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19 May 2022, 17:02 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 16:50 
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
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I've been doing this a long time and I have never seen used (or new) aircraft inventory levels this low. My world is acquiring turbine aircraft so that is what I know best, but apparently the same thing is happening, maybe worse, in piston airplanes.

It's hard to even calculate how low inventory levels are because most of the aircraft advertised for sale on Controller either aren't real or are already sold.

There's 48 King Air B200's currently listed for sale, but when you look at them there's nothing there. Sold, damaged, overpriced. But, even if they were real you are talking about a fleet of 1042 airplanes and only 48 are even supposedly for sale? That number usually stays between two and three times that.

Take the Learjet 45XR, there's only 3 or 4 US airplanes for sale, we bought one for a client last year and had at least a dozen to pick from. We purchased the third one we actually looked at! My client could sell his airplane today for a profit and will probably be able to sell it next year for a substantial profit.

Everyone knows we do a lot of Mustangs... decent airplane on an engine program, no damage history, priced right? The chances are almost 100% that we have to find that airplane off market, there's just nothing out there.

I keep hearing people say it's going to drop.

When?

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 17:00 
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What are the manufacturers doing while this is going on? Are new aircraft sales rising?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 17:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
What are the manufacturers doing while this is going on? Are new aircraft sales rising?


Absolutely. It's around a year wait for just about any new airplane.

I just hung up with Embraer they are September 2022 for a Phenom 300

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 17:40 
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Joined: 07/19/18
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Aircraft: On the hunt...
This *period* has all of the hallmarks of a market inflection point. An event, after which, it's likely that a fundamental change has taken place. That change can be either good or bad but, in my mind, the Covid fear driving the inflection in this case is not gong away soon so, for aviation, it's good. In fact if you stand back and look at it hard enough, squint just right, you might almost see this being the *event* that helps electric aviation become more real as well. Just blowing smoke rings ....


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 18:04 
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Chip,

Are there enough type rated & current pilots available to fly all these KA?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 18:21 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip,

Are there enough type rated & current pilots available to fly all these KA?


It's pretty tough, especially to find guys who are 300 / 350 typed. I have enough contacts that I can usually find a pilot, but there's certainly no one looking for work unless they have some limiting factor.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 19:45 
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Location: Hurst, TX
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Chip do you know if this is just the US market or can aircraft be found over in Europe/Asia still?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 20:23 
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Joined: 02/28/17
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Location: Panama City, FL
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I don't know if there's a connection...

I was at the local Ford dealership today to get a part for my Explorer. The lot was erriely empty. Handful of new trucks, couple of new cars. The used car side was even more empty. I know the chip shortage is impacting new cars but the lack of used cars was surprising.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 20:25 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip do you know if this is just the US market or can aircraft be found over in Europe/Asia still?


This is a worldwide phenomenon, plus US dealers are always searching for inventory outside the US.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 20:36 
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Word on the piston side is that turnkey airplanes sell in days. Aircraft that “are what they are” are sitting a good period of time. People may just need to roll up their sleeves to make airplanes what they want.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 20:37 
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Username Protected wrote:
I've been doing this a long time and I have never seen used (or new) aircraft inventory levels this low. My world is acquiring turbine aircraft so that is what I know best, but apparently the same thing is happening, maybe worse, in piston airplanes.

It's hard to even calculate how low inventory levels are because most of the aircraft advertised for sale on Controller either aren't real or are already sold.

There's 48 King Air B200's currently listed for sale, but when you look at them there's nothing there. Sold, damaged, overpriced. But, even if they were real you are talking about a fleet of 1042 airplanes and only 48 are even supposedly for sale? That number usually stays between two and three times that.

Take the Learjet 45XR, there's only 3 or 4 US airplanes for sale, we bought one for a client last year and had at least a dozen to pick from. We purchased the third one we actually looked at! My client could sell his airplane today for a profit and will probably be able to sell it next year for a substantial profit.

Everyone knows we do a lot of Mustangs... decent airplane on an engine program, no damage history, priced right? The chances are almost 100% that we have to find that airplane off market, there's just nothing out there.

I keep hearing people say it's going to drop.

When?


Chip,
I worked at a factory owned Beech dealer in the late seventies. The same situation existed then. One of our base customers that purchased a new 200 placed an order for a new one every year. When it was ready he simply sold his slot at a hefty profit. It all changed abruptly in 81 or so when a lot of people abandoned their deposits. I am sure that is going on now on a larger scale. A friend bought a new CJ3, operated it for a couple years with a CJ4 on order. Later sold the 3 and the 4 slot at a good profit. It can turn around overnight though.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 21:31 
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Joined: 05/23/13
Posts: 4697
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091
Username Protected wrote:
I've been doing this a long time and I have never seen used (or new) aircraft inventory levels this low. My world is acquiring turbine aircraft so that is what I know best, but apparently the same thing is happening, maybe worse, in piston airplanes.

It's hard to even calculate how low inventory levels are because most of the aircraft advertised for sale on Controller either aren't real or are already sold.

There's 48 King Air B200's currently listed for sale, but when you look at them there's nothing there. Sold, damaged, overpriced. But, even if they were real you are talking about a fleet of 1042 airplanes and only 48 are even supposedly for sale? That number usually stays between two and three times that.

Take the Learjet 45XR, there's only 3 or 4 US airplanes for sale, we bought one for a client last year and had at least a dozen to pick from. We purchased the third one we actually looked at! My client could sell his airplane today for a profit and will probably be able to sell it next year for a substantial profit.

Everyone knows we do a lot of Mustangs... decent airplane on an engine program, no damage history, priced right? The chances are almost 100% that we have to find that airplane off market, there's just nothing out there.

I keep hearing people say it's going to drop.

When?


Chip,
I worked at a factory owned Beech dealer in the late seventies. The same situation existed then. One of our base customers that purchased a new 200 placed an order for a new one every year. When it was ready he simply sold his slot at a hefty profit. It all changed abruptly in 81 or so when a lot of people abandoned their deposits. I am sure that is going on now on a larger scale. A friend bought a new CJ3, operated it for a couple years with a CJ4 on order. Later sold the 3 and the 4 slot at a good profit. It can turn around overnight though.


I hope it does. I'm having a lot of fun... but this is hard. We use to find three to five options for our clients to choose from, now we have to work three to five times harder to find one or two airplanes. Once we find one we have to move fast to buy it before anyone else finds out about it. It's crazy.
_________________
Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 22:38 
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Joined: 01/17/18
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Location: North Carolina
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Username Protected wrote:
I hope it does. I'm having a lot of fun... but this is hard. We use to find three to five options for our clients to choose from, now we have to work three to five times harder to find one or two airplanes. Once we find one we have to move fast to buy it before anyone else finds out about it. It's crazy.

Just be careful what you wish for and enjoy now.... we all know how these tides change. :cheers:


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 22:55 
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Joined: 08/14/13
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Username Protected wrote:
I don't know if there's a connection...

I was at the local Ford dealership today to get a part for my Explorer. The lot was erriely empty. Handful of new trucks, couple of new cars. The used car side was even more empty. I know the chip shortage is impacting new cars but the lack of used cars was surprising.


Car dealers are shifting to a new order/on-demand model and not a floorplanning model you all are used to

Times are changing


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Aug 2021, 23:02 
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Joined: 08/29/18
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Location: 5AZ3
Aircraft: 1966 Debonair C33A
I think the OP is correct. COVID is the culprit. Who in their right mind wants go on an airline someplace? If you can squeeze financially into your own plane, you do it. Who wants the hassle of airline flying? TSA, the lines at airports, masks, no good food, no booze on the plane, flight attendants who are acting like the gastapo on the flights, unruly passengers, late, cancelled flights I could go on, but why! I was an airline captain for over 20 years and I am so happy I retired early last year. It’s a s—t show! I’m flying my own C340 now and will only travel on it. Sure, it costs more but I can carry all the booze( not drinking it of course) and firearms I want. No mask and I know I’m getting where I want when I want. It’s no wonder charter and fractional companies are flying like crazy!
As long as there is the threat of Covid shutdowns and fear, there will be a huge need for private aircraft travel. IMHO.


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