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 Post subject: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 12:35 
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When it comes to the 525 line, I'd have a hard time picking a favorite, but if you forced me to choose, it would definitely be the CJ2+!

The CJ3/3+ is by far the best selling 525 series, and I get that Textron doesn't see the point in bringing back the 2+ as an M3, after all why wouldn't people just buy the CJ3+?

This is a line of production minded thought that ignores the very real problems of market saturation and not maximizing the number of new transactions, better said the number of new airplane purchases a single buyer might complete. The step from the M2 to a CJ3+ is a huge one and one that many buyers just don't make, it's a jump that gets people to looking at Phenom 300's instead. Textron is missing out on move up sales.

The way that you maximize sales per customer is to provide an appropriate number of step ups. Cirrus has done a great job with this, so has Socata with the TBM. Textron... not so much, we've had the M2, CJ3 and CJ4 with very little excitement. Sure, they came out with the CJ3+ and "Gen 2" the M2 and CJ4... but meh. I'm sure they will come out with a CJ4+ at some point, but that still leaves a hole in the lineup.

The logic is why build four models when you can get by with three... the answer is that used CJ2+'s are selling for almost as much as NEW M2's! You have to keep the M2, it's now your entry level new jet, and I get the fact that the CJ3 does all that the 2+ does and then some, BUT it just isn't a CJ2+ and people do care. That is why the market is so hot for the 2+! If you look at what is best from a production standpoint instead of what is best from a sales standpoint, it will eventually catch up to you.

We just did a prepurchase input on a CJ2+ yesterday and as I climbed all over the airplane inside and out, I remembered again why it's so perfect. If the CJ3 is a Suburban, the CJ2+ is the Tahoe, it just looks sexy, it's the perfect size with perfect proportions.

I know it's just a dream and it probably won't happen, but I sure would like to see Textron produce an M3, I can't think of a cooler airplane than a CJ2+ with a tad more power, a Garmin G3000 and winglets (real winglets not blinglets)

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 12:54 
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Chip, what’s the cost delta between the M2 to CJ3+ and a new Phenom 100 to 300? That would be an interesting comparison…

Not to rain on the parade, but I think your CJ2+ with a tad more power and a G3000 is called a CJ3+ ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 12:57 
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We would probably be in a Mustang if they still made them, and upgraded it in line with Cirrus/Piper and Socata. Autoland, GWX8000 radar, G3000, full envelope protection, are just the norm now for high end owner pilots. The Mustang is getting long in the tooth and the avionics have not kept up with the competition. The M2 is nice, but more than we need. They would be selling those left and right to Cirrus SR22 and SF50 pilots wanting a little more. I don't think owner pilots are really on Textron's mind. They have a cushy market in the biz jet market that caters to those flying in the back.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:17 
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We would probably be in a Mustang if they still made them, and upgraded it in line with Cirrus/Piper and Socata. Autoland, GWX8000 radar, G3000, full envelope protection, are just the norm now for high end owner pilots. The Mustang is getting long in the tooth and the avionics have not kept up with the competition. The M2 is nice, but more than we need. They would be selling those left and right to Cirrus SR22 and SF50 pilots wanting a little more. I don't think owner pilots are really on Textron's mind. They have a cushy market in the biz jet market that caters to those flying in the back.


Flying at mid-30s jet altitudes I rarely use the radar at all, I use it all the time in the 340 in the mid-20s. The GWX-75 in the 340 is very capable, we have a GWX-70 in the Conquest and have had no urge to upgrade it to the 75.

The Mustang can be updated to the Nxi, not as fancy as the G3000/5000 but is a capable and modern system. Wouldn't hold me back from a Mustang if I was interested in that type of airplane. Autoland is a bigger deal for a single pilot aircraft but the CJ doesn't have that either (unless I am out of date?). You could always substitute a pinch hitter class.


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:18 
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Chip, what’s the cost delta between the M2 to CJ3+ and a new Phenom 100 to 300? That would be an interesting comparison…

Not to rain on the parade, but I think your CJ2+ with a tad more power and a G3000 is called a CJ3+ ;)


The Citation M2 is selling new in the mid $6M range and the CJ3+ is the $10M - $11M range. That's a pretty big delta, but I do appreciate that Cessna probably can't build the M3 I envision for much less than a CJ3+

I haven't priced a new Phenom 100EV in a while, but the book shows $5M and the price of a new 300E is in line with the CJ3+, which is sort of immaterial because you can't get one until 2025.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:22 
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Username Protected wrote:
We would probably be in a Mustang if they still made them, and upgraded it in line with Cirrus/Piper and Socata. Autoland, GWX8000 radar, G3000, full envelope protection, are just the norm now for high end owner pilots. The Mustang is getting long in the tooth and the avionics have not kept up with the competition. The M2 is nice, but more than we need. They would be selling those left and right to Cirrus SR22 and SF50 pilots wanting a little more. I don't think owner pilots are really on Textron's mind. They have a cushy market in the biz jet market that caters to those flying in the back.


I do 100% agree that they should bring back the Mustang, preferably a Mustang 2 with a little more room and range. But, to your point, why would they do that when it's no more effort to sell what they have.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:25 
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Username Protected wrote:
We would probably be in a Mustang if they still made them, and upgraded it in line with Cirrus/Piper and Socata. Autoland, GWX8000 radar, G3000, full envelope protection, are just the norm now for high end owner pilots. The Mustang is getting long in the tooth and the avionics have not kept up with the competition. The M2 is nice, but more than we need. They would be selling those left and right to Cirrus SR22 and SF50 pilots wanting a little more. I don't think owner pilots are really on Textron's mind. They have a cushy market in the biz jet market that caters to those flying in the back.


Flying at mid-30s jet altitudes I rarely use the radar at all, I use it all the time in the 340 in the mid-20s. The GWX-75 in the 340 is very capable, we have a GWX-70 in the Conquest and have had no urge to upgrade it to the 75.

The Mustang can be updated to the Nxi, not as fancy as the G3000/5000 but is a capable and modern system. Wouldn't hold me back from a Mustang if I was interested in that type of airplane. Autoland is a bigger deal for a single pilot aircraft but the CJ doesn't have that either (unless I am out of date?). You could always substitute a pinch hitter class.


Agreed! The Mustang is still more advanced and a newer design than the 525 series.

With NXi you aren't missing much that the G3000 has, other than touchpads.

Autoland would be nice, but you are correct that none of the Citations have it.
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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:31 
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Username Protected wrote:
They would be selling those left and right to Cirrus SR22 and SF50 pilots wanting a little more. I don't think owner pilots are really on Textron's mind.

In the 525 series, Textron is very focused on the owner flown market. It might be as much as half the sales of 525 airplanes, certainly at the M2 level.

The Mustang doesn't exist not because there isn't a market for it, there is, but because it costs more to make than an M2 due to being unique. The M2 wins on production efficiency due to shared design with the rest of the 525 series. Nobody would buy a Mustang that cost more than an M2, I would think.

When you sell to people who sit in back, buying a larger cabin airplane with 2 crew is the norm. Small cabin Citations aren't as favored.

The "M2" name was a marketing gimmick to sell a CJ as a Mustang replacement.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:39 
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When it comes to the 525 line, I'd have a hard time picking a favorite, but if you forced me to choose, it would definitely be the CJ2+!

The CJ3/3+ is by far the best selling 525 series, and I get that Textron doesn't see the point in bringing back the 2+ as an M3, after all why wouldn't people just buy the CJ3+?

This is a line of production minded thought that ignores the very real problems of market saturation and not maximizing the number of new transactions, better said the number of new airplane purchases a single buyer might complete. The step from the M2 to a CJ3+ is a huge one and one that many buyers just don't make, it's a jump that gets people to looking at Phenom 300's instead. Textron is missing out on move up sales.

The way that you maximize sales per customer is to provide an appropriate number of step ups. Cirrus has done a great job with this, so has Socata with the TBM. Textron... not so much, we've had the M2, CJ3 and CJ4 with very little excitement. Sure, they came out with the CJ3+ and "Gen 2" the M2 and CJ4... but meh. I'm sure they will come out with a CJ4+ at some point, but that still leaves a hole in the lineup.

The logic is why build four models when you can get by with three... the answer is that used CJ2+'s are selling for almost as much as NEW M2's! You have to keep the M2, it's now your entry level new jet, and I get the fact that the CJ3 does all that the 2+ does and then some, BUT it just isn't a CJ2+ and people do care. That is why the market is so hot for the 2+! If you look at what is best from a production standpoint instead of what is best from a sales standpoint, it will eventually catch up to you.

We just did a prepurchase input on a CJ2+ yesterday and as I climbed all over the airplane inside and out, I remembered again why it's so perfect. If the CJ3 is a Suburban, the CJ2+ is the Tahoe, it just looks sexy, it's the perfect size with perfect proportions.

I know it's just a dream and it probably won't happen, but I sure would like to see Textron produce an M3, I can't think of a cooler airplane than a CJ2+ with a tad more power, a Garmin G3000 and winglets (real winglets not blinglets)


Wait.....

Why are M2 owners looking at Phenom 300's? If the CJ3+ is in the same $ range?


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 13:47 
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Chip, what’s the cost delta between the M2 to CJ3+ and a new Phenom 100 to 300? That would be an interesting comparison…

Not to rain on the parade, but I think your CJ2+ with a tad more power and a G3000 is called a CJ3+ ;)


The Citation M2 is selling new in the mid $6M range and the CJ3+ is the $10M - $11M range. That's a pretty big delta, but I do appreciate that Cessna probably can't build the M3 I envision for much less than a CJ3+

I haven't priced a new Phenom 100EV in a while, but the book shows $5M and the price of a new 300E is in line with the CJ3+, which is sort of immaterial because you can't get one until 2025.



I’d say then that until someone builds and sells a 410 knot 6 passenger single pilot jet for $8 million (that splits it perfect between a 400 kt, 5 pax M2 and 420 kt, 7 pax CJ3), then there will only be a choice of M2/Phenom 100 or a CJ3+/Phenom 300. I think if there was a business case for an in between jet, both Textron and Embraer would be building it.

Same goes for the Mustang+ argument. More space, speed and Range…is called an M2. Like Mike C pointed out - the Mustang 2.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 14:59 
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Wait.....

Why are M2 owners looking at Phenom 300's? If the CJ3+ is in the same $ range?


Because it’s a better airplane :D

Brad


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 15:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
When it comes to the 525 line, I'd have a hard time picking a favorite, but if you forced me to choose, it would definitely be the CJ2+!

The CJ3/3+ is by far the best selling 525 series, and I get that Textron doesn't see the point in bringing back the 2+ as an M3, after all why wouldn't people just buy the CJ3+?

This is a line of production minded thought that ignores the very real problems of market saturation and not maximizing the number of new transactions, better said the number of new airplane purchases a single buyer might complete. The step from the M2 to a CJ3+ is a huge one and one that many buyers just don't make, it's a jump that gets people to looking at Phenom 300's instead. Textron is missing out on move up sales.

The way that you maximize sales per customer is to provide an appropriate number of step ups. Cirrus has done a great job with this, so has Socata with the TBM. Textron... not so much, we've had the M2, CJ3 and CJ4 with very little excitement. Sure, they came out with the CJ3+ and "Gen 2" the M2 and CJ4... but meh. I'm sure they will come out with a CJ4+ at some point, but that still leaves a hole in the lineup.

The logic is why build four models when you can get by with three... the answer is that used CJ2+'s are selling for almost as much as NEW M2's! You have to keep the M2, it's now your entry level new jet, and I get the fact that the CJ3 does all that the 2+ does and then some, BUT it just isn't a CJ2+ and people do care. That is why the market is so hot for the 2+! If you look at what is best from a production standpoint instead of what is best from a sales standpoint, it will eventually catch up to you.

We just did a prepurchase input on a CJ2+ yesterday and as I climbed all over the airplane inside and out, I remembered again why it's so perfect. If the CJ3 is a Suburban, the CJ2+ is the Tahoe, it just looks sexy, it's the perfect size with perfect proportions.

I know it's just a dream and it probably won't happen, but I sure would like to see Textron produce an M3, I can't think of a cooler airplane than a CJ2+ with a tad more power, a Garmin G3000 and winglets (real winglets not blinglets)


Wait.....

Why are M2 owners looking at Phenom 300's? If the CJ3+ is in the same $ range?


There's a lot I like about the CJ3+... but the Phenom 300E is a lot more airplane.
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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 15:58 
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I’d say then that until someone builds and sells a 410 knot 6 passenger single pilot jet for $8 million (that splits it perfect between a 400 kt, 5 pax M2 and 420 kt, 7 pax CJ3), then there will only be a choice of M2/Phenom 100 or a CJ3+/Phenom 300. I think if there was a business case for an in between jet, both Textron and Embraer would be building it.

Same goes for the Mustang+ argument. More space, speed and Range…is called an M2. Like Mike C pointed out - the Mustang 2.


Correct, Textron created the new technology, clean sheet design 510 line and then abandoned it because it was more economical to just take a CJ1+ and put a G3000 and blinglets on it and call it an M2.

The interesting thing about the Mustang is that it's working quite well for Textron, it feeds the M2 and by extension the CJ3+

We stay very active in the Mustang because it's a great airplane that hasn't gone crazy price wise, and we are very successful at finding really nice off market options because it's so common for an owner to be willing to sell his Mustang because he has an M2 on order.

Textron will at some point bring the Mustang, or some version of it back, but that's probably ten years from being a necessity.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 17:03 
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I’d say then that until someone builds and sells a 410 knot 6 passenger single pilot jet for $8 million (that splits it perfect between a 400 kt, 5 pax M2 and 420 kt, 7 pax CJ3), then there will only be a choice of M2/Phenom 100 or a CJ3+/Phenom 300. I think if there was a business case for an in between jet, both Textron and Embraer would be building it.

Same goes for the Mustang+ argument. More space, speed and Range…is called an M2. Like Mike C pointed out - the Mustang 2.


Correct, Textron created the new technology, clean sheet design 510 line and then abandoned it because it was more economical to just take a CJ1+ and put a G3000 and blinglets on it and call it an M2.

The interesting thing about the Mustang is that it's working quite well for Textron, it feeds the M2 and by extension the CJ3+

We stay very active in the Mustang because it's a great airplane that hasn't gone crazy price wise, and we are very successful at finding really nice off market options because it's so common for an owner to be willing to sell his Mustang because he has an M2 on order.

Textron will at some point bring the Mustang, or some version of it back, but that's probably ten years from being a necessity.


I think it would be interesting to see what kind of sales numbers Textron would have today if they still built new Mustangs. There is enough of a performance and cost gap between that and a new M2 that I think it would do well, but I suspect it might poach some M2 sales, so who knows. I’d like to think there are smarter folks at Textron that look at this stuff….but….it is Textron. And, it’s certainly more fun to speculate and play Keyboard CEO :)

You’re currently helping a friend buy a Mustang now. Hopefully everything comes in soon so you guys can close on it (and I can go for a ride!)&

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 21 Mar 2023, 17:20 
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I think it would be interesting to see what kind of sales numbers Textron would have today if they still built new Mustangs. There is enough of a performance and cost gap between that and a new M2 that I think it would do well, but I suspect it might poach some M2 sales, so who knows. I’d like to think there are smarter folks at Textron that look at this stuff….but….it is Textron. And, it’s certainly more fun to speculate and play Keyboard CEO :)

You’re currently helping a friend buy a Mustang now. Hopefully everything comes in soon so you guys can close on it (and I can go for a ride!)&


I think it was smart of them to build what I call a "sustainable market" of Mustangs, meaning that at 473 Mustangs there are plenty out there to fill that niche, so once they had that segment in place they focused on building and selling the M2, but at just 335 airplanes built over a ten year period, the M2 hasn't sold as well as the Mustang, and still has a few more years before they reach that 400+ units mark that seemed sufficient for the Mustang, CJ/CJ1, and CJ2/2+ models.

I think that overall the people who make the decisions at Textron are getting it right most of the time, they do make their decisions based primarily on economic factors. I come from a sales and marketing background so I'm always going to argue that doing what is best for the market is always best, even if it isn't best for the bottom line. Long term my way always wins... short term they get better numbers for their stockholders... can't fault them for that.

To a point raised earlier, if Embraer built something in between the 100 and the 300, it would be a hell of an airplane. A Phenom 250 could really hurt the M2 and the CJ3+

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