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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 09:15 
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Joined: 10/09/17
Posts: 430
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Company: Cherokee Medical Clinic
Location: East Tennessee
Aircraft: V35, others
All good. I was recently in Oxford picking up some well heeled and slightly pickled Alumni, and thought of you. Be well. :bud:


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 10:10 
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Joined: 08/13/10
Posts: 1156
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Aircraft: Piper Cherokee 180
Hi all,
Be careful not to let perceptions become reality. GA is something older people will do because they have the time and money to do so. I can throw a rock and hit my maintenance shop. I made an appointment last year for my annual, recently completed. They have three A&P working fulltime and looking for more. My Cherokee is a 1974.

Perspective. I drive a beloved 1986 Alfa Romeo Spider. I currently have a fuel line leak. There are, so far, no mechanics to do the work. My choices are to sell it or buy some jacks and do the work myself.
Fly more,
Ralph
PS, I am seriously considering switching to mogas. It's 7.61 at the FBO today, which is down some...


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 11:38 
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Joined: 06/06/12
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Company: FlightRepublic
Location: Bee Cave, TX
Aircraft: DA40, C182
^^^ This ^^^
Finding someone to even do simple repairs on an older car is very hard. If there’s no computer to plug into, the chances are you’re going to have to work on it yourself.
The problem is most auto mechanics are no longer trained to diagnose problems on mechanical systems.
As a result most auto repair shops regard the time spent working on older cars uneconomical, even if it pays at the same rate they charge their other customers.
We’re lucky in aviation to have skilled mechanics that understand how mechanical systems and carburetors work and can rebuild them if necessary.
FWIW, I used to work at an auto-repair shop on pre-OBD computerized cars during my Summer vacations, thirty years ago.

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Antoni Deighton
contactlink.to/antoni.deighton


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 02 Aug 2022, 12:20 
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Joined: 10/18/11
Posts: 1026
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Aircraft: Seabee Aerostar 700
besides aircraft, I am a steam engine and old tractor lover. wonderful old machines and many are being lovingly restored.

Perhaps we should take a page from their book and see what we can do to make these old aircraft more accessible to the average person. the steam engine world does not have a FAA that requires an A & P to work on them.

can we put the old aircraft into some kind of "experimental category" so that the average guy can keep them operating. I know that can be more dangerous but I own a Seabee but keeping it operating is a real problem as many times the decision is between keeping it safe or keeping it legal with old parts. very few A&P want to work on them as a problem with it will jeopardize their income. It is amazing how a community will grow up around an old steam engine type and keep it safe and operating.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 19:52 
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Joined: 09/02/09
Posts: 8415
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Company: OAA
Location: Oklahoma City - PWA/Calistoga KSTS
Aircraft: UMF3, UBF 2, P180 II
Apparently no one has any more of a clue than I do.

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Travel Air B4000, Waco UBF2,UMF3,YMF5, UPF7,YKS 6, Fairchild 24W, Cessna 120
Never enough!


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 20:42 
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Joined: 07/22/14
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Company: Mountain Airframe LLC
Location: Mena, Arkansas
Username Protected wrote:
Apparently no one has any more of a clue than I do.

You aren’t taking anything with you when you cross over to the other side. I believe I’m accurate, based on what you’ve posted here over the years, that your children are self driven and successful. They don’t need the inheritance.

I suggest using the harvested fruits of your efforts, to enjoy every bit of time your earth suit allows you on this spaceship called earth. If that includes old airplanes, I applaud you just a bit more :D


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 21:40 
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Joined: 01/24/19
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Location: Birmingham
Aircraft: Vans RV-6; Archer II
I’m hoping to be a value buyer on a staggerwing or 195 sometime in the next 10 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 21:54 
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Joined: 10/05/11
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Company: Power/mation
Location: Milwaukee, WI (KMKE)
Aircraft: 1963 Debonair B33
Username Protected wrote:
I’m hoping to be a value buyer on a staggerwing or 195 sometime in the next 10 years.


You and me both, bro!

Seriously, though, the market will adjust as it always does. The only risk is when the planes are left to rot. Then nobody wins.

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 22:36 
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Joined: 03/24/19
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Location: Ontario, Canada
Aircraft: Glasair Sportsman
To add a slightly more positive spin to this discussion...

My nephew is 35 and is a licensed automotive mechanic. He is getting very tired of fixing the cr@p that ALL of our automobile manufacturers are churning out today. I admire him as a real "do it yourselfer".

Sure, he bought a brand new Kubota tractor to remove snow from his lane (he lives in real snow country). Then he designed and fabricated a very well-equipped and comfortable cab to keep his backside warm and dry while he does battle with Old Man Winter. Gotta like a younger guy who will take on a project like that.

Now for the really uplifting part of this story. My nephew is into old tractors. Case tractors to be exact. He has several of them that I know of. If my tally is correct he has one "survivor", one "pristine like it just came from the factory" and one "looks kinda original but is wicked good at the tractor pulls" tractor.

But that's not enough.

Nope, you can't haul your vintage Case tractors to the fair behind a brand new pickup truck. That won't do. So he bought a period-correct float that needed a LOT of work. Then he bought a period-correct White highway tractor which needed even more work. He has restored both of them to pristine condition. I'm told that if he's headed to the fair you can track him two ways. NOT via a cell phone - he doesn't have one of those. Nope, look for the stream of black coal smoke from the shiny chrome pipe on that White, or listen for the grinding of its square-cut transmission gears as he negotiates the steep hills where he lives. Tune in those basic senses of eyes and ears and you'll know when he's comin' to your town!

In case you can't tell, I have a huge amount of respect for my nephew. Mostly because he would give you the shirt off his back without thinking twice, but also because he just "gets" why simple mechanical things are things of enduring beauty and utility.

Yeah, the next time I go to see him I'm going to teach him how to make that White tranny shift with a snick-snick-snick. Either that or we'll be picking tranny pieces off the road and muttering about the wonders of syncromesh transmissions! :bugeye: :D


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 03 Aug 2022, 23:25 
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Joined: 10/07/10
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Username Protected wrote:
In case you can't tell, I have a huge amount of respect for my nephew.

Sounds like he deserves it. I'm just jealous that he doesn't have a cell phone.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 04 Aug 2022, 21:00 
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Joined: 06/28/22
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Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 05:28 
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Joined: 01/05/11
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Aircraft: 1969 Aerostar 600,
Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!

If you believe you can’t afford an airplane you sure as hell aren’t going to be able to operate and properly maintain one. That’s a certainty. No debate required.


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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 06:55 
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Joined: 02/21/11
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Location: Northside of Atlanta
Aircraft: RV-6 & RV-10
Username Protected wrote:
I’m hoping to be a value buyer on a staggerwing or 195 sometime in the next 10 years.


You and me both, bro!

Seriously, though, the market will adjust as it always does. The only risk is when the planes are left to rot. Then nobody wins.


Rotting planes are a real risk when the owner dies. By the time the spouse or executor acts on the airplane, many have been sitting for months or years, and have gone way downhill.

I've told SWMBO that if something happens to me, she needs to immediately get a couple of my aviation friends (who I've specified) to help her value and sell the airplanes ASAP, and fly them occasionally in the interim to avoid a significant loss of value (and money drain with maintenance, insurance, and hangar fees).

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 07:20 
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Joined: 10/05/11
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Company: Power/mation
Location: Milwaukee, WI (KMKE)
Aircraft: 1963 Debonair B33
Username Protected wrote:
If you believe you can’t afford an airplane you sure as hell aren’t going to be able to operate and properly maintain one. That’s a certainty. No debate required.


I see your point, but that is a bit extreme. If we agree that the last F33A has the same direct and indirect costs as the first 33 (or same comparison of the last V35B and first 35), there is still the fact that one has a much larger cost of capital than the other.

I could afford a financed $50k Deb and upgrades over time while flying 100-200 hours per year. I could not afford a $250k F33A.

To stay on topic, any antique airplane is going to need appropriate care amd feeding. I could probably pick 2 airplanes from the 1930s where I could make it work for one, but not be able to afford the other.

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 Post subject: Re: Antique Airplane Values
PostPosted: 05 Aug 2022, 08:42 
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Joined: 01/24/19
Posts: 398
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Location: Birmingham
Aircraft: Vans RV-6; Archer II
Username Protected wrote:
Millennial checking in (and first post in BT!)!

From my perspective I see GA and airplane values in general going down sharply in the next 5-10 years as the baby boomer generation starts to age and can no longer fly. When they start selling in large numbers, I don’t know who will be able to afford those airplanes so the prices will have to drop.

I’m not a pilot (but really want to be!) and would love to own an airplane, but I just can’t fathom being able to ever afford one comfortably… and my income is nearly 3X the average millennial! The only people in my generation that I see making enough money are Tik Tok stars and social media influencers haha!

That said, if I’m right and the market falls out, I may be able to afford an airplane after all!


I think that there are several factors that could impact this.

First, looking around me at the airport, being middle aged certainly puts me on the younger age of our spectrum. I do believe you will see fewer ga pilots.

Second, as others have pointed out, planes don’t tend to turn over like say houses, they tend to sit longer, be more affected, and they are more sensitive (and arguably more difficult to fix) after they have sat. That leads me to think that at least a portion of the excess supply is going to be lost/consumed.

Third, as current owners are seeing, opex is rising. I think this will also contribute to more sitting, deterioration and loss in the current (aging) fleet.

I certainly hope that we see more younger pilots and we do what is possible to reduce barriers to entry in aviation. I think the new mosaic rules have a real chance to make an impact there. If we can get something like a sling 4 as a factory lsa and get costs down (maybe through some kind of large plane sharing cooperative type system), we could really start open aviation back up to the use case and acceptance it seemed to enjoy in the 60s and 70s.


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