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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 01:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
But is that single engine twice the costs of two small ones?

Seems to be true for piston engines.

Buy one 300 HP engine, or two 150 HP engines, about the same total price.

When things are made in small batches, building twice as many is *way* less than twice the cost. Most of the build is setup cost.

Combine twice as much volume, parts that are smaller, yes, the two smaller engines can be the same price as one larger.

Especially when you include the various other factors such as insurance, development amortization, support, certification, etc.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 01:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
Mustang engines are $1mm each.

Not on an OEM contract.

Cessna didn't ship a $3M airplane with $2M of engines on it.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 06:27 
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Username Protected wrote:
But is that single engine twice the costs of two small ones?

Seems to be true for piston engines.

Buy one 300 HP engine, or two 150 HP engines, about the same total price.

Mike C.

That’s piston think!
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 09:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
4. Selling only one engine means only one engine program payment and loss of future recurring revenue.


So, then a single engine is cheaper! Thank you for confirming this!

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 10:17 
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Username Protected wrote:
Why do people make the assumption that two engines is cheaper to manufacture than one?

1. Smaller is cheaper to make. Less materials, made on smaller machines, easier assembly, etc.

2. An engine on a single is higher liability. Selling one engine means all liability is included in one engine cost.

3. Selling half as many engines means twice the amortized development and support costs per unit.

4. Selling only one engine means only one engine program payment and loss of future recurring revenue.

An FJ44 is really a far more expensive engine than a PW610F.

The Eclipse bankruptcy exposed the contract with PWC for PW610F engines. Eclipse was getting them at ~$280K each in 2008. That's about $320K today using CPI-W.

I doubt you can buy an FJ33-5A for twice that.

Mike C.

1 Mustang engine isn't half the horsepower of 1 SF50 engine.

SETP owners don't do engine programs. Why would an SF50 owner?

2008 was 11 years ago and Eclipse was a shell game. Meaningless info.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 10:42 
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Username Protected wrote:
1 Mustang engine isn't half the horsepower of 1 SF50 engine.

The PW610F on the Eclipse EA500 is 900 pounds thrust each, 1800 pounds total.

The FJ33-5A on the SF50 is 1846 pounds thrust.

The twin engines are less than half the rating of the single engine on the same weight airplane. The EA500 goes higher, farther, faster, on less fuel. It also climbs when an engine fails.

Quote:
SETP owners don't do engine programs.

SETP engines have independent shops that can do HSI and OH.

Quote:
Why would an SF50 owner?

No independent shops for FJ33 work, Williams makes out of contract HSI and OH more expensive than being on program.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 10:53 
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Eclipse is meaningless info. I said "Mustang"


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 12:12 
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A Mustang engine is 80% of the SF50 engine thrust. Nobody ever told me engines are sold by $/lb. of thrust. That’s a new one. Sure, bigger engines cost more than smaller engines, but that’s a really general statement.

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 12:50 
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this thread is turning into a train wreck and I have to keep watching


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 12:55 
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Username Protected wrote:
this thread is turning into a train wreck and I have to keep watching

It turned into a train wreck a few years ago. It's in it's death throes now.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 15:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
Why do people make the assumption that two engines is cheaper to manufacture than one?

1. Smaller is cheaper to make. Less materials, made on smaller machines, easier assembly, etc.

2. An engine on a single is higher liability. Selling one engine means all liability is included in one engine cost.

3. Selling half as many engines means twice the amortized development and support costs per unit.

4. Selling only one engine means only one engine program payment and loss of future recurring revenue.

An FJ44 is really a far more expensive engine than a PW610F.

The Eclipse bankruptcy exposed the contract with PWC for PW610F engines. Eclipse was getting them at ~$280K each in 2008. That's about $320K today using CPI-W.

I doubt you can buy an FJ33-5A for twice that.

Mike C.


I don’t really want to play in this pool with Mike, but does anyone see that Mike’s points are mostly assumptions? Not fact based data?
Material content of these engines, large or small, are but a small fraction of their cost and price.
Whether they person who is assembling the fan uses 4” blades or 6” blades doesn’t change the labor time to do it. The delta in material is a rounding error.
Every airplane manufacturer is making small volumes.
I doubtt SF50’s will be on engine programs.
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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 15:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
I doubtt SF50’s will be on engine programs.

Really? Running a Willliams turbofan off program? Bold!


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 15:28 
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Username Protected wrote:
I doubt SF50’s will be on engine programs.


So far, the second hand ones I've seen have all been on the program. The program is all inclusive of airframe maintenance, engine program and training. Buy the plane, insurance, hangar, gas and the program covers everything else.

@200hrs/yr, it's $333/hr.

https://cirrusaircraft.com/jetstream/

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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 15:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
does anyone see that Mike’s points are mostly assumptions? Not fact based data?
The one, the only data point he has is Eclipse. Which collapsed taking billions of investor dollars with it. It's rather like claiming it's possible to make 12% per year on the stockmarket every year because Bernie Madoff did it. So yeah, I guess if you can get someone to write off billions into your project that you don't have to make a profit or pay back then sure, it can be done. But not otherwise.

In the real world, no new piston twin (Baron, Twin Comanche, Seneca) was ever cheaper than the equivalent single (Bonanza, Comanche, Saratoga).
No new PT6 twin was ever cheaper than the equivalent single.
New quad jets are more expensive than twin jets even on the same airframe (A340 vs A330).
And no modern company has ever made a twin jet equivalent to (no jet Cri-Cri, here) and cheaper than the SF50 and survived.


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 Post subject: Re: Cirrus SF50
PostPosted: 03 Jan 2019, 15:35 
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Username Protected wrote:
I don’t really want to play in this pool with Mike, but does anyone see that Mike’s points are mostly assumptions? Not fact based data?

You would say the same for all the information present in classes in business school.

You can call it an "assumption", but building twice as many smaller things does cost way less per unit, and that is borne out by industry every day.

Mike C.

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