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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 08:06 
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All the airplanes being competed were capable of austere ops, they did that testing years ago. The lesser complexity still lends itself to the AvFID mission if they decide to go that way, assisting African nations the same way they assisted Jordan in that article I linked above

Years ago, the USAF Chief of Staff said the USAF would never be in the Light Fixed Wing business. Spoke with some AFSOC folks; the USAF changed their minds because this takes pressure off of AC-130 and other 4th and 5th Gen airframes for a lot less money (duh!). They'll actually be providing the additional bodies to AFSOC to man these units.

This concept had been in testing since 2008 at least, to include small scale test deployments overseas. We've been pushing this for years as a way to save the bigger airframes for near-peer war with so much resistance, I couldn't believe it's finally become a reality until taliing to sone insiders. Of course, in true USAF form, 15 years too late.

What this airplane brings is ISR (multiple sensors), probably datalink/comms relay capability to connect folks on the ground to C2, almost a 10k lb payload, and 10 hrs loiter depending on combat radius. Carrying more and staying longer means less total airframes required, which is the number one concern, by far, for a community always stretched thin by constant deployments. It can't go as high or fast as the others, but speed isn't that great of a concern and as long as it can fly high enough so as to be hard to detect, it meets the need.


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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 11:13 
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Love to know the headcount requirements to keep it operational. Last that I knew, each Predator needed a team of ~128.

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 11:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
Love to know the headcount requirements to keep it operational. Last that I knew, each Predator needed a team of ~128.


What's the headcount for a U-28? For that matter, what is it for a fighter?


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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 16:36 
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Dunno. Never worked those programs. Numbers such as these can get mighty squishy depending upon the assumptions (desired outcome).

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 18:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
What's the headcount for a U-28? For that matter, what is it for a fighter?


About 3 to 1 aircrew to airplanes. Mx manning depends on how much mx is done in-house and how much is outsourced, that varies per airframe and per base.

The comparison between the U-28 and AT-802 manning levels are only relevant if the one is replacing the other, then USAF only has to supply the delta between the two. But, you have to include more than just potentially different manning ratios (2 pilots in U-28 vs 1 pilot in AT-802), you have to include whether contractor mx or USAF mx, what additional mx troops you may need, if any, based on different mx requirements, such as ejection seat/parachute, etc.

Same goes for MQ-9 vs AT-802. I doubt the MQ-9 will be drawn down, but, if it is, those manpower savings can be shifted over where applicable (enlisted sensor operator slots will have to be converted to some enlisted non-aviator billets on the AT-802 since the sensor operators are officer CSOs. MQ-9 has more intel billets than an AT-802 squadron, but intel billets aren't interchangeable with others, so those would just be shifted to other intel requirements elsewhere. Much of the contractor backshop RPA support like network mx, etc is required whether you have one RPA or 100, so no savings there unless it goes away completely. Etc, etc.

Based on the USSOCOM CG comments, AT-802 will be in addition to U-28, at least in the short term. So, the manpower is all additive.


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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 18:39 
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US Special Operations Command chooses L3Harris' Sky Warden for Armed Overwatch effort. It will replace the U-28 (PC-12)

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/08 ... ch-effort/


I was at L-3 Waco for a project a few years ago, and they were flying these all day at KCNW


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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 21:52 
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I was an action officer in the USSOCOM J-3 from 1990-1993 (the command stood up in 1988). At that time, the Hqs had about 300 personnel, most of the directorates were staffed by operators i.e. SEALS, SF or AFSOC personnel (ok, we had a few USMC also). The total budget then was about $1B. The unique thing about USSOCOM is that the legislation which established it, also endowed it with its own funding known at MFP 11.

Today the USSOCOM budget is over $12B and the Hqs has about 4,000 personnel at MacDill AFB.

IMHO, this platform is more oriented towards Close Air Support where rotary wing assets can’t easily get to especially in austere environments (where SOF loves play). From the article quoted:

“ AFSOC envisions its armed overwatch platform as a reconfigurable, multi-mission aircraft that will conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions and perform close air support of ground forces.”

CAS support from an AC-130J is one of the most ask for and heavily tasked missions, this looks to me like a more affordable and agile way to support the SOF ground elements with a much smaller footprint.

I flew the MC-130E Combat Talon I, never flew the gunship, but I do know that the nothing instills fear in your enemy like a good CAS platform. The AT-802 fills the gap between rotary wing and large gunship CAS.

Butch

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 09:54 
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Butch,

First....how things have changed since you left. It's a "true" staff now. I felt as if I had to go around reminding people we were still at war.

Many have been advocating this capability for over a decade. Project Fury dates back to 2008 at least. EVERYONE at the AO level thought this was the most common sense win ever.....the GO's had an opinion that was 180 out.

Look how long this concept has been "tested" in CONUS and out. Testing at Eglin, Nellis, and WSMR. Fly-off's. They did it all....just to drag it out and hope it died on the vine. Meanwhile, 4th and 5th Gen fleets were getting flown into the ground doing orbits over extremely permissive environments dropping PGM's on Pax in the Open. Want to see the level of waste......just search for B-2 steike on Libya and see where they sent 2 x B-2s to drop 108 JDAMS to kill less than 80 pax in the open. Then look at that Camp Strike vignette in the link I posted above to see how they took out over twice as many for 1/100th the cost.

And more is better. When I left, only 23% of fixed wing requirements were being met. Less than that in RW after AFSOC got rid of every helo for a few CV-22s and the USN decommissioned HSC-84 and HSC-85, the only USN helo units specifically trained to support SOF.

I even argued for dual-qualed squadrons that operated MQ-9 and LFW (like this AT-802) simultaneously. Not only did it ease manning woes, it made tactical sense. You could either maintain true dual-qual or maintain a Full Mission Ready status in one and Partial Mission Ready (landing currency only) in another and seamlessly transition between them as the mission requires.

There is significant overlap between the two, like 95% or more! And a scenario over a long term could easily swap back between which is most appropriate.

But AFSOC, ironically being from a history of ultimate flexibility, is incredibly inflexible. Even their "flex" initiatives are bound by endless bureaucratic processes.

They made the 193rd SOS into MC-130s against all AFSOC leadership efforts. They can do this. But, the question for both is why so long?????


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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 10:54 
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Is Gen Clarke still there? I worked for him at 10th MTN and 82nd. Great friggin guy. Given his background, I bet he was a strong advocate for this platform.

I'd love to come fly the air tractor if you have use for a 30+ year O-6.

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 12:48 
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Rich Clarke is still the Commander. Bryan Fenton has been nominated and is awaiting confirmation.

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 13:10 
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Very Interested to see where Gen Clarke goes. He is a very gifted leader. I hope he is moving up and not out.

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 14:59 
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Agreed, he has served well. Often this is the last assignment unless you get someone like Joe Votel, who moved over to Commander CENTCOM.

Rich brought a steadiness to the Command and brought in transformational efforts to shift the focus from two decades of CT operations and towards the next fight without shelving the lessons and techniques adopted to keep the Force successful in the irregular fight (as evidenced by the investment in the AT-802 program).

I am a believer in the utility of "lots of bang with the smallest foot print" required for the fight.

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 15:11 
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Brett,

Thanks for your update. The point I was making (and you confirmed) is that the larger the command structure gets, the wheels grind slower and slower.

I can well imagine the teams want and need this platform ASAP. There aren’t enough
AC-130s to go around and RW are tough to operate and maintain in far away places.

I agree that AFSOC will try to make the AT-802 additive to the fleet, their growth has been exponential since I left. When I showed up at KHRT to learn to fly the MC-130E in 1983, there was one squadron of AC-130E gunships (IIRC 16 airplanes), 3 Combat Talon squadrons (13 airplanes), a couple of squadrons MH-53, and the highest ranking officer was the wing commander O-6 at KHRT. That was 3 years after Desert One, and 7 years before they stood up AFSOC.

I hope this new platform has got the speed, technology and the firepower to do the job. My only regret is that I won’t be able to fly it.

Butch

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 15:14 
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Agreed. I lobbied for the acquisition of the A-29, the C-208, and the Air Tractor. I also worked to get the competitions started for what became the Light Attack Strike Program (OA-X) competition that took place at Holloman. I am a full support of complete spectrum operations. We have to have multiple competencies across the spectrum of conflict to be a credible deterrent. I'm too old now, but I would have jumped at the chance to lead a combined TACP/Light Attack Squadron.

Good luck with the new program

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 Post subject: Re: SOCOM chooses the AT-802 for armed overwatch
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 15:51 
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Username Protected wrote:
US Special Operations Command chooses L3Harris' Sky Warden for Armed Overwatch effort. It will replace the U-28 (PC-12)

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/08 ... ch-effort/


Knarly plane. I think a couple of those flying the Rio Grand at 100 feet letting out some short bursts once in awhile could help curb the illegal immigration problem. ;)


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