I suspect many of you have noticed it, but the Cirrus for sale market seems to be increasing. They are discussing this over on POA ,and some folks are saying a quantity of around 250 aircraft for sale seems about right. Moreover, it appears on an upward trajectory. I'm not so sure, I think the market is softening significantly. I think if you see a softening market for planes you'll see it first in the Cirrus money - smart people there but I do no think they are the smartest aviation financial people - lots of newbies.

What I would like to understand is - who is buying a million dollar plus used Cirrus? Granted not all of the inventory is at that price point, but I would say a good 30 to 40 are. Now perhaps I can understand a small business working deprecation, etc. but still - you've got to have profits to offset with the depreciation - is it realistic to expect that going forward these firms are going to have the profitability to justify it? Moreover, how about private individuals - I'm sure some of these are cash sales, but if you've got that kind of money it would seem to me you are in the league where I'm thinking turbine equipment. Lastly, are folks financing these things - I just can't imagine buying a million dollar airplane on credit - that thing could easily loose half it's value, and then what do you do with that big a_s note?

Signed - Perplexed and Confused! and I guess envious of how the other half live- even though I guess I'm kind of part of that other half!

That is about 3% of hulls. Still a sellers market would seem.

My partners in our SR22 have been watching the market for an eventual upgrade to a G5. They were explaining to me that there are far more planes on the market with fewer sales. Many have been on the market for weeks now.

They also reported our 2006 G2 has likely dropped 10%.

Been observing casually (no serious data analysis), mainly what I am seeing are mostly 0-5 yr old models, those that have the biggest monthly nut. Just got a market update from Aerista, generally the market is still a seller’s market.

Many in that league, as I’m sure is similar in the SETP or even lower end jet market, finance their purchases, not because they don’t have the cash, but because paying 6-8% is less than the 15-25% they’re earning on the cash they have invested.

Either way, the Cirrus market appears to still be healthy. I bought my 2006 in early 2020, and based on what I’m seeing could easily make a profit over what I paid 3 yrs ago. But I’m not selling any time soon.

Steel Aviation is a Cirrus (re)sales and fix-up big player: https://aircraft.steelaviation.com/airc ... ry-new.cfm

We bought a new SR22 G2 in 2006 for $330,000. The used G2’s on the Steel web site list for more than that now.

From my small town red neck perspective the Cirrus market, in fact the airplane market has been driven by the following.

1. Government "loans" during covid. That money is still having its effect.
2. Long term financing and low interest rates. Interest on loans is still cheap relative to what I have seen in my business career. Credit requirements have been lax compared to historic trends.
3. Partnerships and lease backs. John Jr. just finished a Cirrus transition course and all ten of the school's airplanes were near new and leasebacks.
4. People and businesses are making money "hand over fist" everywhere I look. I have made several large land sales lately and, in every case, the buyer simply wrote me a check for hundreds of thousands of dollars: no closing, no loan.

Many people of my age, that I have known for decades, are not retiring because they are making money they never dreamed of. I was in my lawyer's office yesterday picking up a deed for the sale of a parcel of land. There was a stack of real estate documents on his secretary's desk waiting for pick up that was six inches high. His secretary lamented that it was what she had produced this week. There must have been fifteen or twenty thousand dollars of billing there produced by one 78 year old lawyer.

The sky might be falling somewhere but not here.

That's the case everywhere I look. I'm beginning to feel like an economic failure.

Jg

US recession will hit 'everywhere all at once,' economist warns

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=grDjUQzNEms

I tend to agree with JGB here. There’s a lot of people still making crazy money compared to decades ago. But I also see the 300-1mil plane market softening a bit. There’s a couple SR22s I’ve had my eye in that I know had significant work done in the last few years and they are sitting for sale where 3 years ago, they would have moved quickly. Because of Cirrus marketing, I believe these planes appealed to the pilots who sought to fly private, did so, but are returning to the “normal” and some may have been surprised by the opex of plane ownership. Maybe not, but maybe so.

I talked to a Cirrus rep at Sun and Fun yesterday. He was trying to trade me out of our 2006 for a new plane. Currently a fully loaded SR22 costs 1.1 million. If I ordered today it should be here early 2025.

Expect a G7 by then. And no, your order price is not protected.

We chatted about SF50 Vision jets. 300 are flying, they have 400 orders and will produce about 100 this year.

To add to my comment two weeks ago about the money being made in this country today, I'll relate a meeting I attended yesterday.

Twelve people were invited to meet the Democratic governor's candidate for our state election held this year. This was not an "elite" group by any means, just friends of the fellow that invited us to his office who knew the candidate.

There were three couples so we are down to nine families.

Four of those in the room make over $500,000 a year without a college degree among them. Two of those make over a million a year. One of those is black by the way.

Another couple just sold their "mom and pop" business for 7+ million in addition to what they have accumulated over the years. No college degree there either.

This group only scratches the surface.

This in a 25,000 population town with a median family income of $40,000.

In this country, the limitation of Cirrus buyers has little to do with income.

Jg

FIFY

friends with board members on two different regional bank boards, they said more cash in the banks know than they have ever seen

It's pretty simple. When you are tired of turbine expenses and bored of high altitude flying and you want to enjoy the journey with a minimum of hassles and a ton of support.... you buy a new Cirrus. Why would anyone pay 750,000 for a car that only seats two people and will triple the highway speed limit ? Yet Ferrari and Lamborghini are sold out years in advance. Cirrus has some of the best resale around... most owners report losing only 7% after 3 years of use on a new Cirrus (because they keep going up I'm sure). Combine this with Cirrus offering free maintenance (all maintenance) for 4 years and nice yearly upgrades (the new interiors are beautiful) and you get a product that outsells everything else two to one.

In the five months since the beginning of this thread, I've had many contacts with the economic arena of this country from different perspectives. It defies my imagination. The money available for spending from the top of the pyramid to the bottom is beyond anything I have ever witnessed in my 50 years in business.

Businesses are making money "hand over fist". Wages have skyrocketed. If the owner flown general aviation airplane had half the utility touted by the aficionados here on BT, Cirrus would be selling multiples of their current production.

The numbers of people who can afford a new million dollar airplane is not the limitation.

Jg

I received an Email yesterday that Vref will have updated valuations on 9-1 because the market is changing so fast.They also did this on 7-5 which I understand was a reaction to some of the heavy iron moving down in price so fast.There are lots of factors that can affect the market,interest rates are a real big factor and If Wheels Up or someone else fails the market will be impacted in a negative way.It will be interesting to see if Cirrus values decline in the updated Vref valuations.