20 Nov 2025, 02:02 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 12:58 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: Sure, why not. Now I have something else to watch instead of bitcoin  Ha. You and me both
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 13:47 |
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Joined: 05/29/09 Posts: 4166 Post Likes: +2990 Company: Craft Air Services, LLC Location: Hertford, NC
Aircraft: D50A
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I looked a little more into the auction info and something bad turned up from the perspective of buying this as a one off flying example. The issue is that the plane isn't registered under the amateur rules, but the much more limited marketing/research rules, and the operating limitations for this particular aircraft have expired. I would think that with this type of registration, anything more than a ferry permit may be very difficult to obtain.
There are still a few avenues for this plane to survive. First, if someone knows how to get it registered as an amateur built, they would be golden. I have no idea if this is possible, and if so, how difficult/expensive it would be. It might not be too bad for someone really connected at Epic.
Another more exciting route would be if the sale does indeed include intellectual property/engineering and an investor could be found. It looks like too much airplane with too much of the heavy work already done to just be discarded at this stage. It looks like a natural fit for the guys over at Cirrus.
I still think that it will bring more than the value of the engine.
_________________ Who is John Galt?
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 14:37 |
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Joined: 08/16/15 Posts: 2931 Post Likes: +5605 Location: Portland, OR
Aircraft: Prusinski'ing
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Username Protected wrote: I still think that it will bring more than the value of the engine.
Curious what your number is. Mine was selected after intricate math, equations, and finally I liked the look of it. I dunno jack about turbines, only how to lose a benjamin betting on them. 
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 15:43 |
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Joined: 05/29/09 Posts: 4166 Post Likes: +2990 Company: Craft Air Services, LLC Location: Hertford, NC
Aircraft: D50A
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Username Protected wrote: I still think that it will bring more than the value of the engine.
Curious what your number is. Mine was selected after intricate math, equations, and finally I liked the look of it. I dunno jack about turbines, only how to lose a benjamin betting on them. 
I might do better guessing at future Bitcoin value. Unlike Bitcoin, I do see some underlying value in the Kestrel.
The last I heard, an Epic LT kit was about $2.5M. If someone at Epic knows how to convert the airworthiness certificate into something useable, I could easily see one of those guys going half price at $1.25M. If the airworthiness is a huge hurdle, then the plane would probably go for much less, unless the tooling and intellectual property turns out to have value.
I'm sure there are lots of people in the immediate area that know all there is to know about the plane. Were there any serious issues when they parked it? Did the test pilots prang it? Is there any lingering liability from all of the lawsuits, or does someone who feels wronged have the logbooks? Who knows.
On the flip side, are the Russians still trying to certify the Epic 1000? Is there any engineering or production tooling that they need to help them along that might be included in this sale? Would they like to get their hands on it to find out how the Kestrel engineers solved any issues that they are now facing, or is there some intellectual property included that may keep them from future lawsuits?
I bet the Epic/Kestrel story would make a great soap opera if all of the ins and outs were really known, and I certainly don't claim to know much about it at all. I did happen in to a western NC airport where three of the Epics were located one time and they were impressive.
The other great unknown is the auction format. In the immortal words of Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock, "it takes two". If two don't show up, somebody is going to get a deal.
Now, to answer the question "whats my price". Thats tough. Jason said it will bring the value of the engine. I'm guessing that would be $550-$650K, but could be convinced otherwise if someone could produce any evidence. I used the old Price is Right trick and just added $1 to Jason's estimate by saying that he was too low.
_________________ Who is John Galt?
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 15:51 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: I still think that it will bring more than the value of the engine.
Curious what your number is. Mine was selected after intricate math, equations, and finally I liked the look of it. I dunno jack about turbines, only how to lose a benjamin betting on them.  Hell, I was ready to bet $100 it wouldn’t get to $300k just to get Craig to put his money where his mouth is but you beat him to the punch.
Regardless....... I still don’t think it’ll hit $300k.
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 16:50 |
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Joined: 01/18/11 Posts: 7664 Post Likes: +3697 Location: Lakeland , Ga
Aircraft: H35, T-41B, Aircoupe
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I think I will bid 100k for the prop and engine and put it on the lightning.
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 17:03 |
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Joined: 01/29/08 Posts: 26338 Post Likes: +13085 Location: Walterboro, SC. KRBW
Aircraft: PC12NG
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Username Protected wrote: Oh, I’ll bet you $100 that it goes over $300K. No problem there.  $300k? What happened to all your bold predictions? Why you backpedailing all of a sudden?. I'll give you action of the $750k. You should jump on it. A minute ago you felt this thing was worth well north of $1MM.
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 17:12 |
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Joined: 05/29/09 Posts: 4166 Post Likes: +2990 Company: Craft Air Services, LLC Location: Hertford, NC
Aircraft: D50A
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Username Protected wrote: I was ready to bet $100 it wouldn’t get to $300k just to get Craig to put his money where his mouth is
_________________ Who is John Galt?
Last edited on 25 Dec 2017, 17:43, edited 2 times in total.
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 17:28 |
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Joined: 05/29/09 Posts: 4166 Post Likes: +2990 Company: Craft Air Services, LLC Location: Hertford, NC
Aircraft: D50A
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Username Protected wrote: That ship sailed when I got a better offer. Go back further in the thread where you think it’s worth more than a Mustang cuz rich guys like you enjoy blowing money of silly airplanes nobody wants. When did I ever say it was worth more than a mustang? You've said that twice now and despite reading the thread three times, I can't figure out why you think I said that. 
Please login or Register for a free account via the link in the red bar above to download files.
_________________ Who is John Galt?
Last edited on 25 Dec 2017, 18:05, edited 2 times in total.
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Post subject: Re: Kestrel prototype for sale Posted: 25 Dec 2017, 17:42 |
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Joined: 05/29/09 Posts: 4166 Post Likes: +2990 Company: Craft Air Services, LLC Location: Hertford, NC
Aircraft: D50A
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Username Protected wrote: All your bravado and you won’t take the $750k? You are arguing against things that I've never said. What I did say, and what I believe to be true is that the auction will bring more than the value of the engine. I went on to add some "if-then" positions that anyone blessed with the ability to reason should be able to easily understand. If the sale includes intellectual property that holds value, then the sale price will be higher. If the airworthiness certificate issues are able to be addressed, the sale price will be higher. If the sale includes engineering or tooling that people find valuable, the sale price will be higher. If the aircraft or engine has unreported damage, the sale price will be lower. The one constant in my position is that the sale will exceed the value of the engine.
_________________ Who is John Galt?
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