00:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
My guess is that a good fraction of those made their money the old fashion way...they inherited it.

None of the top 10 richest persons inherited their money. They are predominately high tech founders who started with almost nothing.

Most wealth is created, not inherited.

Most wealth is equity, on paper, value derived entirely from the perception of value. This is why the net worth of these individuals bounces around all the time, the stock prices are changing.

The general public think it is piles of cash, not so.

Tax the holdings of billionaires will backfire. This will require them to sell stocks to the general public to raise the cash to pay the tax bill. The fact the main guy is selling his stock will lower the perception of value of the stock. Say Elon Musk dumps a chunk of SpaceX or Tesla. The general public who hold that stock will see a value lost. Also, the revenue generated is cash removed from the economy and handed to the government, which will slow down the economy. Somebody has to actually spend their cash to buy the billionaires stock so he can send that to the government. In effect it is a tax on the general population when all of the effects are accounted for.

If Elon Musk "goes to cash", sells his entire equity position, the stock price will go to near zero. There's not enough cash out there to absorb that kind of purchase size.

Billionaires actually don't have a billion dollars. They have pieces of "paper", stocks, which we, the general public, set the value of.

Mike C.


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