Our own Jerry Maguire.

If you can't buy a new car, you're not going to trade your used car.

Plus you can get a lot more for your old car by selling it privately.

There is a shortage of all kinds of things these days. Try buying a truck lately?! Perhaps easier to buy gold bullion. Nothing special about airplanes. Government is pumping so much money into the economy that there are shortages of all things. There is more money out there than things to buy. Might be looking at massive inflation down the road. I could be wrong, but at one point it did take a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a load of bread in Germany. Of course that could never happen again.

if we measured inflation today the way we did in the 70s, we’d like see what we all feel… double digit inflation. It’s here. Right now.

If we had interest rates that we had in the 70's, the economy would probably instantly collapse, and along with it everyone's retirement 401k retirement plans.

Take a look at historical interest rates and then look at the past 12 years. There is literally no "safe place" for money, and it affects every person and business.

Best,
Rich

All it will take is a significant sell off in the stock market to reverse the buying of goods and services due to the "wealth effect" of rising portfolios, that when the balances start going down, people tighten up on spending.

Any number of things can cause a stock market reversal, including the Black Swan nobody anticipated, and even then often reversals are more about perception and fear, rather than reality. Are we in a period of "irrational exuberance"?

Maybe with the emergence of the Covid Delta variant, investing in toilet paper would work.

Speaking of the trend happening in other a/c markets, I can echo a similar trend in the SR22 market. It's white hot and showing no signs of slowing down. I'm shopping for late model SRs and am having a heck of a time. Prices are way overinflated and most are fetching list price or close to list. I went to make an offer on an airplane that was a new listing in the morning and by early afternoon it was sold and the sales guy had (5) backup offers behind it. Most aircraft listed on Controller are already long gone and the bulk of the actual sales are happening on brokers' 'pending' lists which are not yet publicly listed. Most don't make it to Controller.

I'd love to let this market settle another year or more but business is picking back up and I'll also have to pay recapture taxes if I don't buy before the end of '21 (I sold my G5 this last spring). I'm trying to weigh the difference between buying in a hot market or just paying the tax bill for a year and buying instead in late 2022. Problem is that the productivity loss will also be significant in that time.

At the risk of crossing over into the investment thread...

COVID/Delta won't pop the bubble(s). Heck, it will throw fuel on the fire. More lockdowns mean more stimmies which means more money chasing fewer assets (because the manufacturers are locked down). Exactly what we've seen the last 16 months.

It's all about the Fed. If/when they start tapering/raising rates, that's when the asset party ends. And when they start tapering/raising rates is dependent on what they consider to be inflation getting too high. They have their own (lousy) metrics so no one really knows. They have been saying not until 2023 so this party could go on for another 18 months.

Add to the FWIW file:

Previously, I never received unsolicited offers to buy my plane.

In the last 10 days I've received three....

And we haven't even started yet. I often hear on the conservative news that the government is looking to spend another 3.5 trillion dollars. Real estate might be a pretty good place to be. I don't like crypto - too volatile.

At the risk of crossing over into the investment thread...

COVID/Delta won't pop the bubble(s). Heck, it will throw fuel on the fire. More lockdowns mean more stimmies which means more money chasing fewer assets (because the manufacturers are locked down). Exactly what we've seen the last 16 months.

It's all about the Fed. If/when they start tapering/raising rates, that's when the asset party ends. And when they start tapering/raising rates is dependent on what they consider to be inflation getting too high. They have their own (lousy) metrics so no one really knows. They have been saying not until 2023 so this party could go on for another 18 months.

At the risk of crossing over into the investment thread...

COVID/Delta won't pop the bubble(s). Heck, it will throw fuel on the fire. More lockdowns mean more stimmies which means more money chasing fewer assets (because the manufacturers are locked down). Exactly what we've seen the last 16 months.

It's all about the Fed. If/when they start tapering/raising rates, that's when the asset party ends. And when they start tapering/raising rates is dependent on what they consider to be inflation getting too high. They have their own (lousy) metrics so no one really knows. They have been saying not until 2023 so this party could go on for another 18 months.

What a weird statement to make given all the additional measures they deployed last year including bringing MBS and other assets onto their balance sheet

What a weird statement to make given all the additional measures they deployed last year including bringing MBS and other assets onto their balance sheet