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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 09:03 
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Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!


Dear Robbie,
First off, welcome! How can we help you on the road to being a pilot? People your age will keep GA alive, I promise! I often hear pilots talk about expenses. Let me tell you my story. I got my license by charging the expense to a gas card. The bill got so large that guys in suits came to my house. It's all long paid off. (Not my fault they did not have a credit limit on the card!) :eek:
Rented for a while but fell into a co-ownership deal on my 1974 Cherokee. The note was almost paid off (Thanks First National of Clinton!), when my partner called and said he was selling his half. So, I called the Bank back and bought the other half! Meanwhile, I was living in a tiny 1300 square foot house. Many of the people here have the same story. You have to want it bad, but it is doable.
Fly more,
Ralph


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 09:33 
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Joined: 01/24/19
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Location: Birmingham
Aircraft: Vans RV-6; Archer II
Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!


Just to build off a couple of things Ralph said, there are some great opportunities to fly that don’t cost a fortune. I learned to fly in a local flying club that had a $1000 initiation fee, $100/mo fixed costs and $100/hr wet rates. They are still only about $125/hr, which means you can get your ppl for under $7500. I also bought the first half of a plane I owned not that long ago for $35k. There are lots of great fractional arrangements out there (and, as I stated in my earlier post, I think a larger scale version of that would be great for ga even if it was a bad financial investment for the backers), that can help ease the financial burden as well as the general burden of being a first time aircraft caretaker. Last, if you’re on the fence and anywhere close to Alabama, I’ll take you up in the rv and I can basically guarantee you’ll be hooked.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 12:16 
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Thanks for the kind words and support!

From my perspective, the cost on getting my license would be the easy/trivial part. I keep getting stuck on the, "what do I do now that I got my license?" part. Mostly because my use case would be cross country trips with my family of 3, where I would use an airplane for 3-7 days at a time which kind of rules out renting. Building an airplane sounds fun (part of the reason I joined was to follow Dave's EVO build) but I don't have time with an 11 month old right now. That said, I never considered fractional ownership... That might be a good fit and get me (and other people in my generation) in the door! I will look into that more!

Sorry for the thread hijack!


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 13:16 
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Joined: 05/11/10
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Location: Indiana
Aircraft: Cessna 185, RV-7
Username Protected wrote:
Thanks for the kind words and support!

From my perspective, the cost on getting my license would be the easy/trivial part. I keep getting stuck on the, "what do I do now that I got my license?" part. Mostly because my use case would be cross country trips with my family of 3, where I would use an airplane for 3-7 days at a time which kind of rules out renting. Building an airplane sounds fun (part of the reason I joined was to follow Dave's EVO build) but I don't have time with an 11 month old right now. That said, I never considered fractional ownership... That might be a good fit and get me (and other people in my generation) in the door! I will look into that more!

Sorry for the thread hijack!

Renting for long trips is often doable. I used to belong to a club that had mostly traveling airplanes. They charged a minimum per day (two hours? three?), and you had to book pretty far in advance, but it was still a good option. It feels like wasted money to buy two or three hours of Hobbs time for an airplane sitting on the ground, but my hangar rent is equivalent to about 4 hours’ rental each and every month.

When it comes to antiques, there are a couple of sub-types. There are the Cubs, which anyone can work on, and the Stinson Reliants, Howards, and Wacos, which require a special breed of mechanic. It’s hard enough to find a competent Skywagon mechanic around here. That keeps me out of antiques, much as I’d love a Howard.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 13:43 
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Joined: 11/30/17
Posts: 1284
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Location: KARR
Aircraft: J3, Twin Commander
Finding yourself in a basement of a house at the end of some lonely dark road in a state far from home looking at shelves full of dusty parts that might be the ones you need for a long orphaned engine.

Floating over fields you can smell inside a collection of wood, fabric and metal pieced together long before anyone had a television in their home.

Playing historian to soak up what you can from a receding pool of knowledge before it is all gone.

Opening a hangar door and walking into the odor of butyrate dope, oil, and old wood.

Pulling a propeller through the compression of a cylinder with your arm.

Sounds that only come from a 5 cylinder radial.

Antique airplanes have value.

There is a rare dedication required to fully appreciate it.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 06 Aug 2022, 08:58 
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As aircraft get older it gets harder and harder to fing a mechanic that will work on them. one mistake and the A&P can lose his livehood. So while someone may want to have an antique it is a real pain to keep them flying.

one solution is to be able to put them in an experimental mode so anyone can work on them. the experimental world is going very well because of the flexibility allowed on keeping them flying. FYI they allow this in Sweden. I have an acquaintence who has a Seabee that has put his into experimental. My Seabee is getting harder and harder to keep up and many time the decision is between keeping it legal with antique salvaged parts or making it safe with new parts. also many of the new equipment like electronic ignitions are not available.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 06 Aug 2022, 18:29 
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Joined: 01/24/19
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Location: Birmingham
Aircraft: Vans RV-6; Archer II
Username Protected wrote:
Thanks for the kind words and support!

From my perspective, the cost on getting my license would be the easy/trivial part. I keep getting stuck on the, "what do I do now that I got my license?" part. Mostly because my use case would be cross country trips with my family of 3, where I would use an airplane for 3-7 days at a time which kind of rules out renting. Building an airplane sounds fun (part of the reason I joined was to follow Dave's EVO build) but I don't have time with an 11 month old right now. That said, I never considered fractional ownership... That might be a good fit and get me (and other people in my generation) in the door! I will look into that more!

Sorry for the thread hijack!


A fractional type agreement (especially on an experimental) would be ideal for this in most circumstances. Our RV is around $10k to turn the key factoring in insurance, hangar, annual, databases, etc. (no note). We only split that two ways but we could have 4-5 partners if we wanted without any real scheduling issues. We then put aside $37hr dry. We then factor 8-8.5gph block and could run non ethanol mogas although we don’t (thunderbolt o360 with airflow performance fuel injection). It’s about as economical as it gets for 2-600mi trips. We average well north of 20mpg and it’s always cheaper than commercial.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 07 Aug 2022, 14:54 
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Joined: 09/09/14
Posts: 776
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Location: Grove Airport, Camas WA
Aircraft: Cub, Stearman
I love older airplanes. If you gave me the choice between flying your North American P-51D and your Laird Super Solution, there wouldn't be a moment's hesitation.

My 1942 Stearman is the newest plane I've ever owned. My goal is to own an SF260 for travel and fun, and C-3B for everything else. I particularly like Walter Bowe's airplane and wish I had bought it when I could have. It's the oldest United AIrlines Airplane still airworthy.

The biggest danger with these older airplanes is that they get donated to flying or non-flying museums. Even flying museums are a problem, because when the founder dies and their money runs out, the airplane never flies again. Regardless, once a 501-3(c) get their hands on an airplane the rest of us are done with it forever, it's effectively off the market. (Almost always)

More than anything, I'd love to fly a HIsso-powered J-1.


Last edited on 07 Aug 2022, 14:58, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 07 Aug 2022, 14:57 
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Joined: 09/09/14
Posts: 776
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Location: Grove Airport, Camas WA
Aircraft: Cub, Stearman
Username Protected wrote:
Thanks for the kind words and support!

From my perspective, the cost on getting my license would be the easy/trivial part. I keep getting stuck on the, "what do I do now that I got my license?" part. Mostly because my use case would be cross country trips with my family of 3, where I would use an airplane for 3-7 days at a time which kind of rules out renting. Building an airplane sounds fun (part of the reason I joined was to follow Dave's EVO build) but I don't have time with an 11 month old right now. That said, I never considered fractional ownership... That might be a good fit and get me (and other people in my generation) in the door! I will look into that more!

Sorry for the thread hijack!


You need a 4-way Cub or Champ partnership, Robbie, with a local CFI capable of teaching you how to fly the rag & tube taildragger.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 16:04 
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Joined: 06/10/16
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Location: KCVO
Aircraft: M20K/262
Username Protected wrote:
As aircraft get older it gets harder and harder to fing a mechanic that will work on them. one mistake and the A&P can lose his livehood. So while someone may want to have an antique it is a real pain to keep them flying.

one solution is to be able to put them in an experimental mode so anyone can work on them. the experimental world is going very well because of the flexibility allowed on keeping them flying. FYI they allow this in Sweden. I have an acquaintence who has a Seabee that has put his into experimental. My Seabee is getting harder and harder to keep up and many time the decision is between keeping it legal with antique salvaged parts or making it safe with new parts. also many of the new equipment like electronic ignitions are not available.


If only the FAA would see fit to allow an owner-maintained category like Canada has it would provide a path forward. Or, return to allowing previously certified airframes to move to an unrestricted Experimental registration. Neither seem likely to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 16:17 
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Username Protected wrote:
As aircraft get older it gets harder and harder to fing a mechanic that will work on them. one mistake and the A&P can lose his livehood. So while someone may want to have an antique it is a real pain to keep them flying.

one solution is to be able to put them in an experimental mode so anyone can work on them. the experimental world is going very well because of the flexibility allowed on keeping them flying. FYI they allow this in Sweden. I have an acquaintence who has a Seabee that has put his into experimental. My Seabee is getting harder and harder to keep up and many time the decision is between keeping it legal with antique salvaged parts or making it safe with new parts. also many of the new equipment like electronic ignitions are not available.


I can't figure out why they won't allow a path to experimental for older certified airframes.
It would keep old planes alive if they instituted a rule that say 50+ yr old planes (or 75 etc) can be "converted" to experimental to allow people to maintain them themselves since mechanics are less and less happy to work on old aircraft (and vehicles etc).

It just doesn't make any sense to me that I can work on an IO550 if it's in a RV, but not if it's in a beechcraft. Or that it's legal to install a not TSO autopilot in an RV that flies in the same sky as the beech that we aren't allowed to touch. One can argue that the builders have a deeper knowledge of their aircraft and have therefore earned the right to work on them, but in todays environment of quick build kits etc that's really not necessarily the case anymore.

I see some sort of path to owner maintenance being the only way old aircraft continue to fly long term.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 16:53 
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Location: Peachtree City GA / Stoke-On-Trent UK
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Hi Robbie,

You CAN afford an airplane. Anyone who is working a decent job can afford an airplane. You might mean that you can't afford a NEW airplane but that's no matter, very few people have ever been able to afford a new one.

I bought my first plane when I was in college, a 65HP ercoupe. It wasn't much of a plane but it was mine. The debonair I have now costs me less that the pickup trucks my neighbors are driving. My hangar neighbors include an electrician, a guy who pumps septic tanks, and a retired school teacher. None of us are wealthy but we work hard and live frugally in other ways.

ANYONE can afford an airplane. You just have to put your mind to it.
To get ready for that day, I'd suggest getting on the local hangar wait lists now. It might take years to get one.

Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 17:33 
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Joined: 01/28/13
Posts: 6037
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Location: Indiana
Aircraft: C195, D17S, M20TN
Username Protected wrote:
I love older airplanes. If you gave me the choice between flying your North American P-51D and your Laird Super Solution, there wouldn't be a moment's hesitation.

My 1942 Stearman is the newest plane I've ever owned. My goal is to own an SF260 for travel and fun, and C-3B for everything else. I particularly like Walter Bowe's airplane and wish I had bought it when I could have. It's the oldest United AIrlines Airplane still airworthy.

The biggest danger with these older airplanes is that they get donated to flying or non-flying museums. Even flying museums are a problem, because when the founder dies and their money runs out, the airplane never flies again. Regardless, once a 501-3(c) get their hands on an airplane the rest of us are done with it forever, it's effectively off the market. (Almost always)

More than anything, I'd love to fly a HIsso-powered J-1.


Far reaching statements are hard to prove or disprove. Story: Our museum here in Evansville recently purchased a P-47 that was built here in the local Republic plant. The museum we bought it from was perhaps "tight" during Covid in maintaining what they had. Sold this to tide them over. If a private owner had been looking, searching, begging every contact any involved in the search had, like we were at that time in 2020, my guess is any serious buyer could have purchased almost any WWII bird you wanted to. Almost, not a specific one but the type. We wanted a P47 built at our Republic plant. It is perhaps one of two that can fly today.

Flying or not flying is another can of worms. Insurance, insurance & insurance. Then qualified pilot(s), mechanics etc. make flying a legendary piece hard for the average museum. Not all museums are started by significant supporters. Government is another owner. Flying the P47 currently is not within our capability, sadly..

Either way it takes a certain size operation (# of planes), knowledge base and $$money to own much less own and operate a cadre of WWII aircraft. Gosh it takes donated time from pilots, mechanics, museum docents, mx, support etc to keep the buildings open and exhibits fresh and growing.

Put your own organization together if it's important to you and buy & feed a fleet. Please don't throw darts at the only semi-permanent organizations that are maintaining these pieces of our heritage is not productive for that cause.

Thanks to all that support this unique opportunity to keep history alive for so many young people each year. It is appreciated deeply. Deeply.

_________________
Chuck
KEVV


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 19:34 
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Location: Tulsa, Ok
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Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!



Would LOVE to find a Deb like your current whip!!!!
_________________
I don't have a problem with anger, I have a problem with idiots.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 08 Aug 2022, 21:28 
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Joined: 03/24/19
Posts: 1231
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Location: Ontario, Canada
Aircraft: Glasair Sportsman
A couple of thoughts...

A previous poster made reference to the Canadian Special Certificate of Airworthiness - Owner Maintenance. This can be a power tool in terms of affordable ownership. It does, however, come with the burden of being fully responsible for the maintenance of the aircraft. Many if not most approved shops won't touch an O-M airplane. Of course the other side of this coin is that one can't fly to the USA in an O-M airplane.

The value of older rag n tube airplanes in O-M category is all over the map so it's hard to say whether this airworthiness category has a positive or negative effect on the value of an old classic.

One other thought... The shared ownership model is of very high value to most who are able to be even-tempered enough to tolerate aircraft partners. One model which works is two or more owners getting together to "pool" their aircraft. One person has a "low and slow" Cub or Champ, another owner has a "go fast" amateur-built, maybe the third person has a heavy hauler. Each of them owns the aircraft but all three agree to a non-capital partnership arrangement where all three owners are able to use all three airplanes as their mission suits. I've actually been considering just such an arrangement as I don't want to put my airplane on floats but I do want access to a more classic floatplane.


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