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28 May 2022, 15:20 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 01:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
Add in hourly mx

Outside of MPI-3 (HSI) and MPI-4 (OH) what routine maintenance does Williams pay for? I was under the impression that was minimal, well under $65/hour benefit. At least, I didn't see anything of that significance in the TAP contract.

Mike C.


Everything. Mpi1. Mpi2. Any scheduled and unscheduled mx. There is nothing engine related that's not covered. We found an oil leak from the seal on the accessory drive shaft whilst swapping a starter generator. They immediately scheduled a textron MSU out to our home base and had the seals and associated parts replaced and the engines test ran at no cost to us.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 08:11 
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You actually have your numbers inverted. There are approximately 29,301 private jets and turboprops in service that were built since 1990... only 9282 of those same types still flying were manufactured prior to 1990.

Older turbines, especially private jets are either viable or they aren't. The cost of fuel is not what kills them, it's maintenance, avionics and noise abatement.

Citation 550's are still flying, though there's not a ton of demand. Lear 35's, Falcon 10's are on their way out... Westwinds are all but gone. My beloved 20 series Lears and old GII's and GIII's are gone.


One can argue, (especially in light of what banks are willing to finance) that anything over 20 years is considered a legacy turbine.
What are the numbers pre/post 2001?


Good point, when I’m back at my computer I’ll run the numbers and let you know!
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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 09:47 
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Aircraft: G44, R44, C501, C55
[/quote]

I know a guy that had two 15ds In a 2sp citation, 180,000$ By Avmats in Missouri . You gotta figure out what blades you have, iirc some are on condition and some you have to change. Pretty sure it’s not a supported engine anymore either.[/quote]

Bad advice, Jt15d is extremely well supported. I hot 15+ of these a year and the average is $30k. Worst was $75k, cheapest was $15k


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:10 
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Username Protected wrote:
What are the numbers pre/post 2001?



There are 22,860 private jets and turboprops in service that were manufactured after Jan 1, 2001, that really shows just how few airplanes were built in the 1990's

15,725 of the active fleet of 38,585 was built prior to 2001.
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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:16 
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If you aren't paying for an engine program, the value of your airplane is dropping for each engine hour you fly it

If you are paying for an engine program, the value of your plane is dropping for each engine hour you fly it. Paying on an engine program doesn't stop the value loss.

Mike C.


It doesn't stop it, but it's minimal. A CJ3 on TAP Blue with 3950 hour motors has the same value as one with 50 hour motors.

Take that logic to an Ultra or Encore with engines at TBO and the difference becomes apparent.

Yes, the ability to operate past TBO has breathed some life into those airplanes, but the practice of operating a jet like that past TBO is still largely frowned upon and many Citation shops won't do a Phase V if you are past TBO.

Back to the subject of this post... if I had a Citation at or past TBO I would take advantage of the current market and sell it!
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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


Last edited on 24 Oct 2021, 11:17, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:16 
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Username Protected wrote:
Everything. Mpi1. Mpi2. Any scheduled and unscheduled mx.

I don't think that adds up to $65/hour. Does the FJ44 require that much maintenance between major events?

Quote:
They immediately scheduled a textron MSU out to our home base and had the seals and associated parts replaced and the engines test ran at no cost to us.

The contract does say this:

Expenses associated with transporting non-Williams maintenance personnel to accomplish maintenance actions, expenses associated with ferrying or relocating Aircraft, or transportation costs.

Seems like the MSU cost should have been on you per that clause. It would be within Williams rights to exclude the MSU cost per the contract.

Quote:
There is nothing engine related that's not covered.

There is a list of 17 exclusions in the contract, including:

Maintenance identified as recommended per chapter 5 of the applicable Williams International Line Maintenance Manual (e.g. water rinse, compressor cleaning, heated inlet polishing, etc.).

So not everything seems to be covered. Things like starter/generators and hydraulic pumps are airframe supplied and not covered, either.

Here are the downsides to the Williams:

1. Williams can change the terms arbitrarily at contract renewal (typically every 5 years).

2. Williams can change the price every year without limit (long ago the contract was tied to CPI-W, no more).

3. If you don't fly 150 hours/year, you pay for those hours anyway (you do presently get 1 year in 5 grace, so don't ever fly 149.5 hours one year!).

4. Over a TBO cycle, the total payments are $1.7M. That is an excessive amount of money for the engines and in some cases exceeds the value of the aircraft (as is your case with the Eagle II).

5. If, at any time, you go off program, say for non payment or other snafu, the ENTIRE value of previous payments are lost. To get back on program requires paying every hour from hour zero. There's no credit for past payments.

6. You don't get thrust reversers.

The Williams plan works for some, doesn't work for others. I tried pretty hard to buy a Williams equipped plane (S550 with FJ44-3A, and a 501 with FJ44-2A Eagle II like yours) and was willing to sell my soul to them, but in the end, I decided against it and got a V with JT15D-5A. I'm glad I did for various reasons. I have come to appreciate the advantages of thrust reversers for one. Another is that my fuel penalty is not as big as I had thought, about 10-15% more, and my performance is higher. I found the Eagle II mod particularly underwhelming for performance as the fuel hump lowers the critical Mach number and limits cruise speed.

Williams does manipulate the rules to their advantage. For example, if the engine is on program, it has a 5000 hour TBO, off program 4000 hours. How the engine knows it can last longer when you send a check to Williams is beyond me. Also, Williams prices off program major engine work to be about 30% higher cost than if you had made the program payments. Basically, you have to be on the program or Williams will stick it to you.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:17 
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Username Protected wrote:
Jt15d is extremely well supported. I hot 15+ of these a year and the average is $30k. Worst was $75k, cheapest was $15k

What shop(s) do you use?

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:20 
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There are 22,860 private jets and turboprops in service that were manufactured after Jan 1, 2001, that really shows just how few airplanes were built in the 1990's

15,725 of the active fleet of 38,585 was built prior to 2001.

Chip, maybe you mentioned this before, but how do you define "in service"? And are those US numbers or worldwide numbers?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:20 
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Yes, the ability to operate past TBO has breathed some life into those airplanes, but the practice of operating a jet like that past TBO is still largely frowned upon and many Citation shops won't do a Phase V if you are past TBO.

Name those shops.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:22 
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I'm not here to defend Williams or to interpret their contract, I'll just say my experience with them has always been positive.

There's a lot of airplanes out there with TAP Deferred and they aren't requiring repayment of each hour to reinstate the program. Contracts are meant to set the boundaries not the practices, but yes it is buyer beware, they do have a monopoly... thankfully they seem benevolent and they still have to please their customers to be successful.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
Yes, the ability to operate past TBO has breathed some life into those airplanes, but the practice of operating a jet like that past TBO is still largely frowned upon and many Citation shops won't do a Phase V if you are past TBO.

Name those shops.

Mike C.


Textron, West Star, Stevens, Standard Aero, and more small shops than I could possibly list here.

It says in the MM that all inspections and recommended manufacturers limitations must be complied with to sign off the phase 5.
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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:26 
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Username Protected wrote:
What are the numbers pre/post 2001?



There are 22,860 private jets and turboprops in service that were manufactured after Jan 1, 2001, that really shows just how few airplanes were built in the 1990's

15,725 of the active fleet of 38,585 was built prior to 2001.


Thanks.
So even using 2001 as the cutoff, legacy turbines only account for just over 40% of the fleet.
Interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:29 
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I'm not here to defend Williams or to interpret their contract, I'll just say my experience with them has always been positive.

There's a lot of airplanes out there with TAP Deferred and they aren't requiring repayment of each hour to reinstate the program. Contracts are meant to set the boundaries not the practices, but yes it is buyer beware, they do have a monopoly... thankfully they seem benevolent and they still have to please their customers to be successful.


This. ^^^^^^


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:34 
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Username Protected wrote:
Thanks.
So even using 2001 as the cutoff, legacy turbines only account for just over 40% of the fleet.
Interesting.

It would be even more interesting to know what % of flight hours are flown by 2001 and newer planes.

Looking at ADS-B, I think I have an idea. Seems to be a lot higher than 60%.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 24 Oct 2021, 11:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
they do have a monopoly... thankfully they seem benevolent and they still have to please their customers to be successful.

I concur, they have a good reputation.

But, it is a risk. Absolute power corrupts absolutely and Williams has essentially absolute power in the relationship.

Suppose, for example, one day you hear Williams is getting acquired by another firm. Whatever comfort level you have with their benevolence may be gone.

Mike C.

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