19 Apr 2024, 10:53 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Nov 2021, 20:19 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 11/07/11 Posts: 723 Post Likes: +412 Location: KBED, KCRE
Aircraft: Phenom 100
|
|
Username Protected wrote: “ Unfortunately, many of those selling a legacy jet will want to buy a late model for higher fuel efficiency.”
Chip, no 501 owner is trading in on a CJ to save 20 GPH at a 3-6x increase in capital costs.
Gas prices you see today are simply inflation adjusted. Gas is still pretty cheap.
Mike It's also the cheapest expense in flying. Chip-
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Nov 2021, 22:33 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 12/30/15 Posts: 714 Post Likes: +740 Location: NH; KLEB
Aircraft: M2, erstwhile G58
|
|
Username Protected wrote: “Private jet takeoffs and landings are up 40%…” “Even then, the supply of second-hand private jets is near record lows.” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/26/t ... -boom.htmlHow high does fuel have to go before people stop flying and inventory rises?
We may be seeing a bifurcation in the aviation market that parallels those in other markets. People for whom price matters and people for whom price is much less relevant than availability.
Am willing to bet (no fact base here) that a lot of the new, or "excess", demand for jets and turboprops, (not pistons), is being driven by first time buyers or new entrants into General Aviation. Also willing to bet at some level a good portion of the new entrants are relatively insensitive to fuel price inflation and other costs. Uber wealthy who have entered into GA due to COVID related factors and the cattle-car nature of commercial airline flights.
So it may have to go very, very high.
Question I have is how high do all forms of inflation have to go until they throw out the clowns and elect some adults? If there are any adults to be found...if we are worthy of adult leadership.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 02:03 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 05/31/13 Posts: 1235 Post Likes: +602 Company: Docking Drawer Location: KCCR
Aircraft: C425
|
|
This might show up behind a paywall but give it a try: https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-fl ... mail_shareIn case you can't read it, some excerpts: "Sales are being propelled by wealthy individuals—many of them first-time buyers" "Jet makers, especially those making smaller planes carrying six to 10 passengers, said buyers who have never owned a private jet account for as much as a quarter of sales, far higher than historical levels. Some customers include fliers who previously traveled commercially but have shifted toward business jets for health and safety reasons during the pandemic, according to Eric Martel, chief executive of Bombardier." "Industry executives said as many as a quarter of buyers of new planes this year haven’t previously owned a jet. Michael Amalfitano, CEO of the executive jet arm of Embraer, said at a recent industry conference that users were also getting younger, including millennials and those from Generations X and Z."
_________________ ATP, CFI-I, MEI http://www.dockingdrawer.com
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 11:41 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 06/09/09 Posts: 4573 Post Likes: +3298
Aircraft: C182P, Merlin IIIC
|
|
More inventory coming online, I was just offered an off market G550 and DA7X.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 11:47 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 6784 Post Likes: +7328 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
|
|
Username Protected wrote: “ Unfortunately, many of those selling a legacy jet will want to buy a late model for higher fuel efficiency.”
Chip, no 501 owner is trading in on a CJ to save 20 GPH at a 3-6x increase in capital costs.
Gas prices you see today are simply inflation adjusted. Gas is still pretty cheap.
Mike I’m thinking more along the lines of sell a Lear 35/45 and buy a CJ3. Assuming you can afford the payments, a loan on a $4M airplane starts to look enticing when you consider term of financing and lower operating / fuel cost. Maybe a $4M CJ3 should be in green…
_________________ It’s a brave new world, one where most have forgotten the old ways.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 15:41 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 727 Post Likes: +340 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
|
|
Username Protected wrote: “ Unfortunately, many of those selling a legacy jet will want to buy a late model for higher fuel efficiency.”
Chip, no 501 owner is trading in on a CJ to save 20 GPH at a 3-6x increase in capital costs.
Gas prices you see today are simply inflation adjusted. Gas is still pretty cheap.
Mike I’m thinking more along the lines of sell a Lear 35/45 and buy a CJ3. Assuming you can afford the payments, a loan on a $4M airplane starts to look enticing when you consider term of financing and lower operating / fuel cost. Maybe a $4M CJ3 should be in green…
A CJ3 can be had in the 4’s
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 19:48 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 6784 Post Likes: +7328 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
|
|
Username Protected wrote: I’m thinking more along the lines of sell a Lear 35/45 and buy a CJ3. Assuming you can afford the payments, a loan on a $4M airplane starts to look enticing when you consider term of financing and lower operating / fuel cost.
Maybe a $4M CJ3 should be in green…
A CJ3 can be had in the 4’s
Send them my way, I’ll take 3!
_________________ It’s a brave new world, one where most have forgotten the old ways.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 28 Nov 2021, 22:18 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 727 Post Likes: +340 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
|
|
Username Protected wrote: A CJ3 can be had in the 4’s
Send them my way, I’ll take 3!
There's one on controller asking 5mil but taking offers. Pretty sure you can get a deal done in the mid to high 4's. You're welcome.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 29 Nov 2021, 20:55 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 6784 Post Likes: +7328 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
|
|
Username Protected wrote: There's one on controller asking 5mil but taking offers. Pretty sure you can get a deal done in the mid to high 4's. You're welcome.
The 2006 with original paint and interior? They'll probably get mid $4's but not from my client. If it's on Controller and not sold... there's a reason.
_________________ It’s a brave new world, one where most have forgotten the old ways.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 01 Dec 2021, 09:48 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 727 Post Likes: +340 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
|
|
Username Protected wrote: There's one on controller asking 5mil but taking offers. Pretty sure you can get a deal done in the mid to high 4's. You're welcome.
The 2006 with original paint and interior? They'll probably get mid $4's but not from my client. If it's on Controller and not sold... there's a reason.
I guess airplanes on controller aren’t really for sale.
|
|
Top |
|
Username Protected
|
Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 01 Dec 2021, 17:59 |
|
|
|
|
Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 19252 Post Likes: +23622 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
|
|
Username Protected wrote: I guess airplanes on controller aren’t really for sale. A good percentage of them aren't. Anything still on Controller right now in the business turbine class probably has a serious issue of wrong price, bad condition, etc, because it is easy to sell right now without ever having to go to a listing service. I've received unsolicited offers on my V approaching double what I paid a year ago. I'm not selling because I can't replace it and it now has my sweat equity in getting it into shape. I'm emotionally committed to keeping it for a while. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
Last edited on 01 Dec 2021, 23:30, edited 1 time in total.
|
|
Top |
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot post attachments in this forum
|
Terms of Service | Forum FAQ | Contact Us
BeechTalk, LLC is the quintessential Beechcraft Owners & Pilots Group providing a
forum for the discussion of technical, practical, and entertaining issues relating to all Beech aircraft. These include
the Bonanza (both V-tail and straight-tail models), Baron, Debonair, Duke, Twin Bonanza, King Air, Sierra, Skipper, Sport, Sundowner,
Musketeer, Travel Air, Starship, Queen Air, BeechJet, and Premier lines of airplanes, turboprops, and turbojets.
BeechTalk, LLC is not affiliated or endorsed by the Beechcraft Corporation, its subsidiaries, or affiliates.
Beechcraft™, King Air™, and Travel Air™ are the registered trademarks of the Beechcraft Corporation.
Copyright© BeechTalk, LLC 2007-2024
|
|
|
|