23 Apr 2024, 19:39 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 16:07 |
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Joined: 09/11/09 Posts: 5300 Post Likes: +4213 Company: Looking Location: Tulsa, Ok
Aircraft: Baron/Bonanza
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Username Protected wrote: They say that a country/culture that changes the cost of a critical necessity changes the world to their favor.
Agriculture changed the world by making food cheap/plentiful. The Romans made transportation easy (roads). Later trains, cars & aviation. Gunpowder for war. The printing press for information. Later, the internet did the same. The telegraph for communications, later the phone. The societies that conquered the oceans with ships that could navigate reliably and sail in any winds.
The next big jump will be energy, and the divorce from extracted energy (IE petro). Game changer, period, dot.
The first country that makes economic fusion power a thing is going to win biggly.
The step after that is reliable transport to space and the outer planets. There are riches beyond the dreams of avarice lurking in the asteroid belt.
Hop on the train, or get left behind. Look to the stars, not at your feet. You make it sound like some of us scruffy looking nerf-herders may stand a chance......at least if there's smuggling to be had......
_________________ I don't have a problem with anger, I have a problem with idiots.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 16:08 |
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Joined: 03/28/17 Posts: 6692 Post Likes: +8031 Location: N. California
Aircraft: C-182
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Username Protected wrote: What amazes me in this whole thing - why somewhere along the line they didn't stop by, and instead spending on those millions of $ and thousands of hours trying to design, test and failproof the unfolding process, called Musk and ask 'can we get wider first stage fairing'?
I'm not talking deploy it fully unfolded, but at least the main mirror? Looking at the origami video it feels like even small increase in volume of the first stage could significantly reduce complexity From a pilot's base of knowledge, widening the payload means more drag, and more drag requires a lot more thrust to maintain speed to attain escape velocity, so this was a compromise in my opinion.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 16:10 |
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Joined: 06/02/10 Posts: 7259 Post Likes: +4525 Company: Inscrutable Fasteners, LLC Location: West Palm Beach - F45
Aircraft: Planeless
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Username Protected wrote: They say that a country/culture that changes the cost of a critical necessity changes the world to their favor.
Agriculture changed the world by making food cheap/plentiful. The Romans made transportation easy (roads). Later trains, cars & aviation. Gunpowder for war. The printing press for information. Later, the internet did the same. The telegraph for communications, later the phone. The societies that conquered the oceans with ships that could navigate reliably and sail in any winds.
The next big jump will be energy, and the divorce from extracted energy (IE petro). Game changer, period, dot.
The first country that makes economic fusion power a thing is going to win biggly.
The step after that is reliable transport to space and the outer planets. There are riches beyond the dreams of avarice lurking in the asteroid belt.
Hop on the train, or get left behind. Look to the stars, not at your feet. You make it sound like some of us scruffy looking nerf-herders may stand a chance......at least if there's smuggling to be had......
For Beltalowda!
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 16:12 |
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Joined: 07/19/10 Posts: 2728 Post Likes: +1168 Company: Keller Williams Realty Location: Madison, WI (91C)
Aircraft: 1967 Bonanza V35
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Username Protected wrote: From a pilot's base of knowledge, widening the payload means more drag, and more drag requires a lot more thrust to maintain speed to attain escape velocity, so this was a compromise in my opinion. I get that, but I'm wondering - would it really be that bad? Drag matters less and less with every foot above the ground. And less complex payload would be lighter.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 17:14 |
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Joined: 12/04/10 Posts: 363 Post Likes: +302 Location: KPTK Pontiac, MI
Aircraft: P35, IO-520
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Username Protected wrote: What amazes me in this whole thing - why somewhere along the line they didn't stop by, and instead spending on those millions of $ and thousands of hours trying to design, test and failproof the unfolding process, called Musk and ask 'can we get wider first stage fairing'?
I'm not talking deploy it fully unfolded, but at least the main mirror? Looking at the origami video it feels like even small increase in volume of the first stage could significantly reduce complexity From a pilot's base of knowledge, widening the payload means more drag, and more drag requires a lot more thrust to maintain speed to attain escape velocity, so this was a compromise in my opinion. I’m thinking it was much more basic. What launch platforms were available when they spec’d this project out? I don’t think Musk was in the picture yet. Definitely not with anything with a reliability track record. I’d bet that reliability was an overriding concern with this much on the line.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 17:17 |
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Joined: 02/01/21 Posts: 206 Post Likes: +149
Aircraft: A55 President 600
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Username Protected wrote: [ Definitely not with anything with a reliability track record. I’d bet that reliability was an overriding concern with this much on the line. You’re dead on. Make the payload fit the vehicle, including the fairing. Any changes are major changes.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 21:06 |
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Joined: 06/15/12 Posts: 801 Post Likes: +896 Location: KIWA
Aircraft: Debonair 35 - B33
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The day of two to three decade timetables to bring new technology platforms online for the USA are OVER! The USA better stop the Chinese espionage of our technology immediately and we best get serious about quickly facing the Chinese threat. Start by incentivizing moving manufacturing to South of the USA border and away from China. Not easy, takes time? Start it now. Labor costs are cheaper south of the border now anyways.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 21:31 |
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Joined: 03/28/17 Posts: 6692 Post Likes: +8031 Location: N. California
Aircraft: C-182
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Username Protected wrote: JWST was designed in 1996 with a projected launch date of 2007.
To put that into perspective, in 1996 Elon Musk was getting turned down for a job at Netscape. SpaceX began in 2002 and didn't reach orbit until September of 2008, a year after JWST was scheduled to launch. At the time, the available launch vehicle was likely the Delta IV, which has a 5 meter payload fairing. While the Shuttle was still flying at the time, its payload bay was only 4.6 meters wide.
There was nothing bigger available. The James Web telescope was launched by an Ariane 5 rocket, first flown in 1996. I understand that the bidding was close , but the Ariane contract included free lifetime French fries. I had a flight a long time ago carrying a Hughes satellite from LAX to French Guiana for launch. A whole bunch of Hughes technicians went with us, and very interesting folks to talk to. Knowing nothing about satellite launching, I asked why we were taking it all the way down there, and as a lot of others know, it's easier to get into orbit from near the equator.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 21:42 |
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Joined: 02/01/21 Posts: 206 Post Likes: +149
Aircraft: A55 President 600
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Username Protected wrote: JWST was designed in 1996 with a projected launch date of 2007.
To put that into perspective, in 1996 Elon Musk was getting turned down for a job at Netscape. SpaceX began in 2002 and didn't reach orbit until September of 2008, a year after JWST was scheduled to launch. At the time, the available launch vehicle was likely the Delta IV, which has a 5 meter payload fairing. While the Shuttle was still flying at the time, its payload bay was only 4.6 meters wide.
There was nothing bigger available. I lost track of JWT. It was in the works when I got out of college if memory serves. I supported some of the instruments way back when, early 2000s, then heard nothing of it for more than a decade. If it ever crossed my mind at all I guess I assumed the program had been cancelled. I kind of wonder what they do about parts obsolescence for a [civilian] program that's covering 25+ years. You blow a component in some electronics module during transportation, test, etc. in that thing and you better hope you have a bunch still sitting in nitrogen bag somewhere or you're SOL. Think back to your electronics in 1995-2000. Very different world. In the systems I support these days we have operational lives that cover decades so figuring out what to do about electronics is a big deal and the customer has very deep pockets.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 21:47 |
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Joined: 02/01/21 Posts: 206 Post Likes: +149
Aircraft: A55 President 600
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Username Protected wrote: The day of two to three decade timetables to bring new technology platforms online for the USA are OVER! The USA better stop the Chinese espionage of our technology immediately and we best get serious about quickly facing the Chinese threat. Start by incentivizing moving manufacturing to South of the USA border and away from China. Not easy, takes time? Start it now. Labor costs are cheaper south of the border now anyways. It's rapidly getting to the point where the Chinese don't need to steal anything else. It's been remarkable watching their technology mature and their approach to developing new technologies mature as well. We're in big trouble and we're our own worst enemy. If we don't do more to bring microchip fabrication on shore we're done for. The token amount we have now isn't going to cut it. This is not a country whose hearts and minds we're going to win with open door policies. They're going to gut us, surpass us, and then crush us.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 22:21 |
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Joined: 07/19/18 Posts: 368 Post Likes: +154
Aircraft: On the hunt...
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Username Protected wrote: The day of two to three decade timetables to bring new technology platforms online for the USA are OVER! The USA better stop the Chinese espionage of our technology immediately and we best get serious about quickly facing the Chinese threat. Start by incentivizing moving manufacturing to South of the USA border and away from China. Not easy, takes time? Start it now. Labor costs are cheaper south of the border now anyways.
It's rapidly getting to the point where the Chinese don't need to steal anything else. It's been remarkable watching their technology mature and their approach to developing new technologies mature as well. We're in big trouble and we're our own worst enemy. If we don't do more to bring microchip fabrication on shore we're done for. The token amount we have now isn't going to cut it. This is not a country whose hearts and minds we're going to win with open door policies. They're going to gut us, surpass us, and then crush us.[/quote
The reason there is no Hughes Aircraft anymore is that during one of our "they'll become democratic capitalists just like us" brain failures a Hughes engineer was working on a satellite subcontract with the Chinese back around the turn of the century. The deal was for launching multiple satellites on the same launcher and the engineer was not authorized to talk about the inertial guidance and jet assemblies on the bus. Funny thing is that's the same bus technology that enables MIRVing warheads. When that came out Hughes was never, ever going to get another satellite contract. The end. Similar thing happened to Perkin-Elmer after they screwed up the grinding of Hubble's primary mirror. Poof, no more Perkin-Elmer in the NRO satellite biz.
And by the way, this idiocy is not about politics and I'll be happy to discuss that further with anybody who pipes up trying to say it is.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/p ... to%20China
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 07 Jan 2022, 23:11 |
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Joined: 02/01/21 Posts: 206 Post Likes: +149
Aircraft: A55 President 600
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Username Protected wrote: The reason there is no Hughes Aircraft anymore is that during one of our "they'll become democratic capitalists just like us" brain failures a Hughes engineer I remember reading about some highly competitive satellite dealings back in the 80s and 90s in Asia/SE Asia and people getting their hands slapped hard for it. Michael Leonard talks about this in his book "An American Combat Bird Dog Pilot: From the Battlefield of Vietnam and Beyond." As for China, people who are this naive live in a fantasy land insulated by total ignorance of the real world. I've been dealing with Chinese espionage since graduate school. Used to watch them bang away at the computers day and night trying to find a way in. I will say that most organizations have gotten a lot better about security, but that's largely because they've been required to do so. Non compliant security. No funding. But if we don't continue to push advancement in our own country the Chinese won't bother because we won't have anything worth stealing.
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Post subject: Re: James Web Telescope Posted: 08 Jan 2022, 00:55 |
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Joined: 01/06/08 Posts: 4701 Post Likes: +2705
Aircraft: B55 P2
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China is definitely advancing. They are at or near leading in super computers, quantum computers, high peak power lasers.
We should take very seriously their talk of getting someone back to the moon before the US does.
If were are not careful, in a few decades, China will once again be the center of the world, as it was for so much of world history. They are coming out of what was basically yet another inter-dynastic period.
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