If you’re a manufacturer of new airplanes, then yes problem. For the rest of us not so much.

What the heck makes you owners of legacy planes think you are in the cat bird seat.

As the pilot population declines and legacy aircraft wear out there will be a decline in value.

Wear and tear on the airframe, parts problems, future insurance more difficult and a reducing number of buyers.

You are currently in a bubble that will not last.

The plane was fully depreciated when I bought it.

It’s current value is purely a function of its viability as a method of transportation.

We all know you make the deal work when you buy not when you sell.

I disagree. I think the high prices will remain barring severe economic recession. It's a diminishing float in trading terms. The new aircraft entering the market are at best breaking even with crashed, corroded, and scrapped aircraft. The percentage of the population who can afford a late model aircraft is also a fraction of those who can afford older planes.

Dupe

So I’ve heard…

I think the winner is going to be avionics shops. It may become viable to totally refurb an aircraft for profit. There may be a market for 20th century airframes ... but not 20th century paint/panel/engines

What is really confusing is that, according to fuel sales, the use of the flyable airplanes has not increased. And, last time I saw figures, the pilot population is decreasing.

Have either of these figures seen increases lately?

Gerald, you usually keep these figures at your fingertips.

And, by the way, I need to talk to you and mine more of your thoughts than you are going to post here.

Jg

Through 2018 hours and fuel use were up as a 20 year trend.

I don’t have more recent data but I know since March of 2020 operations at my local airport are wayyy up. Went from usually being by myself on any given Saturday to usually having three or four in the pattern.

The long term trend that I see in the data is fewer pilots flying more. A bunch of the $100 hamburger guys are timing out, but the people who use the system for real point to point travel are more than making up for that in total fuel consumption, and thats what drives the infrastructure since it is where the money for all of the ground infrastructure comes from.

John numbers are up a little, back to pre covid.

Some sometimes it’s best to just be quite and let them be Wrong!!
I will call you.

American Champion is right down the road from me.
I've had a tour of their shop.
Very nice place and quality work.

Pilot population is going down for sure

Hours flown going down for sure.

BUT .... they're making a lot more new pilots than new airplanes.

So the question isn't "will GA shrink" ... it has and will likely continue

The question is "Will the stock of desirable airplanes shrink faster or slower than the pilot population"

Those pilot population numbers are miss leading because the don’t break out the number of new pilots that are foreign students that don’t stay and fly in the US.

IF the foreign students that got US license’s were removed the numbers would change significantly.

I could believe the number of foreign students in the US is going down due to tougher rules about who can be trained and the general hostility the USA has shown for foreigners in recent years, plus COVID now.

I hear of more overseas training facilities being setup precisely for this reason.

Also, this is the number of "active" pilots, so as long as the number goes up, that's more activity here in the USA.

Mike C.