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28 Mar 2024, 13:34 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 10:48 
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Joined: 09/02/09
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I just sold half my plane to an entrepreneur who values his time, flexibility and ease of travel. Didn’t want to fly the airlines anymore and can afford not to. Just like me.

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 11:00 
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I am in the turbine engine aftermarket for business and GA and we have seen supplies of used engines to be much more scarce. I predict a slow reversal with the airline mask mandate lifted and fuel prices on the rise. There are lots of factors in play, but those two will drive a significant shift in my opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 11:10 
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Username Protected wrote:
I just sold half my plane to an entrepreneur who values his time, flexibility and ease of travel. Didn’t want to fly the airlines anymore and can afford not to. Just like me.


:D Well done Tony. Helps that prices are so high right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 11:10 
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Joined: 11/08/12
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Covid both changed the perception of private aviation and caused folks to explore options.


This is the key point. Private aviation is great for a lot of things, but non-business big-city to big-city isn't it. Wealthy people going from NY to Florida were really pretty well served by first class airline travel. Covid changed that.

Plenty of people who could easily pay $50,000 for a Citation trip but chose to pay $5000 for a 737 trip have moved to the citation. That's probably a stable and fundamental change in the market that will take a generation of airframe, pilot and infrastructure production to support.


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 11:24 
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Location: Tulsa, OK - KRVS
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We will be entering a fairly nasty recession later this year or early 2023. The Fed does not want to be seen as bailing out the rich people (more QE to support the stock market) while the middle and lower classes are being hammered by inflation.

I believe the "Fed Put" is much lower than it has been in the past (around 3,000 for the S&P).

The layoffs have already started at some of the dodgier companies (Netflix let some people go today).

I agree that the disaster that was PPP and other COVID relief bills were just giveaways and there is/was a metric ton of cash sloshing around. But I think a lot of it was invested and those investments are going to sour. Plus, the cost of running a jet has gone up an insane amount in a very short time.

It will be interesting to watch.


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 12:24 
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A friend was planning on a 500k remodel on their house, contractor came back and said the price is now 750k. Why? Inflation! Needless to say they pumped the breaks... will either find a new contractor or just wait. Everything will come back to earth, now is not the time to buy an airplane.

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 12:24 
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Username Protected wrote:

The layoffs have already started at some of the dodgier companies (Netflix let some people go today).


Netflix should lay off all of their people based on lack of content!

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 12:31 
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Username Protected wrote:

The layoffs have already started at some of the dodgier companies (Netflix let some people go today).


Netflix should lay off all of their people based on lack of content!

Yep. They only have 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows.
Nothing to watch there...
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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 12:47 
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Username Protected wrote:

Netflix should lay off all of their people based on lack of content!

Yep. They only have 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows.
Nothing to watch there...


Hard to believe that I used to schedule my life around "Mork and Mindy" (Yes, I admit it).

Amazing time to be alive.

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 13:08 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Username Protected wrote:


Yep. They only have 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows.
Nothing to watch there...


Sorry, I should have said lack of NEW content. Other than Ozark it seems that most of the 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows are the same ones they've had for years.

I have also noticed that they do a horrible job of presenting their new content. I assume this is because they want people to dig for it and watch something else they find along the way?

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 14:44 
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A friend was planning on a 500k remodel on their house, contractor came back and said the price is now 750k. Why? Inflation! Needless to say they pumped the breaks... will either find a new contractor or just wait. Everything will come back to earth, now is not the time to buy an airplane.


We were planning on doing some major renovation of our modest farmhouse. 3 years ago we did all the planning and architecture. Then this hit and we decided to wait because your house is currently worth double what we paid for it. Now when this market corrects I figure it will adjust and we’re ok with that at this point, as we were planning on about $200k. Now the materials have nearly doubled the estimate and by the time we’re done (if it would get finished with the supply chain issues) our tax assessor would likely have a field day as our house is already small by the community average. I assume once the taxes hit they won’t go down (here in Illinois) so we’ll save the money. Unfortunately we were going to shop for a plane with the idea of a turbine in 5-6 years and that has been shot to hell if prices stay the same too. Oh well. I know this will adjust itself some eventually but I don’t know how soon.


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 15:53 
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Username Protected wrote:
Sorry, I should have said lack of NEW content. Other than Ozark it seems that most of the 3800 movies and 1800 TV shows are the same ones they've had for years.

Stranger Things Season 4 is out next week!


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 18 May 2022, 16:18 
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Joined: 06/02/10
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Location: West Palm Beach - F45
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Username Protected wrote:
A friend was planning on a 500k remodel on their house, contractor came back and said the price is now 750k. Why? Inflation! Needless to say they pumped the breaks... will either find a new contractor or just wait. Everything will come back to earth, now is not the time to buy an airplane.


We were planning on doing some major renovation of our modest farmhouse. 3 years ago we did all the planning and architecture. Then this hit and we decided to wait because your house is currently worth double what we paid for it. Now when this market corrects I figure it will adjust and we’re ok with that at this point, as we were planning on about $200k. Now the materials have nearly doubled the estimate and by the time we’re done (if it would get finished with the supply chain issues) our tax assessor would likely have a field day as our house is already small by the community average. I assume once the taxes hit they won’t go down (here in Illinois) so we’ll save the money. Unfortunately we were going to shop for a plane with the idea of a turbine in 5-6 years and that has been shot to hell if prices stay the same too. Oh well. I know this will adjust itself some eventually but I don’t know how soon.


Florida has a "Save our Homes" law on the books that restricts property tax increases to 3% year precisely because of the current situation. During a previous run up, people were getting taxed right out of their homes because of runaway property value increases.

It works pretty well, there is some amount of in-state portability, but even if values fall off a cliff, chances are the state will still get their 3% because your home value has risen above that minimal baseline.

Best,
Rich

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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 12:40 
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An article from last month. Add to that what the markets are doing, and I'd say crazy pricing is on the way out. At least of the high variety....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-04-26/


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 Post subject: Re: Can used turbine aircraft prices get any crazier?
PostPosted: 20 May 2022, 11:55 
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Joined: 10/31/11
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Company: B777, 767, 757, 727, MD11, S80
Location: Colorado Springs
Aircraft: Thrush S2R, AC500B,
Username Protected wrote:
Then I think about how it has grown my reach and shrunk the world around me and I quickly come to my senses. Ain't no way I'm selling my turbine.


Agree, Chip can bring a buyer with $2m over market for my plane and I wouldn’t part ways, wouldn’t even consider it

Good luck out there


In my case if you bring a buyer for 2M over market you own it, then I can replace it at market price. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE

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