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28 Mar 2024, 13:35 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 19:42 
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This is a great thread. You can learn almost as much from those who are dead right as those who are dead on. Why, because the posts reflect the spread of aircraft owners opinions. Right or wrong, the opinions eventually define the market.

If there is one thing "wrong" with the thread is that the aircraft "market" is not one market. Chip has pointed this out several times. The TP's are one market, the jets another. The piston singles are a market and the twins another.

Piston twins are not "hot". I spent seven months in the market before I bought the Baron and almost nothing I even noticed has sold yet.

I'm not throwing sauce here. Most guys know full well which "market" they are referring to, but sometimes "us" readers don't. :woot:

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 20:44 
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Username Protected wrote:
This is a great thread. You can learn almost as much from those who are dead right as those who are dead on. Why, because the posts reflect the spread of aircraft owners opinions. Right or wrong, the opinions eventually define the market.

If there is one thing "wrong" with the thread is that the aircraft "market" is not one market. Chip has pointed this out several times. The TP's are one market, the jets another. The piston singles are a market and the twins another.

Piston twins are not "hot". I spent seven months in the market before I bought the Baron and almost nothing I even noticed has sold yet.

I'm not throwing sauce here. Most guys know full well which "market" they are referring to, but sometimes "us" readers don't. :woot:

Jg


We've all tried selling Aerostars.. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 02:20 
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Username Protected wrote:
I suspect that may be true for some lower end aircraft.

Especially anything stuck burning 100LL.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 09:17 
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Adam,

I related your A* adventures to someone not long ago. Certainly NOT to make fun of you but to show just how badly an aircraft can bite.

This is an interesting world we live in today. "Things" of much import and of little import change quickly. We watched many single engine pistons double in price within a period of months. A new year, hangar, fuel, insurance, maintenance bills are now going to come rolling in for airplanes that have no commercial use and won't replace the most basic of airline offerings. Add to that now, the "threat" of fuel shortages that, while there is no shortage, will almost certainly cause some knee jerk reactions in owners and buyers.

Add to that, most of the government funny money has dripped dry, which I feel is the most important factor.

This is going to be interesting. I hope this thread stays "interesting" and people keep opining and offering their "evidence" of where the market is heading, real or anecdotal.

"Taters are up, carrots is down." And the world just keeps being the same. :thumbup:

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 10:25 
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there is the old wisdom that the lowest cost aircraft you can buy is the one that is exactly in the condition you want with the equipment you want.
that is certainly true in the Aerostar world.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 13:04 
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Username Protected wrote:


"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.


Because of a much needed correction? No, that’s not how this works


Yes a correction was due, but on top of that is a historically high inflation rate eroding discretionary spending. So a typical GA recreational plane owner sees his discretionary income deflating and at the same time cost of ownership (maintenance, fuel) increasing.

And I think we're only at the beginning of serious economic problems., including rising interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation. For owners that have planes that were stretching the budget before, now will have budget busters.

To Mark's comment about a hot market, that's a business and commercial aviation market within GA where the airplanes are a tool that pay for themselves; far different than the family with a recreational airplane supported by the family budget with no write offs, who now may have to part with their planes that comprise the majority of planes at most airports. We'll see.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 13:08 
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Lots of talk about raising rates to get inflation under control. Less discussion on how the USA pays the interest on trillions in debt. I think these two opposing forces will temper rates as a result.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 13:30 
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Username Protected wrote:
Lots of talk about raising rates to get inflation under control. Less discussion on how the USA pays the interest on trillions in debt. I think these two opposing forces will temper rates as a result.


Yep. it has cost us a lot of money paying people to not work. And a high school economics student could have predicted what would happen when the government turned off the oil spigot, beyond the jobs lost in the industry. Practically everything we buy has a transportation cost in it directly related to fuel costs .


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 14:42 
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Username Protected wrote:
Lots of talk about raising rates to get inflation under control. Less discussion on how the USA pays the interest on trillions in debt. I think these two opposing forces will temper rates as a result.



Not to mention that the last thing the current administration wants is an interest rate induced slow-down going into mid-terms. Just don’t see anyone with Paul Volcker’s resolve, maturity or cajones on either side.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 14:58 
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This is not going to be a soft landing.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 15:10 
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This is not going to be a soft landing.



Indeed, only question is when and how loudly....


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2022, 21:53 
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Username Protected wrote:


"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.


I suspect that may be true for some lower end aircraft. 172's et al. But in general, I think the market remains white hot. Peope don't want to travel commerically and the amount of "new " aircraft is not enough to cover demand.

BWTFDIK?


Everything cycles of course, but while the TSA helped hit the go around button for GA, let’s be frank, the mask mandates are hitting the JATO button.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Jan 2022, 09:57 
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Bruce, the following is NOT directed at you.

"Issues" with airline travel are as varied as the people exposed to them. Masks are a total non-issue to me. What kind of limp ******* sissy can't "stand" a mask? Send me your shipping address and I'll send you a couple of pecans so you will have some nuts.

My issue is simply crowds of people and the FACT that many of them are contagious.

The next very legitimate fear is simply flight interruptions that are mostly no fault of the airlines themselves.

We are all in this together. I'm tire of covid, but I'm more tired of the whiners. :beechslap:

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Jan 2022, 09:58 
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Delete of duplicate.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Jan 2022, 11:22 
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Joined: 05/09/18
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Username Protected wrote:
We are all in this together. I'm tire of covid, but I'm more tired of the whiners. :beechslap:

Jg


Or those whining about the whiners. ;)

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