As a Buyer's Agent I would like to say that aircraft values in that particular market will suffer and that owners should sell now. However, that would be dishonest.

There is at least one, very inexperienced broker who is contacting owners saying just that, I'm sure he's a nice guy who probably doesn't realize what he is doing is actually unethical and possibly libel / slander, since he's specifically mentioning one particular company.

Unlike our broker friend above, I do have a lot of experience in marketing repossessed airplanes, and one of my associates has personally repossessed more aircraft than any other repo man I am aware of, including the guys on TV.

The reality is if that certain company does go bankrupt, it's going to be a long time before those airplanes start trickling onto the market, and they won't just be thrown up on Controller at bargain-basement prices. Depending on how the lender takes the aircraft back, it may be six to twelve months for them to be able to sell, and that's after they have physical possession. There's a process that they go through and it isn't always quick, especially if you have any legal pushback, which is likely in this case. Once the do sell them, it is unlikely they will sell to retail purchasers, the airplanes will be out of inspection and need paint and interior, most lenders aren't set up to manage that and they would rather sell to aircraft dealers "as-is" and let them spend the money catching up the maintenance, doing cosmetics and that adds another six months. (plus profit)

So, it is unlikely that these airplanes will be "blown out" and crater any market, among other factors, that wouldn't benefit the banks who are trying to get whole on them.

I'm sure there's some other folks on here, lenders and repo folks who can add to what I'm saying, as always I look forward to learning more!

If unsaid company does go Tango Uniform, and their aircraft inventory suddenly needs new homes, I'm sure the lenders/lien holders will proceed much like in 2008. Releasing a few aircraft here and there, instead of all at once, in an effort to keep values up.

I guess we will have to see, and I'm a bit abashed someone is jumping the gun.

When a company goes belly up, the good assets don't end up at a fairgrounds auction on a weekend. That's where the coffee pots, office chairs and whiteboards go.

The fate of the good stuff is decided much much earlier in the process, and generally behind closed doors. The banks aren't stupid, and they know a one-time dump onto the market isn't the best way to maximize the value of their assets.

Shower thought - for this unsaid company "belly up" isn't Tango Uniform, it's Whiskey Uniform.

Here's my version of the creditors looking at the carcass:

I am not a broker or buyer’s representative and don’t buy or sell planes any more (may buy an LSA or pick up what’s left of a good card contract) *but* I will say that Honda is really showing strong support for the JetIT aircraft owners.

Rumor is that the JetIt CEO asked them for help and Honda not only stepped up but are offering to ferry and hangar aircraft up to 90 days and may be assisting them (likely paid) with maintenance and sales. Honda is doing something amazing, IMHO.

https://www.flyingmag.com/honda-aircraf ... customers/

While I have no written opinion on Whiskey Uniform but I did mention AvantAir, WU, and JetIt in the same paragraph somewhere. If other 91K and Fractionals run into the same fate as our economy IF it goes greasy side up, hopefully the manufacturers and even jet fuel sales places can help owners.

It will be interesting to see what comes of the upcoming F&F litigation exploration.

Do you wonder if this is 2007-2009 all over again?

Honestly, no. Not even close. And I'm a pessimist.

Please make sure to bookmark this to remind me when the Titanic slips under the waves!

Nowhere close yet. Don't see any signs of it happening either.

By many measures the economy is pretty good. Inflation is a notable issue, but there are worse problems economies can have.

Yep, a stocking aircraft dealer we both know forwarded me the email. First of all if the guy doesn’t know this company is a stocking aircraft dealer and to not send him an email trying to get a listing, that’s a problem in itself. Shocked he mentions WU specifically;

“The reason for me reaching out is because I wasn't sure if you heard the news about WheelsUp facing bankruptcy. It would seem if they need to liquidate that fleet it will drive down King Air Aircraft prices across the entire model-line especially the 350 series.“

His subject line was a straight up scare tactic WheelsUp Bad News for King Airs and NXXXX

Desperate and unprofessional.

Thanks Jon, Matt, and Jim.

The more I watch this industry, the more my opinion that brokers thrive on the ignorant buyers/sellers seems true

This is just more of the same, and it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to realize that anyone calling or marketing to me about why my house is going to go down in value due to a black swan event, is pandering

Anyone who calls or emails me about my KA's impending drop in value, will be ignored like the rest of them

I got cold-called on an oil field investment last year. I went pretty far down the rabbit hole and reviewed as much as I could on it. Half the reason was that I simply wanted to learn more about the industry. I've seen more than a few business proposals, and this one looked both good and reasonable. I finally turned it down for one basic reason:

He called me.

If the deal is that good and you're honest in business, you should have a line of people at your door. If it's that good, you don't need to buy a mailing list and start cold calling.

Hey Brian, if a rocket surgeon calls you about your KA, I'd think you'd pick up, just to ask what a rocket surgeon is.

This. The second I see someone cold calling to sell something, I know it’s a bad deal. That includes hawking stuff on late night TV.

The people who are juiced in get all the super good deals. By the time it trickles down to the common folk, it’s either picked over trash, or has already been flipped 2-3 times.

Rocket surgeons went to the school across the street from the brain scientists.