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27 Apr 2024, 01:57 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 15 Feb 2024, 20:54 
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I think it is interesting that they say the liquidation value of the inventory is $2.5M vs a book value of $21M. Either the inventory on the shelves is "good" inventory and is worth something like $21M, or it is primarily defective items and has little/no value. If it is junk, they shouldn't have it on the books at $21M, and if it isn't junk, it is worth substantially more than $2.5M.


Can it be that some parts are more or less worthless if you can't complete the kit? E.g. how many wing spars can they sell if they can not complete entire wing kit? I'd expect the $2.5M is for parts that can be sold as 'consumables' (skins, canopies, wheels, landing gear, etc...) and the remaining $18.5M that can only be sold in reasonable time as part of the kit to which they would need to produce additional parts to complete.


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 15 Feb 2024, 21:19 
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Username Protected wrote:

Can it be that some parts are more or less worthless if you can't complete the kit? E.g. how many wing spars can they sell if they can not complete entire wing kit? I'd expect the $2.5M is for parts that can be sold as 'consumables' (skins, canopies, wheels, landing gear, etc...) and the remaining $18.5M that can only be sold in reasonable time as part of the kit to which they would need to produce additional parts to complete.


I imagine (we're all guessing here, right?) that anyone who bought that inventory would have the ability to build or source whatever parts were missing to complete (say) a wing kit. Let's say Van's inventory includes everything in the wing kit except the ribs. Manufacturing ribs wouldn't be a big challenge for someone with the financial wherewithal to buy the existing inventory.


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 15 Feb 2024, 21:24 
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Username Protected wrote:

Can it be that some parts are more or less worthless if you can't complete the kit? E.g. how many wing spars can they sell if they can not complete entire wing kit? I'd expect the $2.5M is for parts that can be sold as 'consumables' (skins, canopies, wheels, landing gear, etc...) and the remaining $18.5M that can only be sold in reasonable time as part of the kit to which they would need to produce additional parts to complete.


I imagine (we're all guessing here, right?) that anyone who bought that inventory would have the ability to build or source whatever parts were missing to complete (say) a wing kit. Let's say Van's inventory includes everything in the wing kit except the ribs. Manufacturing ribs wouldn't be a big challenge for someone with the financial wherewithal to buy the existing inventory.

I thought the inventory they were writing off was defective.
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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 15 Feb 2024, 21:29 
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Username Protected wrote:
I thought the inventory they were writing off was defective.


Right. So the question is whether they have $21M of good inventory on the shelves or they have $2.5M of junk inventory. If the inventory is junk, they should have written it down to whatever they estimate it is worth.

My belief is they have a ton of good inventory, but need to match that with another half-ton of different inventory to allow them to ship full kits. I.E. They have everything to ship 100 RV-7 fuselage kits except they need to manufacture 100 bulkhead sets because the bulkheads (hypothetically) were LCP. Being able to ship their existing inventory is what will allow them to turn that inventory into cash.


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 15 Feb 2024, 21:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
I thought the inventory they were writing off was defective.


Right. So the question is whether they have $21M of good inventory on the shelves or they have $2.5M of junk inventory. If the inventory is junk, they should have written it down to whatever they estimate it is worth.

My belief is they have a ton of good inventory, but need to match that with another half-ton of different inventory to allow them to ship full kits. I.E. They have everything to ship 100 RV-7 fuselage kits except they need to manufacture 100 bulkhead sets because the bulkheads (hypothetically) were LCP. Being able to ship their existing inventory is what will allow them to turn that inventory into cash.

My take is that $2.5M of the $21M inventory is usable and the rest is junk.
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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 03:52 
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Username Protected wrote:
I imagine (we're all guessing here, right?) that anyone who bought that inventory would have the ability to build or source whatever parts were missing to complete (say) a wing kit. Let's say Van's inventory includes everything in the wing kit except the ribs. Manufacturing ribs wouldn't be a big challenge for someone with the financial wherewithal to buy the existing inventory.

I thought the inventory they were writing off was defective.

Vans wrote off nearly $4 million in defective inventory in 2023. I think that it was all Laser Cut Parts in inventory which they could not sell. It hit their Income Statement as a $4 million "paper" loss. They already spent the cash making the products that had to be scrapped.

They also reserved a $5 million expense to fix/resolve the Laser Cut Part problem related to parts already shipped. They have to be replaced. Many are already installed so it is a bigger problem than the inventory write-off. It remains to be seen if $5 million will be adequate or conservative. The expense hit their Income Statement as a $5 million "paper" loss. This will eventually be a cash loss as they come to terms with affected Builders and start spending money on fixing each individual problem.

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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 04:26 
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Username Protected wrote:
Right. So the question is whether they have $21M of good inventory on the shelves or they have $2.5M of junk inventory. If the inventory is junk, they should have written it down to whatever they estimate it is worth.

My belief is they have a ton of good inventory, but need to match that with another half-ton of different inventory to allow them to ship full kits. I.E. They have everything to ship 100 RV-7 fuselage kits except they need to manufacture 100 bulkhead sets because the bulkheads (hypothetically) were LCP. Being able to ship their existing inventory is what will allow them to turn that inventory into cash.

My take is that $2.5M of the $21M inventory is usable and the rest is junk.

I think it means that the $21 million inventory is good inventory if Vans remains a going concern and can continue to sell that inventory to Builders. But if they shut down the company (i.e. Chapter 7) that inventory is worth $2.5 million to salvage/scrap dealers in liquidation.

I suspect that the footnote of only $2.5 million inventory liquidation value was a subtle warning to Builders that if they choose to fight and make claims resulting in Chapter 7/Liquidation of Vans rather than obediently getting in line and agreeing to pay 30-50% more, that there is essentially little to no value left to settle claims. Vans has about $2.6 million in near term Accounts Payable that will gobble up the cash they have now in the bank. Payroll liabilities and State taxes payable will suck up most of the $2.5 million "Inventory Liquidation". The Van Gruesven Family will likely grab the rest.

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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 09:58 
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Username Protected wrote:

I imagine (we're all guessing here, right?) that anyone who bought that inventory would have the ability to build or source whatever parts were missing to complete (say) a wing kit. Let's say Van's inventory includes everything in the wing kit except the ribs. Manufacturing ribs wouldn't be a big challenge for someone with the financial wherewithal to buy the existing inventory.


Since VAN's doesn't publish plans how would you know that you built them correctly?


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 13:23 
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Username Protected wrote:

I imagine (we're all guessing here, right?) that anyone who bought that inventory would have the ability to build or source whatever parts were missing to complete (say) a wing kit. Let's say Van's inventory includes everything in the wing kit except the ribs. Manufacturing ribs wouldn't be a big challenge for someone with the financial wherewithal to buy the existing inventory.


Since VAN's doesn't publish plans how would you know that you built them correctly?


Reverse engineering something like a rib, or really any of the parts in an RV would be fairly straightforward. Cutting, punching, and bending aluminum and steel is known science.

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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 13:35 
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Username Protected wrote:

Since VAN's doesn't publish plans how would you know that you built them correctly?



Does Van's no longer publish plans? I definitely have a set on paper circa 2000 for my RV-8, and also have an electronic copy on a CD

IIRC you could buy a paper plans set or the CD with or without a kit.


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 13:50 
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Username Protected wrote:

Since VAN's doesn't publish plans how would you know that you built them correctly?



Does Van's no longer publish plans? I definitely have a set on paper circa 2000 for my RV-8, and also have an electronic copy on a CD

IIRC you could buy a paper plans set or the CD with or without a kit.

I don't know but are those plans actually manufacturing plans or assembly instructions?
Are you able to manufacture every part from scratch for the kit based on those plans?

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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 13:52 
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Username Protected wrote:

Reverse engineering something like a rib, or really any of the parts in an RV would be fairly straightforward. Cutting, punching, and bending aluminum and steel is known science.

Of course it can be done. It's the question of 'would you' and if the parts in stock are sellable. Not everybody can do it, majority of current builders probably can't, making the incomplete kits useless to VANs


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 14:38 
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Attachment:
IMG_9969.jpeg

I don't know but are those plans actually manufacturing plans or assembly instructions?
Are you able to manufacture every part from scratch for the kit based on those plans?[/quote]
Here's a representative sample from the set in my desk drawer here--I've actually manufactured a couple of small parts (because I lost the originals) from the plans, but I certainly didn't try making an entire airplane from them.

I do have friends that I believe could do it without much problem, just that is is -far- quicker to buy a set of pre-punched parts. It is often quicker to remake a part if you ruin it than to wait on an order. Ask me how I know ;P


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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 16:55 
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Username Protected wrote:
Attachment:
IMG_9969.jpeg


The graphic posted are detail component manufacturing plans. You could easily reverse engineer a physical component, but as this graphic shows, there's no real control on the dimensioning. so each part would need to be hand fit to ensure appropriate assembly.

I'm sure that Van's has their tooling and such set up to repeatably produce identical parts, even if their drawings don't reflect it.

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 Post subject: Re: Vans RV aircraft temporarily suspending operations
PostPosted: 16 Feb 2024, 17:00 
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Up through the RV-6, the plans included everything you would need to scratch build the entire airplane. Post RV-6, what you get are assembly instructions which call out anything you need to do to the supplied (mostly pre-punched) parts.


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