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29 May 2022, 05:32 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Oct 2021, 17:06 
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I would think TAP and Controller would just lead to never ending Tire Kickers. Overall I think a BT listing finds a much more targeted and serious audience. Now with a bigger plane, if/when I sell my smaller one, it will start out right here on BT.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 08:17 
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I enjoy this discussion. Most legacy Citations are trading word of mouth or soft listings like BT or Barnstormers. My piston market knowledge isn't great except I recently bought my wife a 3100TT 172RG. I really wanted a regular 172 and they are all but impossible to find. I'm happy with what I got and paid a little under 100K for a low time bird with lots of modern Garmin stuff, a new leather interior and a 100 hour motor/prop. I think if it was a fixed gear 172 it would have cost $150K. I asked the piston broker (Indy Air Sales who moves 100+ pistons a year) what he thought about this situation and he said the following that stuck:

1) Lots of exports
2) Lots of planes getting wrecked or scrapped
3) Few new airplanes with high prices getting built

It's a FACT that 1-3 is not going away. His conclusion was (and I agree) that for GOOD examples of a type, they are going to continue to appreciate and get harder to find. Is a global economic meltdown on the horizon? Who knows and obviously that will cause ALL prices to plummet including airplanes. However, inflation is real and I believe it is here to stay. $6 avgas is the new $4 avgas. Hangar rents and insurance premiums are doubling. Wages are increasing.

Strange times we are seeing.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 09:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
I would think TAP and Controller would just lead to never ending Tire Kickers. Overall I think a BT listing finds a much more targeted and serious audience. Now with a bigger plane, if/when I sell my smaller one, it will start out right here on BT.



As for “tire kickers”, remember: “ all buyers were lookers once”. I find that a lot of lookers are seeking information to become buyers.


Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 11:13 
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7 dollar a gallon gas and higher JetA prices will change the market and more aircraft will be for sale.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 19:25 
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7 dollar a gallon gas and higher JetA prices will change the market and more aircraft will be for sale.


That may be true in the lower end piston world, but in the turbine world it drives sales of newer airplanes that burn less fuel.

It is true that people fly less when fuel goes up, but if $7 fuel puts you out of the game, you were probably on the edge of your comfort level already.

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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 19:31 
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The question is???

How many recent Turbine buyers are at the edge of their comfort level.

What happens to the older fuel guzzling Turbines

Does this mean more older Turbines on the market?

What percentage of the Turbine market are older Turbines? 75%?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 19:51 
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Username Protected wrote:
The question is???

How many recent Turbine buyers are at the edge of their comfort level.

What happens to the older fuel guzzling Turbines

Does this mean more older Turbines on the market?

What percentage of the Turbine market are older Turbines? 75%?


I think you can make an argument that all turbines guzzle fuel and the new ones aren’t dramatically better than the old ones. The technology really hasn’t improved very much and the Williams motor program costs more than than any fuel savings on a Pratt powered machine. In many ways, an updated MU-2 or Citation is a better airplane than any new airplane available and costs 5-10% what a new version would cost. I feel they will always have a place in the market.


Last edited on 22 Oct 2021, 21:37, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 20:46 
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Yep.
You get your choice. Low CapEx, higher OpEx or High CapEx lower OpEx.
For the avg personal user, the program minimums on newer airplanes can be onerous. And make no mistake, if there are Williams powered engines on it, you will be on their program.
One of the advantages of late generation airplanes are avionics. Fortunately, as Mike has shown, the retrofit market is rife with combinations to fit most any desire.
The OEM installed avionics such as G1000 etc are great. But for upgrades and additional capabilities, you will be looking to the airframe manufacturer, not Garmin. And that generally does not work out in the favor of someone who is budget minded.

Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 21:57 
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Oil is high and going higher. If JetA is 7 dollars a gallon or more.
What is the impact on old turbines


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 22:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
Oil is high and going higher. If JetA is 7 dollars a gallon or more.
What is the impact on old turbines

Old turbines will pay 7 dollars a gallon or more just like new turbines. Same impact.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2021, 22:14 
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Old turbine burns 150 an hour, new turbine burns 120 an hour. At 7/gallon minus 320 an hour program fees, old turbines still win. $7 isn’t happening I think we will see $4-5.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Oct 2021, 07:27 
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I doubt the guy owning an old turbine is really worried about $7.00 a gallon jetA any more than the guy owning a new turbine. The big picture.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Oct 2021, 07:45 
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Ignoring the possible impacts of the lead issue for avgas, history will repeat itself in a pretty predictable manner.

When, not if, "gas" prices go up, they will do so across the board and affect all transportation. At first, it will reduce the purely discretionary transportation. Then, it will begin to redefine what people define as necessary transportation. Finally, it actually begins to force people to seek more economical transportation in their efforts to ride share, take public transportation and, finally, to actually change their purchasing patterns. The big, jacked up 4 wheel drives will become yard ornaments and dealer's lots will be cleaned of any vehicle that promises efficiency.

To legitimate users of aircraft, it means less. They still have to go. To those pretending to need and airplane, turbine or piston, their response has, in the past, been the most immediate and maybe the most violent. Like in 2008, the aircraft market will collapse on the bottom end.

Don't believe me? Just look around. Even at today's "reasonable" prices, the gas guzzling airplanes are sitting like a frog with two broken legs.

The lower end turbines and jets aren't going to the people who really have a use. Those owners are moving up. The old legacy units are going to those who are finally able to fill their dreams of jet ownership as the last few hours of use are eked out of those airplanes.

Yesterday, I drove to Memphis with a trailer to try to round up roofing supplies for my remaining flat roofs. I had to go to four suppliers to get everything I needed. Some of the items won't be replenished for up to a year.

The economy is moving again, but like a 40 year old delivery truck, it is spitting and sputtering. On the way home, I did something unusual, I turned from a music to a news channel. The government can't figure out why folks won't go to work while they "fine tune" another 4 trillion dollar give away to the non-producing members of society. And the president said he didn't know why gas prices were going up and couldn't do anything about it.

When I got home, I got on the computer and started looking at the Twin Comanche market.

As the author of the economic's history book, The Rational Optimist, said: this world is poised for the greatest advances of all times. The only thing that can stop it is government.

For the first time in a long time, I am scared.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Oct 2021, 13:50 
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Username Protected wrote:

I think you can make an argument that all turbines guzzle fuel and the new ones aren’t dramatically better than the old ones. The technology really hasn’t improved very much and the Williams motor program costs more than than any fuel savings on a Pratt powered machine. In many ways, an updated MU-2 or Citation is a better airplane than any new airplane available and costs 5-10% what a new version would cost. I feel they will always have a place in the market.


It's important to add that the cost of the Williams / Pratt engine programs on newer technology motors offsets the cost of engine overhauls, not the difference in fuel consumption. The premium of that cost is offset by the fuel efficiency.

If you aren't paying for an engine program, the value of your airplane is dropping for each engine hour you fly it, when it comes motors there's no free flying. Pay now or pay when you sell.

The real bottom line value in legacy airplanes is the lower acquisition cost. If you have the budget for a $3M and up airplane the numbers speak for themselves. If it's less than that it could go either way, less than about $1.5M and a non-program legacy citation will be hard to beat.

Agreed that they'll always have a place, specifically the Citation V / Ultra is about the best value there is.

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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Username Protected wrote:
The question is???

How many recent Turbine buyers are at the edge of their comfort level.

What happens to the older fuel guzzling Turbines

Does this mean more older Turbines on the market?

What percentage of the Turbine market are older Turbines? 75%?


You actually have your numbers inverted. There are approximately 29,301 private jets and turboprops in service that were built since 1990... only 9282 of those same types still flying were manufactured prior to 1990.

Older turbines, especially private jets are either viable or they aren't. The cost of fuel is not what kills them, it's maintenance, avionics and noise abatement.

Citation 550's are still flying, though there's not a ton of demand. Lear 35's, Falcon 10's are on their way out... Westwinds are all but gone. My beloved 20 series Lears and old GII's and GIII's are gone.

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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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