I've posted a lot on here and written numerous articles for different publications about the turbine aircraft market.

My deepest desire is to help aircraft buyers, everything I do is based on that core principle.

Here are my two immediate thoughts;

1. This market is crazy volatile... don't do anything stupid. Just because the market is nuts, that doesn't mean you have to participate, we're still buying airplanes at normal prices.

2. If you are serious about buying an airplane, let's do it now. The closer you wait until the end of the year the worse it is going to get.

What happens when the RE market tanks again and the DJIA pulls back, both of which will, happen sooner than later?

Are you concluding the smart money is in jets right now?

I can understand, sort of, wanting to get in before prices get even crazier.
But airplanes as a store of value and/or an inflation hedge, not so much.

Inflation will take a bite out of GA as well. I seriously doubt that fuel, maintenance,
hangar rents and other things aviation will be immune if we get serious inflation.
The price of that stuff will go up as well, and while some parts of GA are price inelastic,
others will show the signs of price/demand elasticity. Inflation provides some artificial
growth in revenue, profits, etc. but ultimately has a very negative effect on real economic health.

If we get James Earl Carter style stagflation, zero to no economic growth, coupled with
inflation, all bets are off.

Be afraid when everyone else is confident, be confident when everyone else is afraid.

Inflation or Deflation is the question right now. There are very smart people making very persuasive arguments on both sides. I don't know how it will come out in the wash. I am hedging higher fuel prices w/ a generous amount of investment in oil company stock

We went ahead and pulled the trigger because we found the right plane for us. While there will probably be a shake-out in the next year or 2, we didn't want to miss out on that time with a more capable aircraft.

If you have the crystal ball that tells the date of the pullback, let us know!

I was hearing this last year before I went plane shopping. Since then I've flown 300+ hours. I'm not going to comment on the value of the aircraft since I plunked money down, but the 300 hours gave me a LOT of value - both financial and emotional.

Life's short. You can forever wait on the sidelines for the next crisis (there's always one coming) or you can head out onto the field, plow forward, and take a few hits.

If you have the crystal ball that tells the date of the pullback, let us know!

I was hearing this last year before I went plane shopping. Since then I've flown 300+ hours. I'm not going to comment on the value of the aircraft since I plunked money down, but the 300 hours gave me a LOT of value - both financial and emotional.

Life's short. You can forever wait on the sidelines for the next crisis (there's always one coming) or you can head out onto the field, plow forward, and take a few hits.

Inflation consumer goods and necessities.
Deflation non-income producing assets. Real estate cannot go up forever. In the past several decades, growth in real estate prices has consistently outstripped grow in both GDP and average income. Also, commercial real estate, both retail and office space, will be a long time in recovering from COVID impact.

If this happens, will be the worst of both worlds. Increasing cost of every day life. Expensive, long lived assets under water relative to most recent price paid and debt incurred.

Whatever happens it will be both interesting and painful. Growth in money supply has far outstripped growth in real GDP. Cannot end well.

But point well taken on the advantages of more capable A/C in the meantime.

Potentially interesting historic corollary.... Spanish flu epidemic and resulting hit to economy, followed by Roaring Twenties... followed by Great Depression and Wall Street Crash. Does this pattern look ominously familiar?

Is there a ball park number on when to rent as opposed to when to buy in terms of hours of use?

I realize there are many variables, but generally speaking.

Like, less than 200, rent.
More than 200, buy?

I apologize for the ignorance of my question.



It's just that seeing that commercial for BAJ run so often makes me wonder.

I would like to take this opportunity to announce to the world that as of two days ago, I put 399 hours on my Conquest in 12 months. My personal best.

(Quick visual of me patting myself on the back).

Just looking at the rough numbers for me, the break even is around 100 hours vs what the local twins are going for. The benefit is in the condition of the equipment, its features, and its availability. More than 100 hours it swings in ownership's favor. I don't know how it scales for a single, but the math is fairly straightforward. You need to figure out what your fixed and hourly costs are going to be and then plot the combination out against hours.

Thank you, but I'm taking turbines.
I've gotta believe that's a different game.

What prompted my question was the thread started by Chase,
and that incessant BAJ tv commercial.
TV time costs money so they must be making it.

Generally about 100 hours seems to be the break, obviously it depends on the aircraft and if you want to retain possession.

Same calculations apply, just multiply by a bazillion.

For a jet the fixed expenses are much larger. You have all of the usual (hangar, insurance, inspections, etc.) except that all of those are more expensive, and you also have recurrent training, and payroll (if you have a pilot). There will be a break even, obviously, because yes those operators like BAJ are making a profit along with a good margin, but there's also the aggravation factor that goes with your own plane, so how much is it worth to you to just show up and go vs having your own?