On paper, maybe.

SpaceX is doing it in the real world.

Big difference.

Mike C.

Elon said it about his company: It’s a thousand times harder to develop the manufacturing and support infrastructure than it is to design the rocket. I think Jeff is feeling that right now.

Agreed
I mostly see Blue Origins in comparison with the posers like Virgin Galactic

I think properly managed Blue Origins could do very well, but so far they aren't and with the rumors of an ongoing talent drain they are probably doomed.

SpaceX will do well as long as Musk is around, but I suspect it will fail horribly when he leaves / dies.


On paper, maybe.

SpaceX is doing it in the real world.

Big difference.

Mike C.

I doubt it. He has already established the two most important things at each company: culture and team.

The culture at SpaceX consists of 3 simple principles from what I can tell:

1. Be audacious

Don't hold back, let's dream big even if challenging. Catching a Super Heavy with a tower? That's crazy talk but they are going to try, and if successful, it will be jaw dropping awesome.

2. Failure is an option

As long as you learn at each step. This is often the fastest way to get the result you want.

3. Economics matter

Think about the economics before you start design. That's why the Falcon 9 uses basically the same engine on first and second stage, and similarly for the Super Heavy and Starship. This is not how the space industry thinks generally.

Reusability encompasses all three principles since it is audacious, it fails at first, and it radically changes the economics.

Once that culture is set in motion, I think it will survive the loss of Musk at least for some time. Musk isn't doing it all himself.

Mike C.

I’m a huge Elon Musk fan . Not sure how well they will do without Elon at the helm . Blue Origins & Virgin Galactic just flew at really high flight level not that impressive to me.

I strongly disagree with this conjecture. Gwen Shotwell needs a better publicist; but that would probably drive Elon nuts.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/K1xWaua-nLI[/youtube]

No, she doesn't. Let Musk be the lightning rod and she can work in relative peace.

Mike C.

Elon seems to be one of the few founders that is willing to question any of the assumptions the mission is founded upon in the light of new information. He is willing to let his smart people come up with many solutions and evaluate them with every consideration looked at. I do not see any of the "we should do it that way because that is the way we have been doing it."

for instance his choice to use methane as a fuel has many advantages that at first glance seem to not make it the optimum fuel. but when you look at the total problem it comes out on top.

I would bet on him having a good solution.

whether it is a good place to invest money in is a far different question

If I wanted to go to Mars, he's the guy I'd want designing the rocket.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/PVeVJxfLLmM[/youtube]

They're getting closer. It still has a long way to go before 4-20 flies, but they're making progress at a furious pace. It'll be interesting to see how the first full stack flight goes.

The first liftoff of this monster will be an event to behold. 16 million pounds of thrust burning 45,000 lbs per second of fuel and oxidizer.

I expect it to go badly, this is unexplored territory for size, thrust, engine count, etc,
but I don't expect that to stop the program.

Mike C.

[quote="Mike Ciholas"]The first liftoff of this monster will be an event to behold. 16 million pounds of thrust ...
That's more than 2x Saturn V first stage.

Thinking about attending the first launch. Anyone familiar with the best viewing areas for Boca China?

For the size of that thing, maybe somewhere in New Mexico…