Todd,

I want to short sell Twin Cessna future's. Where's next year's bottom?

Hello again,

Martti, to answer your question. I have recently seen several 421's here on BT put up for sale with asking prices in the upper mid 100 amu's. Looking on other sale sights, there are also many 421's south of 200 amu's. And there are quite a few for sale. Many of them have been for sale for the entire year or more.

Rocky R. of BT also has his Duke that has been undergoing major refurbishment. I believe he will have that on the market soon for something over 100 amu's.

Duke prices are now at pretty much scrap prices.

It appears to me that 421's are much closer in price to Dukes now than just a couple of years ago. In light of this, I believe that 421 prices are now aggressively coming down. I am interested in some comparative opinions now that prices may be much closer to eachother than before.





Hello Todd. As someone famous once said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". That having been said, I believe you are spot on.

Too many older pilots selling older aircraft, and not nearly enough younger pilots with spare money to buy. Corporate flight departments are now moving on to turbine aircraft. This leaves aircraft like the Dukes and Cessna 421s out in the cold.

The sun is just rising if you are a buyer.

The sun is setting on the sellers of these fine aircraft.

900 fpm through FL220 with 140 gallons and 4 adults. Highest CHT 336dF.

[youtube]http://youtu.be/iiQ1cnV5hic[/youtube]

Poorly maintained 421's and Dukes are very low in value for a good reason. 421 prices are right behind the Dukes. Good well maintained 421C's will go down in value, but at a slower pace.
It doesn't matter what you buy or own "ALL" Piston GA planes will take a significant drop in value as older pilots lose their medicals. The days of buying a GA plane that holds it value are over.

The fact that there is an active 421 thread here on BT validates the popularity of the C-421. It's not cheap to own one of these, but they are awesome airplanes. The lower time , well equipped C models will remain in high demand. The 'cheap' ones Don referred to may be 'cheap' to acquire, but you get what you pay for, and you better have a rainy day fund in the bank.

900 fpm through FL220 with 140 gallons and 4 adults. Highest CHT 336dF.

[youtube]http://youtu.be/iiQ1cnV5hic[/youtube]

I have a friend that use to fly the Golden Eagle years ago, he called it the Brass Buzzard. I don't remember why, just thought it was funny.

Gerald is spot on. The older generation is slowly cashing in the chips and the homes for their planes are becoming fewer as most new pilots with money buy a new Cirrus and then go right into a turbine. Charter operations need reliable aircraft with strong support to ensure dispatch reliability and happy customers. They are not using piston twins as much, especially when turbines are actually becoming more cost effective.

The 421Cs still command a good premium because they were about as good as the plane could be made. This will not last long. The planes are getting too long in the tooth for the complexity they have.

900 FPM at 185KTAS in the low 20s with 1,500lb payload is very good for any piston.

You should qualify your statement that "good" to you apparently requires jet fuel. Fair opinion, but irrelevant to someone considering a 421.

I'm saving my pennies to make the next jump over a 421, because its a huge jump. I have owned and flown a 58P and 421C a combined total of about 800 hours in the last few years (just a baseline for my opinion).

Best,

I'm confused, I read this post from front to back, I thought it was about Tesla vs. Prius vs. Corvette vs. Hyundai.

I've had my 421B for about 15 years. What other plane can you fly at FL230 and easly put dirt bikes in for Mexico or take out the seats in the back and have a flat floor for futons and the back passangers can sleep on beds for those 5 hour trips, while burning 30-36 gph? And get them now for under 200,000. It's bargain time. If your sitting on the fence waiting another two years your not going to buy anyway. What will you save 25,000, that's less than airfare business class to Europe for a family and you will be missing out flying for the next two years in a great plane.

Rocky

Cabin class twins generally are not long for this world, but I don't see the recent BT postings as particularly indicative. B models have long been mostly 100-ish airplaines. A steam panel C model with one engine near TBO is a good deal under 200 but nothing crazy. $225-250 has bought a solid straight leg C model with mid time engines for a long time.

The 400 series cessnas are going to have a niche for as long as anything in the class. Room/payload for 6 seats with tons of luggage and a potty can't be had in anything else piston driven and a similar size PT6 airframe costs 2X as much to operate. The Garret turbines can come close to matching the operating costs of a 421 but there are not enough airframes to go around.

(nb: my 421 is a leased, so I'm not personally invested in the sales prices!)

Tesla rocks!!!

Jesse, Rocky and Charles......tell 'em how it is with the 421's!!!

Putting this into perspective a bit

To operate a $200K 421 for 10 years/1000 hours

40,000 gal fuel = $250K
Insurance 2% hull/year = $40K
Hangar $500/month = $60K
Annual inspections = $50K
One overhaul = $70K
30 oil changes = $15K

That gets you up to a half million ... without a single thing breaking.

The differences in purchase price are pretty minimal in the overall scheme of things. The prices are pretty well near scrap value now, I doubt thet fall much farther. A 421 that is financially out of reach at $200K does not become affordable at $100K.

Hello again Martti,



Yes, but as prices continue to come down as I believe they will, you could almost buy one and get one for parts. All for less than the price of one just a few years ago.

This will have a depressing effect on the higher priced Dukes and 421s.

Making my way up the ladder as a young aviator, I dreamed of these nice cabin class twins.

I have a little time in the 421. It was long ago. But I remember it was sweet.

I just didn't imagine that I would be able to possibly own one for less than a years wages.

The future will be very enteresting for us indeed.