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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 09:58 
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Should all of the ZFW markers be at 0 miles range?

No if there is still fuel that can be loaded when you reach ZFW. It is your max load range as opposed to your max fuel range. The chart is entirely at max weight divided between fuel and cabin.

There are a lot of assumptions hiding inside it, though, like empty weight for each type, what altitudes are used, what power settings, what reserves, what mods are applied, etc. The 501, in particular, has gross and ZFW mods which changes things in terms of weight it can carry which would move its curve up higher on the chart (more cabin load).

For KBZN to KHWD, when I run Fltplan.com numbers for 501, at FL360, I get 36 knot headwind, 2:30 time, 358 gallons. So the chart does seem pessimistic for it. The 501 is the cheapest plane in the group. Buy one with an FJ44 conversion and it will go faster and use less fuel (but cost more to get and engine costs will go up).

For KBZN to KHWD, Citation V is 2:07 flight time, 430 gallons, at max cruise and FL400. This is into a 35 knot headwind (similar to the others plotted). With an adequate reserve, I can carry 3000 lbs in the cabin doing that.

If I slow down to long range cruise, FL430, flight time is 2:12, headwinds die down to 30 knots (they do this going higher in the 40s usually), and I use 363 gallons.

People who buy a 501 instead of a V to save fuel aren't really doing that if they fly the V higher, which is reasonable given the better climb it has. I can use about the same fuel, and arrive faster, in the V as the 501. This is a very satisfying thing to know!

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 10:03 
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CAPex Vs OPex, finding the balance that fits is the key here.

That's right.

For the typical owner flown airplane getting 100 to 150 hours/year, the cost of capex per hour is very significant and is often ignored.

That cost will pay for a lot of fuel if you buy a cheaper airplane that uses more.

It does require an awareness of where the actual costs are. The invisible loss of value due to high capex has to balance the directly visible cost of buying fuel.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 10:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
You have to be emotionally compatible with paying a lot for fuel in lieu of ...

Mike C.


Now that is a real pearl and sooooo true !

CAPex Vs OPex, finding the balance that fits is the key here.


Exactly.

Wealthy people like nice things. They’ll trade a lot of Capex for luxury, especially if they can justify it with lower Opex.

Few people sell their jets to buy a cheaper jet. Most move up regularly, with each jet being nicer, newer and faster than the last.
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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 10:15 
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Being a Beechcraft forum I am surprised that a Premier hasn't come up in all of this jet talk. An uneducated Google search makes it look comparable to a Citation V.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 11:26 
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The Premier was a one off from Beech that did not do well. In comparison there aren't many flying, I'd recommend reading Dick Karl's articles about his experience with ownership of a Premier. He had a minor birdstrike and they totaled the plane. Seems like insurance can't wait to get rid of them all.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 11:54 
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Username Protected wrote:
The Premier was a one off from Beech that did not do well. In comparison there aren't many flying, I'd recommend reading Dick Karl's articles about his experience with ownership of a Premier. He had a minor birdstrike and they totaled the plane. Seems like insurance can't wait to get rid of them all.

https://www.flyingmag.com/when-bird-str ... you-think/

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 12:04 
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I did some quick math based on low utilization of 25,000 miles a year (realistic for me over the last few years given young kids and demanding work scheduling). Basically a $25,000 difference in fuel cost to fly those miles between a meridian and a 501.

Looking at the capex costs, it seems that 501’s are now in the 600k range for something with decent engine times, and a jet prop or meridian on the lower end of the spectrum is 950k.

That math works out pretty favorable for the 501.

The question for me then comes down to maintenance (piper should be less complicated and cheaper, but there are huge stores of citation parts from the boneyards), and engines. Will the reasonable citation engines running on fresh hots only remain viable options in 10-15 years when that becomes an issue for a low utilization user? If not, then you’ve got a paperweight 501.

Insurance could also be a factor, but I’d probably be planning on a liability only type situation - especially on the citation.

Last, as a cold bucket of reality, with the kind of use I can do right now (factored into the above), a combination of charter, a few first class plane tickets, and my current bug smashers for <400mi trips also makes a ton more financial sense. I can just deploy the capex costs and come out quite a bit ahead. I still have the bug though.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 13:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
I did some quick math based on low utilization of 25,000 miles a year (realistic for me over the last few years given young kids and demanding work scheduling). Basically a $25,000 difference in fuel cost to fly those miles between a meridian and a 501.

The limiting factors you cite are based on time, not distance. You have a certain amount of *time* to fly. When you get the jet, you will fly more miles because you can. The actual cost of the jet will be higher per year than you'd get from calculating it just based on the number of miles you fly today.

How many pilots do you know who upgraded to a more capable plane and then flew fewer hours?

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 13:44 
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Username Protected wrote:
That math works out pretty favorable for the 501.

Yes, it does.

And the math doesn't consider safety, speed, and comfort, all major pluses for the 501.

Quote:
Will the reasonable citation engines running on fresh hots only remain viable options in 10-15 years when that becomes an issue for a low utilization user? If not, then you’ve got a paperweight 501.

I think so based on people saying the same thing 10 to 15 years ago and here we are with plenty of viable Citations out there. I am sure in 10 to 15 years, they will be flying just fine.

There are enough planes and demand that creative solutions will be found to keeping them going.

Note that Piper Meridians have a life limited fuselage at 10,145 hours (per the TCDS A25SO). They do have a hard end of life moment.

Jet hours are a lot less damaging to an airframe than prop hours. The lower vibration just doesn't cause as much damage.

Quote:
Insurance could also be a factor, but I’d probably be planning on a liability only type situation - especially on the citation.

Actually, that's kind of backwards.

First, the Meridian insurance is likely to be quite a bit more due to higher hull value.

Second, the accident rate for Citations is very low, like no fatal accidents of ALL US registered business jets in 2022. Jets are just safer than any other airplane you can buy.

Third, I find underwriters are willing to insure hull values more than liability for jets. In my case, I have the $900K hull value insured and have minimal liability ($1M/$100K), all for $11K premium despite low time in type and flying single pilot much of the time. So you may find insuring the hull value relatively easy (especially for a $600K 501) and getting high liability limits quite hard.

Todd Long just posted about his 500 purchase, he is insured for $11K.

Quote:
Last, as a cold bucket of reality, with the kind of use I can do right now (factored into the above), a combination of charter, a few first class plane tickets, and my current bug smashers for <400mi trips also makes a ton more financial sense.

That's like arguing a Greyhound bus is cheaper than your car.

It is, but it isn't the same experience.

When you die, what you did with your life matters more than the bank balance you left behind.

If you want to be at 10,000 ft and out of a snow storm in 3 minutes, you need one of these:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/dFBg9UfMk2A[/youtube]

Takeoff in 1400 ft, at FL290 in 9 minutes, fighting a 110 knot headwind but still making 300 knots over the ground.

Okay, a 501 won't do that exactly, but you get the idea.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 13:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
How many pilots do you know who upgraded to a more capable plane and then flew fewer hours?

You are confusing yearly budget with cost of operation.

You want the plane to deliver more value, that's the point.

If you buy a Cessna 150 and fly it 150 hours, it isn't serving your mission, but it will be cheap!

Apples to apples is miles to miles.

If the next plane has more seats or payload that you actually end up using, that's some value, too.

I never thought I have 9 in my V, but I have, and 7 a number of times. You suddenly get more friends when you own a jet, BTW.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 14:48 
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After 40 pages, I'll go ahead and answer the op's question.

If the Meridian does your mission BUY IT.

If you want to spend less than $1M buy the JetProp.

It is well established that the least expensive turbine to own and operate is the PA-46.

All I have seen is a bunch of comparing airplanes that aren't equal. Buy a JetProp with a past TBO engine and it will be very similar in price to a 501 and IT WILL BE CHEAPER TO OPERATE. PERIOD.

This cannot be debated, you have one PT6 vs two JT15's, that is easily double the financial exposure all by itself.

Sure, you can say that if you buy a 501 and nothing breaks it will as cheap, while ignoring the fact that there's a lot more to break.

The op is considering a move up from a Bonanza to a PA-46, that sounds like a good and sensible move, if he does want to skip a step and go to a jet, he's got an earful of why and how you can operate a legacy jet cheap.

It is important to point out that to get the scheduled maintenance cost of a jet anywhere near as cheap as a PA-46, you have to cut corners. The Piper is cheap to maintain because it is stupid simple.

You'll also experience a lot less unscheduled maintenance events, I tell all of our clients considering jets that the biggest difference, from a cost standpoint, is that when you own a jet you need to be able to write a check for $50k - $100k for something unexpected and it not bother you.

I've been doing this a long time, those hits will come. I absolutely guarantee it.

I'm not dogging legacy Citations, I love them. But let's get real about the reality of operating these airplanes.

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 15:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
Wealthy people like nice things.

I don't know if we're wealthy, but my wife hasn't even figured out that we're well off yet it seems. I asked her last night why she doesn't want me to fly us super first class in a nicer plane. She said, "we're not first class people. Our oldest son opened up our youngest son's diaper the other day to see if he pees like he does. "


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 15:45 
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Chip

Serious question, have you owned and flown any of these planes you recommend?

Jet prop? That’s what you recommend? Would you like to share the safety record of that make and model?

You are worried about all the readers of this forum getting bad advice from Mike C when you tell a guy he should buy a Jetprop? Haha

Jetprop has a lot of issues the major one it’s useful load.

Mike

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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 16:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
I did some quick math based on low utilization of 25,000 miles a year (realistic for me over the last few years given young kids and demanding work scheduling). Basically a $25,000 difference in fuel cost to fly those miles between a meridian and a 501.

Looking at the capex costs, it seems that 501’s are now in the 600k range for something with decent engine times, and a jet prop or meridian on the lower end of the spectrum is 950k.

That math works out pretty favorable for the 501.

The question for me then comes down to maintenance (piper should be less complicated and cheaper, but there are huge stores of citation parts from the boneyards), and engines. Will the reasonable citation engines running on fresh hots only remain viable options in 10-15 years when that becomes an issue for a low utilization user? If not, then you’ve got a paperweight 501.

Insurance could also be a factor, but I’d probably be planning on a liability only type situation - especially on the citation.

Last, as a cold bucket of reality, with the kind of use I can do right now (factored into the above), a combination of charter, a few first class plane tickets, and my current bug smashers for <400mi trips also makes a ton more financial sense. I can just deploy the capex costs and come out quite a bit ahead. I still have the bug though.

Let's be real - owning and flying your own airplane never makes financial sense if you live anywhere close to a city with 121 service. So let's just leave that there.

You also need to consider the massive improvement in passenger (and pilot) experience in a 501 vs a Meridian. The 501 cabin is enormous compared to a Meridian. Your passengers can get up and move around (helpful when you have kids with you - you can rotate seats wen they get antsy). Plus you can carry (a lot) more people and stuff. I have a 1,500lb full fuel payload.

Also, flying in the mid to upper 30's means en-route weather is generally a non-issue. Sure, you can have convective cells that go above this but you can typically wiggle through them. I have experienced a squall line across the entire FL panhandle that extended up to 450. Had to go around that one but so did everyone else. Yesterday we flew from the Bahamas back home to Tulsa. There were clouds, showers, small storm cells, and icing for a huge portion from Florida to Tulsa. We were above it the entire time. We picked up a trace of ice on descent into Meridian, MS for fuel (and again on climb out) but otherwise didn't care. The climb and descent profiles are so fast I didn't even need the boots. It was all just a carpet of white, far below us. This translates into vastly improved safety for myself and my family. I will gladly trade additional fuel burn for that and is one of the major reasons I jumped from the SR22 to the 501.


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 Post subject: Re: Talk me into / out of a Meridian
PostPosted: 19 Mar 2023, 16:10 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip

Serious question, have you owned and flown any of these planes you recommend?

Jet prop? That’s what you recommend? Would you like to share the safety record of that make and model?

You are worried about all the readers of this forum getting bad advice from Mike C when you tell a guy he should buy a Jetprop? Haha

Jetprop has a lot of issues the major one it’s useful load.

Mike


Mike,

Before starting Jet Acquisitions in 2015, I worked for stocking aircraft dealers. I have extensive experience with all of the aircraft mentioned here, including operating them, and managing them through maintenance events. That’s just the hands on experience, I spend all day every day talking about aircraft and their operation, with owners, pilots, mechanics and brokers who are experts on different types of aircraft.

What does the useful load of a JetProp or Meridian have to do with operating cost?

I addressed that in my first sentence, “IF” the Meridian does your mission, I mentioned the JetProp because you can find an older one cheaper. It’s important to note that the Meridian only beats the JetProp if you’re talking 2003 or newer or has the gross weight increase. The JetProp burns less fuel, so more range all things being the same.

As far as safety, I think that likely has a lot more to do with pilot experience than anything else. It’s also common to lump the turbine aircraft in with the Malibu, the Malibu is a good airplane that is asking an awful lot of a piston engine.

I’m actually not a fan of the PA-46, I think it lightly built for a turbine. BUT, it is cheap to own and operate.

I’m certainly not a Meridian expert, we do not do Meridian or JetProp acquisitions. We do acquisitions of legacy Citations and would gladly do a 501 as long as it was for a client that is capable of doing what’s required to own and operate one.

I’ll flip the question on you. Have you owned a Meridian?

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Last edited on 19 Mar 2023, 16:16, edited 1 time in total.

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