Did you see his predictions on the SF50?

Did you see his predictions on the SF50?

Don't know how many others are in my situation, but working from home (which is now confirmed as being permanent) is what allowed me to earn my PPL earlier this year...never would have been a possibility with a long and exhausting commute. And of course I'm now casually plane shopping as I mull what exactly my mission will be

Sometimes Beechtalk is a great place to find and share information, other times it's like watching very intelligent kindergarteners argue over nonsense.

The crime here is a sales guy is allegedly posting too much sales stuff, and then the other guy's crime was he pointed it out. Surely there are more important things to be annoyed by that don't involve personally attacking either one of those people, even if it is partly a joke. I am sure I am not alone on this forum in having been bullied as a kid, and I don't like it any more now than I did then, even if it's not happening to me and even if it's under the veil of a joke.

This same effect is happening in houses, boats, etc. I think the net result will be in about 2 years there will be a lot of great deals from people that find out this is not what I want.

If you can wait then the prices will realign.

I have friends in Colorado and Montana and they have seen this before. the guy/gal really loves the mountains and spends a lot of money moving, building a great house but about two years later they discover they need to drive 200 miles to get to a good airport. the malls, dr's they want etc. are all 1 to 5 hours away and they move back to the city from where they came. There will be some who discover they really like the country and kayaks and continue living there but many will find that is not their thing and they will sell them at a huge discount.

the internet will allows some to relocate and stay but where you grew up really defines a person's view of the world. However the internet is a real boon for those that had to move to the city to utilize their education as now they can move back home.

If you want to predict where someone will want to live and what they think, look at where they were and what they did and thought at age 10 when a human's view of the world becomes much more fixed.

Now that all may be true for REal Estate, but wee'z talk'n 'bout AIRPLANES here ...

And there is one BIG difference between Real Estate and Airplanes : MOBILITY !

PLanes are a tool for increasing one's mobility. Now, that mobility does'nt even have to be "practical" or even "economically viable, think $100 bugers, so long as one gets a feeling of increased Freedom.

I M H O , that's the biggest single "driver" of the current GA Market.

Now that all may be true for REal Estate, but wee'z talk'n 'bout AIRPLANES here ...

And there is one BIG difference between Real Estate and Airplanes : MOBILITY !

PLanes are a tool for increasing one's mobility. Now, that mobility does'nt even have to be "practical" or even "economically viable, think $100 bugers, so long as one gets a feeling of increased Freedom.

I M H O , that's the biggest single "driver" of the current GA Market.

I would appreciate it if someone would provide statistical data that this surge of buying is:

#1 across the board, piston engine singles and twins and TP's.

#2 that the usage of GA piston airplane is also up in accordance with the buying frenzy.

I simply do not see anything of the sort.

I stand to be corrected by something other than opinion and micro images of specific locales.

Jg

The problem with providing "statistical data" is it requires collection of history so it may atke a quarter or two before you will see something meanigful.

That said, I just sold a nice Cirrus SR20 for +30% of what I was expecting to get for it just 6 months ago, to the 1st person that looked at it.

I know, I know, not bonafide statistical data, but you know what they say : "if it smells like ..."

Aviation has always been the first activity to decline and the last to recover during any type of economic adjustment.

If you can afford to wait 18 to 24 months there will be lots of good planes at better prices.

Hmmm, are you suggesting that the current up-tick is the "recover" phase to the last economy adjustment ?

Then number of available aircraft plummeted. The prices went up; typical supply and demand. I'm seeing more starting to be available for sale. Jaime Steel, big Cirrus reseller, has said the same for the past year. She even had a post of a plane she sold 2 years ago and then sold it again, for more money, after it had a few hundred hours put on it.

Usage? That's a lot harder. Are people really using the planes they are buying? Harder to tell. We flew more last year, but I know others that flew less. Avgas numbers might tell us something, but with flight training shutting down it would muddy the waters on that.

I agree that if things straighten out in this pandemic mess we'll see more planes back on the used market and prices leveling out or even dropping back down to where they were about 2 years ago.

You can look at the number of airplanes of a certain type on controller relative to the fleet size.

Others will know better, but I'm used to seeing 8-9% of a fleet of a type for sale. Right now for some types it's more like 2%. They made about 290 425s and there are currently what I would guess is 5 "real" planes for sale. 5/290 = 1.7%.

Another sales guy coming along to stick up for Chip. Mike is a super smart guy. He shares it with us to our betterment. I don’t know what happened along the way that he feels the need to bully Chip. I’d hate to think it’s because the smartest guy in the room has a thing against people that succeed with their personality.

God gave us all talents and expects we use them. They aren’t all the same.

If every BT Sponsor posted like Chip, creating threads to show off their services, even indirectly, BT would be ruined.

The other vendors are generally answering threads, not creating them, which is great.

Mike C.