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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 10:54 
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Username Protected wrote:
I can't think of a "flying career" ending scenario better than buying one of these old birds and then realizing that you can't afford the maintenance and operating cost and being stuck with an "investment" that you literally can't give away.

Are you referring only to geared supercharged twins, or the entire old, high dollar, piston twin fleet? I ask because I'm starting to look at Aerostars, and if that's the opinion of an AEST owner, well... time to reconsider.



Apologies for the thread drift (most of this really ought to be on the Aerostar string).

John G has a point, twins (including Aerostars) are selling at really cheap prices.

Owning one (whether it is a fixer-upper, or a fully tricked out low time turn key plane).

Is expensive.

The thing for a potential buyer to understand is:
Just because you can buy one for less than a 10 year old C172, doesn't mean the operating cost is going to be anywhere near equivalent to a 172.

Rough numbers a simple twin is going to cost twice as much to operate and maintain as a simple single. (Per mile)

A complex (turbos/pressurization, ice protection, etc) twin can easily cost more than ten times what that 172 costs to operate and maintain.

That's been my experience.

The upside of owning an older twin (1977 AEST) in terms of capability and speed and comfort (and low capital investment) is huge, I have no regrets, but I agree with John, anyone buying a twin because they seem cheap is headed down a road filled with disappointment.

If you want cheap(er), get the simplest aircraft (forget performance and range and nice options like a/c or retractable gear) that can carry the load you are determined to haul, for a couple hours with a 45-60 minute reserve.
Something like a 260HP Cherokee 6 (even better would be a 235 Cherokee w/FP prop, but that only hauls 4).
Stop for gas every couple hours, if the weather is bad, wait.
Spend the money you'll save on AVGAS and nice hotels along the way (your spouse will love that)
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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 11:09 
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Agreed with Forrest. Piston twins are generally pretty bad investments these days, but they do give great performance for those who want that.

685 is not a great choice, and me and Charles explain why in this thread:

http://www.beechtalk.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=99562&hilit=685

Your best option is to go turboprop. MU-2 or Commander, probably. They won't cost much more to operate than the old fire breathing pistons. Here's a 690A that's only $200K. Good times on engines, but needs two of the big SB's. That's probably the wing spar mod and the aft pressure bulkhead mod. The aft pressure bulkhead is a $60K fix. The wing spar is a $100K fix, or, you can inspect it every 3 years for about $15K. Still, worst case scenario you're in a 690A with halftime engines for $275-360K. Not a terrible deal, if you ask me.

http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/COMMANDER-690A/1973-COMMANDER-690A/1397359.htm

The piston options in the Commander line the 680F that was mentioned, the 560F also has 1500nm range and can land on a dime. The 500B's can also have aux fuel tanks installed taking their range up to 1500nm, but you might get a little challenged on useful load unless you have the 350hp Merlyn conversion.

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 11:58 
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Username Protected wrote:
Apologies for the thread drift (most of this really ought to be on the Aerostar string).

John G has a point, twins (including Aerostars) are selling at really cheap prices.

Owning one (whether it is a fixer-upper, or a fully tricked out low time turn key plane).

Is expensive.
That should be me apologizing. Thanks Forrest. :btt:


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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 12:13 
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There are some unpressurized long body 680s running around with io720 conversions. Try gary gadberry at air enter in chattanooga


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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 14:11 
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Location: KIWS Houston, VA, N03 NY
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Jim,
Here's a possibility:
It has range, and payload, nice avionics, interior, and paint, low-time engines.
It has flown a little over 300hrs since 2003.
http://www.controller.com/listingsdetai ... 343233.htm
I'd think the seller would be willing to make you a deal because P-Navajos are seen as less desirable due to their geared engines, for you, it might be perfect.


Very interesting! Do you happen to know the useful load and fuel burn/speed at cruise?

Jim

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 15:04 
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I see all the advice about turboprops but I'm not sure I see the point about them being less expensive to operate than a piston. It looks to me like the entry point for a turboprop is around $500k and that fuel burn realistically is going to be around 75-100 gph and of course there are the hot section inspections, etc.

I'm seeing commanders, panthers, etc. around $200-250K and expect fuel burn in the 40-50 range?

I have a C55 now that is dirt cheap to operate (23-26 gph), gives me the range, speed, and take-off distance I need but with the existing 1800lb useful load only leaves me about 950 lb for passengers/baggage when I take the necessary fuel. It's also a bit anemic in the mountains (NA). With a turbo and another 400 lb useful the Baron would be perfect. I didn't think it would take another $400k upfront and another 50-70 gph to get me to the level I need (1300 lb passengers/baggage + 800 nm fuel + one hour fuel reserve + FL 20s).

I was hoping one of the 500U, B, Shrike Commanders might have a gross wt increase STC (with tip tanks or long range tanks) that would give me the UL I need. The small piston commanders have the speed, short field, and FLs I need but fall short in UL.

Jim

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2015, 15:24 
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No, it's not going to be cheaper. But perhaps not that much more, making it an option. Hey, I totally understand - I'm budget restrained too and tend to buy at the bottom and improve as I go for money earned.

Per NM many of the Garrett powered turbines are already on par with most avgas twins, for sure. 55-65gal/hr to go 80-150kts faster (depending on model), on a fuel that's much cheaper, makes for less cost per NM compared to avgas many times. Also, easier to find a good deal on Jet A1 than on avgas.

Here's a recent trip I did in a friends old Commander 681. We were doing about 240kts here economy cruise. You can see the FF is 360pph in total, which is less than 54gal/hr. Averaging a $3.50/gal Jet A1 price, that works out to about $0.78/nm. Most Avgas twins would be on par with that, or perhaps even above it in price. These planes can be had for sub $300K, many times sub $200K with decent times left on engines.

In any case, you can't go wrong with a piston Commander either. If you need that kind of range, I'd look at a 680F or a 560F, or the 680E or 560E. The 560's will do 1500nm, the 680's a little bit less.


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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 12 Oct 2015, 09:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
Here's a recent trip I did in a friends old Commander 681. We were doing about 240kts here economy cruise.

Last night, FL270, 64 GPH (430 pph), 285 knots true, on $3.26 fuel.

$0.73/nm (still air, not counting tailwind) for fuel and doing close to 300 knots. 120 gallons burned, $391 fuel for this leg (had some tailwind, 15-20 knots).

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N305 ... /KICT/KEVV

Takeoff to FL270 20 minutes at 800 pounds under gross (full fuel, 400 pounds in cabin), temps ISA+5.

Airliners were getting light to moderate chop from FL300 to FL380, too heavy to go higher, unwilling to go lower (presumably due to fuel burn). Glass smooth at FL270 for me. Just depends on where the air is shearing against itself.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 12 Oct 2015, 09:51 
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Username Protected wrote:
I just can't imagine operating a pressurized piston twin off of less than 4000 feet on a regular basis. (safely)

Delete "piston", insert "turboprop".

Now, no problem on shorter runways, and WAY safer all around.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2015, 08:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
I can't think of a "flying career" ending scenario better than buying one of these old birds and then realizing that you can't afford the maintenance and operating cost and being stuck with an "investment" that you literally can't give away.

Are you referring only to geared supercharged twins, or the entire old, high dollar, piston twin fleet? I ask because I'm starting to look at Aerostars, and if that's the opinion of an AEST owner, well... time to reconsider.


Josh,

I apologize that I did not answer your question. I have been fighting a nasty bout of the flu. My statement applies to all twins, it is just a matter of degree. The supercharged/geared engines like the IGSO 540 are just the worst case scenario. I was really interested in buying a 680 Commander once and purchased the owners/operators manual for the engine, which you can find on line quite easily. Their fuel specifics are abominable. Comparing one of them to the cost of a turboprop with a utilization of over a hundred hours per year and the turboprop wins hands down.

On the other hand, no piston twin is a good "investment". As my wife told me when I bought the Aerostar, she was referring to all twins, "be sure you want it because you won't be able to sell it." Not including reserve for props/engines or avionic upgrades, paint, etc., and not counting depreciation or insurance or hangar, a twin like the Baron 58P or the Aerostar or any of the 400 Cessnas is going to cost you $300 to $400/hour operating cost.

Jgreen
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Last edited on 13 Oct 2015, 22:33, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2015, 08:21 
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There is a lot of give and take here about the comparative operating cost between a piston twin and a turboprop like the MU-2 and Turbine Commanders.

If you want a quick analysis of what the comparative costs are it's simple: ask the commercial operators who have them.

Find out the hourly rental on a 58 Baron, not too hard to do, and then call a training operation that has a turboprop. I made a "I wonder" call to a company that specializes in MU-2 training. The hourly rate for a MU-2 dry is $750. Add a couple of hundred for fuel per hour and you are right at $1000 per hour.

Several years ago, I had access to Conklin & Dedecker's cost program. All basic turboprops came in at about $1200/hour wet. That was with double the fuel prices of today.

Jgreen

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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2015, 08:41 
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Thanks John, I appreciate the reply. Is it worth it? I'm still mulling that question over.

Hope you feel better!


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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2015, 08:53 
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Username Protected wrote:
Is it worth it?


I posted awhile back about my alternate counting system for money. It is

1) not enough
2) enough
3) more than enough

If you can operate a twin and stay in box 3, then it's worth it. If the twin pushes you into box 2, probably not.


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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2015, 22:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
Is it worth it?


I posted awhile back about my alternate counting system for money. It is

1) not enough
2) enough
3) more than enough

If you can operate a twin and stay in box 3, then it's worth it. If the twin pushes you into box 2, probably not.


AND THAT GENTLEMEN IS THE TRUTH! As my wife says, the expense of an airplane should be a non-issue. That's why she LOVES a Skylane. :lol:

Jgreen
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 Post subject: Re: Does this plane exist? or Another plane search thread.
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2015, 17:55 
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