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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 15:36 
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Oh please don't turn this into another cost of capital thread... :coffee:

Chip-


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 15:51 
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Username Protected wrote:
Oh please don't turn this into another cost of capital thread...

Yeah, let's keep the thread on its intended purpose, creating a random topic for Chip McClure to espouse expert sounding opinions to drum up clients for his business.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 16:01 
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Username Protected wrote:

That might be true if you consider development cost, but other than that I don't see it.


As a Textron shareholder, I'm glad you're not in charge of running their business. Development cost is a real cost, and it has to be overcome...


Well then, you should be pissed that they invested all of that development cost and then abandoned the line.
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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 16:11 
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Username Protected wrote:

Mike,
Using your cost-of-capital math from the "other" thread, do you think a mustang or a garminized top-of-market 501sp makes more sense for a first time turbine owner at 30,000 nm/yr?
-J


Neither. Fractionals would be better. That's less than 100 hours a year. For the cost of capital/opportunity cost, time spent to be a competent and current pilot, potential AOG events, etc. it's not worth the effort, unless you enjoy the effort.

Mike C has laid out the case for how great and cheap it is to run legacy model jets. My opinion and I will let Mike opine for himself; he enjoys the job (even if it's frustrating at times) of managing a legacy aircraft.

All of Mike's arguments are pandering to a crowd of passionate pilots, who are willing to trade what is really valuable time, for the enjoyment of having 2nd job maintaining their aircraft.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 16:17 
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Username Protected wrote:
I don't know what Textron pays for a set of Pratt PW615F-A's, but I will guarantee you it is considerably less than what they pay for a set of Williams FJ44-1AP-21's.

Forgive me if I take your proclamations of what things cost with skepticism given recent statements refuted with actual evidence.
Mike C.


So I wasn't up to speed on what a Citation V windshield cost...

What else?
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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 16:19 
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Username Protected wrote:
Oh please don't turn this into another cost of capital thread...

Yeah, let's keep the thread on its intended purpose, creating a random topic for Chip McClure to espouse expert sounding opinions to drum up clients for his business.

Mike C.


Mike, Mike, Mike...

We have a full load of clients, we haven't needed to advertise or market our business for years.

I like airplanes, I like talking about them.

Is that so hard to understand?
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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 16:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
Fractionals would be better. That's less than 100 hours a year.

Have you priced that out? Including the dead head costs, and the scheduling problems?

A 25 hour NetJets lease is $10,000 per hour, 3 year contract, $250K for 25 hours, their smallest plane, Phenom 300.

I would take me at least 100 hours per year to duplicate my airplane usage, and that assumes no dead head hours.

So that's $1M/year.

I am WAY winning on flying my own Citation V over that! Not even close!

They also have blackout dates.

If you want to frax/charter, go ahead, but it isn't the same experience as having your own.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 17:42 
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Piaggio will eventually be bought, support will improve and they will put a garmin panel in it with autoland. It will fill the cj2 void :)

Flame away.

Half fuel burn, bigger cabin and better handling.
Support is fixable. New owner will do that to sell more planes. Cost fits nicely between m2 and cj3 etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
Fractionals would be better. That's less than 100 hours a year.

Have you priced that out? Including the dead head costs, and the scheduling problems?

A 25 hour NetJets lease is $10,000 per hour, 3 year contract, $250K for 25 hours, their smallest plane, Phenom 300.

I would take me at least 100 hours per year to duplicate my airplane usage, and that assumes no dead head hours.

So that's $1M/year.

I am WAY winning on flying my own Citation V over that! Not even close!

They also have blackout dates.

If you want to frax/charter, go ahead, but it isn't the same experience as having your own.

Mike C.


Where are your numbers coming from? Are you a user of their service? A 25 hour jet card is not the same as someone who leases or buys for 50-100 hr/year. Different price points of use.

Depending on the fractional there are: no dead head fees, no landing fees, no hanger fees, no destination hanger, ground fees, deice fees.

If your plane goes down, you're down. If a fractional goes down, they will have another to you in short order. Pilot gets sick, they will have a backup pilot. Blackout dates will only exist on the level you play and negotiate.

From a safety standpoint, fractionals do better: you have dual pilots, regularly trained, flying on a regular basis in all types of weather. They also have risk and safety management systems in place.

My point is that for someone flying less than 100 hours a year and not impassioned to take on a 2nd job of being a pilot and management company, it pencils out to go down the fractional/charter route. Most owners don't value their time enough and don't count up all the little pennies they spend every year. Every time I've done the math, fractionals are on par to someone that owns, hires a pilot, and has their plane managed.
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Last edited on 22 Mar 2023, 18:20, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:09 
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+1

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:19 
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Username Protected wrote:
The fundamental observation is that there is no VLJ, very light jet, product any more. The Eclipse and Mustang were it, a new market segment. But it was unsustainable for either to keep going.

The SF 50 is not a VLJ, it lacks jet performance and experience.

This is not due to lack of demand, lots of people would like a small personal jet, but due to lack of ability to execute a sustainable design.

Mike C.


I am confused, is the SF 50 not a jet? You say it's not a VLJ, what is it then? According to NBAA a VLJ is any jet with a gross weight under 10,000 lbs.

Yeah, it can't fly in the high FL's and has to slog it's way through the weather, but sure sounds like a jet when I hear take off. It's what, 10-20 knots slower than a Mustang?

SF 50 not a sustainable design? All I know is that Cirrus sold 90 of their non jets last year. More than any other VLJ or turboprop. From what I see they have over 400 jets on US registry alone. Whether you like them or not, they have a market of buyers that values it's capabilities.

And Cessna should be happy they have them. They are opening jet travel to a set of user who can then be sold on moving up into the Citation line. Citation Max is a classic example.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:23 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Username Protected wrote:
Where are your numbers coming from?

https://privatejetcardcomparisons.com/n ... rquis-jet/

"Jet cards start at 25 hours with the entry-level Embraer Phenom 300. 25-hour leases start at $10,205 per hour based on a 3-year contract. "

Quote:
A 25 hour jet card is not the same as someone who leases or buys for 50-100 years. Different price points of use.

Still not going to be cheaper.

Quote:
Depending on the fractional there are: no dead head fees, no landing fees, no hanger fees, no destination hanger, ground fees, deice fees.

Still not going to be cheaper.

Quote:
If your plane goes down, you're down. If a fractional goes down, they will have another to you in short order.

I was leaving KMCO Signature and there was a family of 6 who had to wait 3 days for a replacement plane from their frax service. It isn't as immediate as they claim it will be, especially in these times of higher demand.

Quote:
Blackout dates will only exist on the level you play and negotiate.

More money to have priority.

Quote:
From a safety standpoint, fractionals do better:

None of them have a better safety record than I do.

Quote:
Every time I've done the math, fractionals are on par to someone that owns, hires a pilot, and has their plane managed.

Show us the math, then.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:30 
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Username Protected wrote:
I am confused, is the SF 50 not a jet? You say it's not a VLJ, what is it then?

It is a turboprop in capability and performance.

I believe the FAA even treats it as such in the ATC system as far as not putting it on turbojet only arrivals.

Quote:
And Cessna should be happy they have them. They are opening jet travel to a set of user who can then be sold on moving up into the Citation line.

Yes, they are, I am sure, since the SF 50 doesn't actually deliver the true personal jet experience. A few 100 knot headwind days in weather will make that clear.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 18:54 
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I manage and fly 10 aircraft, 8 of which are Citations. I just bid for a contract and compared it to their current (March 2023) 1/8th share fractional proposal. 100 hours in a P300 amounted to $640,000, or $6,400/hr. For the CJ2+, full ownership, 100 hours of flight time, fixed costs, management fees, maintenance and part time pilots (EVERYTHING) come in approx. 50% of their number. It's a no brainer.

-Citation Jet Exchange

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 Post subject: Re: Textron! We need an M3!! (Citation CJ2+)
PostPosted: 22 Mar 2023, 19:01 
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Username Protected wrote:
Wait.....

Why are M2 owners looking at Phenom 300's? If the CJ3+ is in the same $ range?


M2 has it all over the Phenom 100 in all but two areas; 1) Cabin space, 2) Avionics/Systems integration.

Phenom 100 cabin in great in its class.
Phenom 100, like the Mustang a clean-sheet design systems well integrated.
Those are the only two advantages that it has over the M2.

From a performance perspective, the M2 has it all over the Phenom.
I wanted badly to like & buy a Phenom 100, but could not get beyond the issues.


The Phenom 100 is under-powered.
The Phenom 100 has boots instead of a hot wing for de-ice.
The Phenom 100 has far worse runway performance than the M2. I go in and out of 5,000' runways in my most common city pairs. On a hot day, Phenom 100 cannot do it. With snow on the runway, forget about it.
The Phenom 100 has the funky brake by wire system, but old-fashioned steel brakes vs ceramic. I could go on.

The M2 has bettter performance
Runway, Hot & high runway, contaminated runway, one engine inop, etc.

The Phenom 300 however, has excellent performance numbers. It has a great cabin. Systems well integrated. Yes, it has the funky brake by wire system, but with the brakes it has, (not sure if ceramic or carbon fiber) stops very well even on wet & contaminated. Phenom 300 can hold its own performance wise with the Citation line and it has a better cabin.

Look at the numbers. In 2022, Textron 33 Citatoin M2s, Embraer sold 7 Phenom 100EVs. But then go up the ladder, in 2022 Embraer sold 59 Phenom 300/300Es. Textron sold 58 CJ3+ and CJ4s. At the bottom of the Citation line, Textron outsells Embraer almost 5:1. At the top of the Citation line Textron & Embraer are at parity. The 300 is a good airplane, great performance, great cabin, brakes a bit funky but they will work as advertised.


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