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22 Oct 2017, 02:31 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


DShannon Aviation (banner)



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 Post subject: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 11:22 
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http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Airlin ... 03583.html


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 11:54 
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Username Protected wrote:
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Airlines-Scrambling-to-Prevent-Pilot-Shortage-414903583.html


"News" panic of the day...

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 12:18 
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As soon as starting salaries double again this may make a good career change around 50 :D

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 12:20 
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From a management and BOD view - in most industries, a shortage of poverty-level tradesmen does not result in higher paid tradesmen. It results in increased use of automation.


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 12:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
From a management and BOD view - in most industries, a shortage of poverty-level tradesmen does not result in higher paid tradesmen. It results in increased use of automation.

To wit:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-2 ... abor-costs

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 12:59 
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An aquantaince of mine involved in managing airlines for a long time has told me that pilots are the number one problem in running an airline. No idea how wide spread that sentiment is in the industry. I agree with Jeff, while in the short term there may be a wage change to fix this, somewhere in the back rooms there are people very busy working on aircraft requiring less pilots.


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 15:03 
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Well it was bound to happen sometime. At least this has driven up the pay for the regionals. I sure hope it doesn't just lead to more automation though. Wish it could have been this good when I was graduating college a few years back.


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 15:10 
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When you don't have to attend at least one of the following to get an interview:

National Gay Pilots Association Conference
Women in Aviation Conference
Organization of Black Airline Professionals

Then I will believe there is a hiring crisis.

I have applications in with all major airlines, most LCCs (Southwest, JetBlue) and the major cargo outfits (FedEx, UPS).

I have been called for exactly ONE interview in four years.

Ex military, either 3000 or 6000 hours depending if they count helicopter time, which only JetBlue and Hawaiian do.

ATP, CFI/II, multiple type ratings, over all reasonable hours thresholds for PIC, Turbine, Etc.

When the Regionals and contract freight companies start to pay a salary that won't cause me to go literally bankrupt with a normal lower middle class lifestyle (single family home, one car with a payment and student loans) then they may become an option.

But for now, considering you have to have beaucoup hours, go to some conference that doesn't apply to you, AND have multiple internal LORs just to get an interview, I do not believe there is a shortage.

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 15:14 
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Username Protected wrote:
An aquantaince of mine involved in managing airlines for a long time has told me that pilots are the number one problem in running an airline.
I have a feeling that a great many businesses find employees to be their number one problem...


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 17:00 
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I am not a commercial vocational pilot, but I was at one time a wanna be commercial vocational pilot. That said you can take this for what its worth, they are just my observations and opinions.
I think there is a real shortage. A good friend of mine just got on with a regional... I forget what his bonus and insensitives were exactly but they were great. He was getting calls and had interviews before he had the required hours. He had a training spot waiting for him the day he reached his 1500 hours. Starting pay is better then a few years ago but he is not killing it by any means. He has always wanted to be a pilot and is willing to pay his dues so to speak with the lower pay for a few years. Even still... just 6 months in to the new job the new is gone (and that bonus money too) and he has doubts about his decision some days.
The problem as I see it is that to become a pilot you have to spend a small fortune on training, testing, and time building. Then the training, and testing, and never ending government headaches with the FAA continue forever. Lose your medical, need a certain kind of medication, or make some kind of mistake and you are out. On top of that once you get a job in the industry the hours are long, you are away from home a lot, it is a high pressure job some days, and for all of that you make less then a starting teacher for the first few years at least.
Airlines are in a fix because everyone wants to fly cheaper and cheaper. So they are always trying to squeeze on things to make their margins but keep the customer coming back. Just today I booked a round trip ticket from San Antonio TX to West Palm beach FL for $223. That is crazy cheap! I can't drive it for $111 each way. I think in the near future fares will have to go up mainly because the enormous back log of young pilots waiting for a position is gone and a real shortage is on the way. Pay and benefits will have to continue to increase if airlines want to continue to attract quality pilots. I don't think automation is a big factor right now for airline pilots. I think we are many years away from seeing passenger jets flying single pilot, or no pilot. Airlines will be using more and more automation for things like scheduling, flight planing, customer service, gate attendants etc. But the multiple people in the cockpit thing is probably here for a good while in my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 18:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
An aquantaince of mine involved in managing airlines for a long time has told me that pilots are the number one problem in running an airline.

His name's not Lorenzo, is it?

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 18:05 
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Username Protected wrote:
An aquantaince of mine involved in managing airlines for a long time has told me that pilots are the number one problem in running an airline. No idea how wide spread that sentiment is in the industry. I agree with Jeff, while in the short term there may be a wage change to fix this, somewhere in the back rooms there are people very busy working on aircraft requiring less pilots.


All you have to do is watch Sully to see why that is a long long way off.

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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 18:52 
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All you have to do is watch Sully to see why that is a long long way off.
why ? how do you propose that sully would have turned out differently had the copilot role been performed buy some sort of automation or remote support ? While you can always search and find cases where people saved the day, you can just as easily find cases where stupid pilot tricks killed people. Automation doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than the people it displaces.


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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 19:07 
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All you have to do is watch Sully to see why that is a long long way off.
why ? how do you propose that sully would have turned out differently had the copilot role been performed buy some sort of automation or remote support ? While you can always search and find cases where people saved the day, you can just as easily find cases where stupid pilot tricks killed people. Automation doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than the people it displaces.


Sully didn't do it on his own, Jeff Skiles didn't just sit there. I really don't want to trust a computer program to keep me safe. I think we have see many examples where pilots flying a FBW jet lack the skills to hand fly who flight envelope protection is not available. Accidents have shown where automation HMI interaction make the day worse.
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 Post subject: Re: Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2017, 19:18 
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Next generation of airliners will have single pilot in cockpit with satelllite drone data link to central dispatch for monitoring and to take control in case of pilot incapacitation.

Not a question of if, just when?

Combine that with remote controlled ATC Control Towers. And maybe someday co-locate airline dispatch centers with ATC Centers and you have a new generation of cooperative Airlines & ATC.

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