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 Post subject: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 18:19 
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CK pointed out in the Biplane thread that I have old airplane sickness. It's true. I love old airplanes. I love old things in general like cars, buildings, and so on for their aesthetics as well as the romance of their history. But I love airplanes the most. When the subject of war birds comes up my mind goes to those built between 1914 and 1918 (though later craft are still beautiful, inspiring and, well, old).

As I go to fly ins, read posts in type clubs and talk to owners about older planes, and particularly older prewar biplanes like Wacos, Travel Airs, Great Lakes and so on I notice that almost all owners are advancing in age even more significantly than the typical GA pilot/owner and that there are even fewer "younger" owners than typical (an exception would be in the Stearman community where it seems like there are more "middle aged" owners than with owners of other types). Most of my biplane "friends" are in their 80's in fact with another large contingent in their 70's. Many, if not most, of these have been active in their type for decades.

It's sad, but clear, that a lot of knowledge is being, and going to be, lost in the near future.

I am also seeing a slow erosion in airplane values. Even the current inflationary trend in GA is not affecting this. One would hope that falling prices would attract younger owners but either those prospects don't exist at all, or prices haven't fallen far enough yet.

I'm curious what others are noticing if you have paid attention to this corner of GA. So far I see the older guys wanting prices for their planes that represent a time gone by and not likely to come back. I'd like to collect a few high quality examples of golden age aviation to preserve them for the future (and enjoy taking care of them for the present too) but think most are way over priced compared to where their values will be in ten to twenty years when it's my turn to stop flying.

What do you think?

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 18:43 
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Those planes from that era are wonderful. I am thankful that you are one of those who strive to honor and maintain these aircraft.

However, I wonder whether there is a connection to a thread from a few years ago, where the value of fine china and silverware was discussed. Seems that the younger generations have no interest in being given these heirlooms and they have virtually no value.

I hope that it not the case for the earliest aircraft.

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 19:30 
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In all things collectable I find a trend that people are drawn toward what they wanted as a kid. People want cool cars from when they were a teenager and couldn't afford that special car. Same with airplanes I'd wager, people want what they wanted as a 10 yr old kid and couldn't have.

We're running out of people who were around when these planes were in their hayday/in movies and TV etc so it's logical to me that interest is wanting.

Couple that with the fact that parts are non-existent and cost of ownership is extremely high and you get a recipe for declining demand unfortunately.

What's the maintenance on first world war era planes? I imagine it's still A&P only? Finding one willing and able to work on them is going to be a task in itself.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 19:48 
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I’m a hopeless romantic about most all things that I have an intrinsic affection for. I’m sick. It’s a bit depressing, knowing that I am among the last keepers. At the same time, it’s very rewarding to be able to do what I can, with the slightest hope that just one or a few will pick up the torch.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 19:54 
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In my 20s I was a WACO nut. We would drive to Mt. Vernon to attend the fly in every year. To say that the owners of the airplanes were unwelcoming to us youngsters would be an understatement. They had their club and it was most exclusive. Never mind that we were pilots, mechanics, and restorers of “lesser” airplanes. At the time we laughed among ourselves and drank beer and had a good time, while laughing that someday those snooty bastards would be gone and it would be us flying their old airplanes.

Now, 25 years later, they are reaping what they have sown. As you have found, these folks are dying off and they still think their equipment is worth a bundle. The market is indeed shrinking, and it will continue to do so. What a shame. But, for those of us with the interest and abilities, there will be some nice airplanes to be had. And these same folks are now calling me looking for help maintaining their old equipment. I just got a call recently about doing the annual on an F2.

FWIW, I had an RNF for a while, and now have a beautiful 220 Fleet that I restored. I intend to own a Cabin Waco at some point. There are two morals to my story: be nice to the younger generation, and shop for the already restored antique airplanes and cars. The costs to restore are much greater than buying one that is already done.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 20:02 
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How old does an airplane have to be to be considered an antique? What are the other considerations that are attributes of an antique?


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 20:16 
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Username Protected wrote:
In my 20s I was a WACO nut. We would drive to Mt. Vernon to attend the fly in every year. To say that the owners of the airplanes were unwelcoming to us youngsters would be an understatement. They had their club and it was most exclusive. Never mind that we were pilots, mechanics, and restorers of “lesser” airplanes. At the time we laughed among ourselves and drank beer and had a good time, while laughing that someday those snooty bastards would be gone and it would be us flying their old airplanes.

Now, 25 years later, they are reaping what they have sown. As you have found, these folks are dying off and they still think their equipment is worth a bundle. The market is indeed shrinking, and it will continue to do so. What a shame. But, for those of us with the interest and abilities, there will be some nice airplanes to be had. And these same folks are now calling me looking for help maintaining their old equipment. I just got a call recently about doing the annual on an F2.

FWIW, I had an RNF for a while, and now have a beautiful 220 Fleet that I restored. I intend to own a Cabin Waco at some point. There are two morals to my story: be nice to the younger generation, and shop for the already restored antique airplanes and cars. The costs to restore are much greater than buying one that is already done.


Tom,

I've run into arseholes my whole life as I'll bet you have. It certainly isn't limited to a particular part of aviation. I've noticed that those who truly have a lot are generally not like that - it's those who just have more than most, and as a consequence think they're special. Your point is a great reminder to stay humble.

I was at a fly in recently and I didn't meet any snooty people. Everyone I met was actually very friendly. But I did feel a bit of an outsider simply because I was new. That didn't bother me as I've been that my whole life. What I have noticed is that in this little corner of aviation I've met some really nice, warm, helpful and friendly people. They may be reaping what they've sown but my guess is that this part of aviation is just a victim of declining interest like the rest of GA. And their unrealistic (in my opinion anyway) view of their airplane's values is probably just the most depression they can stomach about the loss they must take if they sell.

There was a guy here in OKC when I was in my 20's who IIRC flew 65 airplanes, all personally owned by him, on his 65th birthday. I'll never do that, not the least of the reasons is I'll be 65 in a few months and I only own 3 airplanes, but I love the idea.

How much will values decline over the next 20 years? I want to calibrate my offers...

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 21:05 
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Joined: 07/16/17
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I love old airplanes.

Currently restoring my 1946 7AC, and have a 1947 C140 to fix up after the Champ is done.

The Champ was owned by my dad before I came along, and I grew up hearing stories and seeing photos of it. Tracked it down and bought it about 4 years ago.

The 140 was also owned by my dad, the wings needed to be recovered and the project became more than he wanted to mess with, so I got it from him.

I would love to have a cabin Waco or a Howard DGA someday, or maybe a C195. A Stearman would also be in the running. Too many airplanes, too little time/money.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 21:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
Most of my biplane "friends" are in their 80's in fact with another large contingent in their 70's. Many, if not most, of these have been active in their type for decades.


This is kinda true for general aviation as a whole.

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 21:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
In my 20s I was a WACO nut. We would drive to Mt. Vernon to attend the fly in every year. To say that the owners of the airplanes were unwelcoming to us youngsters would be an understatement. They had their club and it was most exclusive. Never mind that we were pilots, mechanics, and restorers of “lesser” airplanes. At the time we laughed among ourselves and drank beer and had a good time, while laughing that someday those snooty bastards would be gone and it would be us flying their old airplanes.

Now, 25 years later, they are reaping what they have sown. As you have found, these folks are dying off and they still think their equipment is worth a bundle. The market is indeed shrinking, and it will continue to do so. What a shame. But, for those of us with the interest and abilities, there will be some nice airplanes to be had. And these same folks are now calling me looking for help maintaining their old equipment. I just got a call recently about doing the annual on an F2.

FWIW, I had an RNF for a while, and now have a beautiful 220 Fleet that I restored. I intend to own a Cabin Waco at some point. There are two morals to my story: be nice to the younger generation, and shop for the already restored antique airplanes and cars. The costs to restore are much greater than buying one that is already done.


Tom,
When I was younger, I had a similar position. After I’ve gotten older, I’ve learned that the enamored lush and buoyant attitude those crusty old farts presented was just that, a presentation. They really want you to be interested. Don’t give up, and don’t take advantage of them either.

I’m planning to become a crusty old fart within the next ten years. I am in great anticipation of the fun :dance: :D


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 21:29 
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Redman's build more biplanes a year than most everyone else combined. They aint cheap either, but compared to a new carbon cub they are a bargain. That being said, there has never been a huge demand because of the costs required to restore one. Very few "young" people have the money, and even fewer have the skill to restore one. I quit worrying about the value of airplanes along time ago. If your worried about value or getting your money back out, old airplanes is not where you want to be. Like my buddy said, its like owning a vacuum tube store. Enjoy them, fly them, pass on the enthusiasm and maybe they will remain more than a roadside attraction during the rest of our lifetime.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 22:48 
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Tony,

Truth is, that at our points in life, our "investments" in airplanes are such a small % of our worth as to be irrelevant. Value is in the satisfaction we get from owning what we like.

Still, I understand the perspective you present. We have spent our lives judging monetary value and resale. It is hard to break old habits. :thumbup:

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 01 Aug 2022, 23:22 
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To answer your original question, I think it will take another ten years before the bottom drops out of the antique airplane market. Too many guys hanging on. At least 5 years.

I paid $7.50/gallon for gas in my Bonanza on the way to Oshkosh. It cost me $800 for the round trip from my place in Tennessee. While I can afford to do that a couple times a year, that is a lot of money in my family. I think that if avgas prices stay at these levels then the whole general aviation market is in trouble. I am lucky to have a Luscombe and a Cessna 170 that burn car gas, and I get paid to fly faster airplanes. All the avgas burning toy airplane values are going to drop if 100ll stays high. My favorite airplane at Oshkosh this year was Doug R’s Mr. Mulligan. If he gave it to me I couldn’t afford to operate it.

Johnny, I’m grateful that you and many others might not count your airplanes’ values as a major portion of your net worth, but I don’t think it’s as common as you think. Most of us are hung out there more than we want to admit, because we really love aviation. Hopefully our investments and enjoyments continue to be affordable and valuable.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 08:03 
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Tom,

I think you know that I'm not blind, naive, or arrogant. I understand, and appreciate, the sacrifices that many make in balancing their assets so they can afford an airplane. My position did not come easily or without sacrifice. There have been times in my adult life that I had to make significant sacrifices in aviation due to financial demands in other areas.

I agree that the price of fuel can be the death knell. Even though other costs are sky rocketing, fuel bites you every time you pull up to the pump. Remember in a line from Christmas Vacation, "a gift that keeps on giving." :lol:

The good news is that many older airplanes will run just fine on non-ethanol mogas. Both my 180 and 195 are quite content with it, as well as the Cub.

IMO, as much as fuel prices, I see insurance becoming a larger issue. My age, at 73, is giving the insurance underwriters an excuse to raise my rates significantly. It does not help that I have a huge amount invested in both the 180 and 195 beyond the "typical" example.

I have been saying "all of the above" for a long time. In a thread that I started, I said a couple of years before covid that I could see maintenance costs rising significantly. As has happened more than once with my posts, I was hung and garroted. I laugh when I recall a post I made about ADSB mandates probably 5 years ago that I received, what was then, a record number of dislikes. I now wear that badge proudly. Every single word I wrote has come true.

Peace brother. :peace:

Jg :D

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 09:12 
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Username Protected wrote:
How old does an airplane have to be to be considered an antique? What are the other considerations that are attributes of an antique?


Normally, the definition of an antique is over 100 years old. Vintage is over 50 years old. So, rather few airplanes are true antiques, if we use the definition as they use it in furniture and design.

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