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28 Mar 2024, 09:41 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 00:50 
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Raising the interest rates will not put a dent in inflation. Unwinding the damage done by the government printing presses over the past few years will be a painful and lengthy process. Putting trillions of dollars of liquidity into the economy during a time when production of goods had slowed to a crawl was a recipe for economic pain. I doubt anyone has the huevos to do what is necessary at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 06:02 
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Rates will have to keep going up to curb the amount of inflation we have. 5% is cheap compared to what the future holds.

Aircraft values will start to decline in the near future and continue, I don’t see a leveling for old legacy piston aircraft.

Legacy aircraft price will stabilize, then they will begin to rise again. Why, because their numbers will continue to go down due to lack of care and maintenance driven by continued inflation that will not be going away anytime soon. New aircraft will continue to skyrocket in price and will be out of grasp for most people. Legacy aircraft will still be the alternative, however, due to diminishing numbers and stable if not increasing demand for the benefits flight provides, legacy aircraft will continue to rise in price. The best equipped best maintained legacy aircraft will continue to demand top dollar and still be one half to one third the cost of a comparable new aircraft providing the same mission.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 08:54 
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Username Protected wrote:
Aircraft values will start to decline in the near future and continue, I don’t see a leveling for old legacy piston aircraft.

Gerry, how low do you think they will go?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 09:25 
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
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Username Protected wrote:
Rates will have to keep going up to curb the amount of inflation we have. 5% is cheap compared to what the future holds.

Aircraft values will start to decline in the near future and continue, I don’t see a leveling for old legacy piston aircraft.

Legacy aircraft price will stabilize, then they will begin to rise again. Why, because their numbers will continue to go down due to lack of care and maintenance driven by continued inflation that will not be going away anytime soon. New aircraft will continue to skyrocket in price and will be out of grasp for most people. Legacy aircraft will still be the alternative, however, due to diminishing numbers and stable if not increasing demand for the benefits flight provides, legacy aircraft will continue to rise in price. The best equipped best maintained legacy aircraft will continue to demand top dollar and still be one half to one third the cost of a comparable new aircraft providing the same mission.


This is true for only 25% percent of the legacy piston fleet. The ones that are in prime condition. The other 75% will decline in value.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 09:28 
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Username Protected wrote:
Aircraft values will start to decline in the near future and continue, I don’t see a leveling for old legacy piston aircraft.

Gerry, how low do you think they will go?

You can already see it in the oddball and orphaned twins.

The value of a piston twin will be the value of the time remaining on the engines plus about 1/2 the value of avionics less than 10 years old. The airframe itself will have zero value.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 09:47 
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This is true for only 25% percent of the legacy piston fleet. The ones that are in prime condition. The other 75% will decline in value.[/quote]

Exactly...just as they are not holding their value now.

Aircraft like the Aerostar that enjoy full factory support will prosper. Others that do not will wither and go to the wayside. Nothing new here.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 11:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
This is true for only 25% percent of the legacy piston fleet. The ones that are in prime condition. The other 75% will decline in value.


Exactly...just as they are not holding their value now.

Aircraft like the Aerostar that enjoy full factory support will prosper. Others that do not will wither and go to the wayside. Nothing new here.[/quote]


When the Aerostar fleet shrinks to the point the factory will no longer support them, what happens then?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 11:01 
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I am not in aircraft sales but, with the 5% interest rates on Real Estate, we are seeing home prices plateau and new builds slow down in parts of Northern Virginia. The raw data is available publicly from our Realtor friends at http://www.nvar.com or over a beer talking to a few builders.

It would be interesting to correlate this year's data, with plane prices and time on market now, as well as historical prices for real estate and aircraft in 2005-2009, 1998-2002, 1979-1975, 1979-1982, and 1970-1975. That would certainly be an interesting overlay. What we don't have for aircraft, necessarily, is the raw sales data that exists with the titles and tax records in the courthouses.

With the lack of "cheap" money, have we peaked?
Is it time for the "R" word?
Will we see aircraft acquisition slowing down or have "we" already seen sales and purchases slowing?

...curious...


I've been in the market for a home outside of Florida, in what would NOT be considered a traditionally "high value" market (semi-rural Alabama vs say, South Florida). Over the last 8 months I've been looking, home prices have been nuts, and new inventory very slow to show up. The few offers I made were blown out of the water by multiple, cash bidders, in some cases $50k more than ask. I don't play the bidding game. If I'm serious, I'll make a legit offer with minimal contingencies (usually just an inspection & survey if more than average land is involved). I'm certainly not going to negotiate against myself.

Anyway, I looked at some "new build" communities, but they were all very quick to sell out, and never showed up online. That HAS changed, and the new-built communities have now flooded the online markets with inventory. I don't know if that's the pebble that starts the avalanche, but it is certainly different than what I've seen over the past 8 months.

Best,
Rich


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 13:30 
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Aircraft: 1969 Aerostar 600,
Username Protected wrote:
This is true for only 25% percent of the legacy piston fleet. The ones that are in prime condition. The other 75% will decline in value.


Exactly...just as they are not holding their value now.

Aircraft like the Aerostar that enjoy full factory support will prosper. Others that do not will wither and go to the wayside. Nothing new here.



When the Aerostar fleet shrinks to the point the factory will no longer support them, what happens then?[/quote]
Then the Aerostar will go the route of every other unsupported aircraft out there. However, until that happens :thumbup: :dancing: Honestly, I think there's bigger things to worry about at the moment, like 100UL.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 13:51 
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I can see the scavengers licking their chops to get those 50K+ avionics suites from those airplanes that got upgraded recently that are 30 years behind in deferred maintenance.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 15:45 
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I can see the scavengers licking their chops to get those 50K+ avionics suites from those airplanes that got upgraded recently that are 30 years behind in deferred maintenance.


That’s a really expensive way to get used, non-warranted avionics that may not work anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 17:00 
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Or you can just buy the airplane as a project.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 22:58 
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Location: Houston, TX KDWH
Aircraft: '81 Baron 58
We just brought home this 5000 hr 421C. It sat in a hangar the last 5 years…engine made metal. Sat, no annuals, locals were sure it would leave on a truck and parted out. 2 new rams, brand new props, driven on a truck and hung in place by TAS. Ferried out, 6 more months at TAS getting strakes, speed breaks, and full Monte maintenance.
Temple Avionics is putting in 600, 2 750s, new radar. New interior coming this summer… new paint by Aerosmith in September.
:crazy:

But wow…are we gonna enjoy it for a long time.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 May 2022, 23:56 
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Username Protected wrote:
We just brought home this 5000 hr 421C. It sat in a hangar the last 5 years…engine made metal.


That’s quite a spiffy machine there.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 May 2022, 00:07 
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Location: Walnut Creek, CA (KCCR)
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Username Protected wrote:
We just brought home this 5000 hr 421C. It sat in a hangar the last 5 years…engine made metal. Sat, no annuals, locals were sure it would leave on a truck and parted out. 2 new rams, brand new props, driven on a truck and hung in place by TAS. Ferried out, 6 more months at TAS getting strakes, speed breaks, and full Monte maintenance.
Temple Avionics is putting in 600, 2 750s, new radar. New interior coming this summer… new paint by Aerosmith in September.


Image

well done though! I can relate :)

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