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28 May 2022, 03:50 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 10:53 
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Joined: 10/18/11
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Aircraft: Seabee Aerostar 700
the development that I think will kill small aircraft for many trips is self driving automobiles.

I use my aircraft a lot of the time for shorter trips up to 300 miles and I love it.

but If I look at the actual time door to door it doesn't save much time even on the 300 mile trips.

If I could get in the car go to the local freeway put it on auto pilot and tell it to get off at the city I am going to 250 miles away and then sleep, call customers etc it would be really great. The freeway environment is an easy one to safely automate.

I do not need it to do the city driving but to do the main distance transportation would really increase what I can get done and really not make the use of the aircraft any quicker in the big scheme of things.

I think the same thing for trucks would really help. driving on a controlled situation like a freeway is straightforward to do with existing technology it is the city driving where a human is really needed do a good job. So if the trucking industry would allow the driver to basically work 18 hours a day or more where 12 hours was freeway or high quality state roads and the driver could sleep etc, the driver could be well rested for any big problem.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 11:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
the development that I think will kill small aircraft for many trips is self driving automobiles.

Then small GA is in good shape.

Quote:
The freeway environment is an easy one to safely automate.

We are quite far from "driverless" cars. Even if you have a car that can do it on freeways, you still need to be the driver so you can't be dong work during that time.

In other words, this is a legal problem, not a technical one, but a problem none the less.

Also, if driverless cars become common, traffic will get much worse so small aircraft win again.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 12:37 
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Joined: 01/24/10
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
When driverless vehicles are a reality roads will be congested.

You will have to file for a time and route in advance much like IFR today.

It will be ok for a while until you have to file a day in advance to use a particular road or route.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 17:50 
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Joined: 05/23/08
Posts: 6038
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Location: CMB7, Ottawa, Canada
Aircraft: TBM - C185 - T206
Im getting 1-2 email per week of dealers wanting to buy my TBM with 0 comission...

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Former Baron 58 owner.
Pistons engines are for tractors.

Marc Bourdon


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 17:57 
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Joined: 05/23/08
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Location: CMB7, Ottawa, Canada
Aircraft: TBM - C185 - T206
Agreed,

Add to this in Canada starting Nov 01st, you wont be able to take a domestic aircraft, bus or train without showing proof of being double vaccinated.
Crazy.

But... GA is not for everyone, lot of pilot are not IFR rated and dont see GA as transportation. That wont change.


Username Protected wrote:
GA is actually poised for a major recovery, if GA as a business can adapt to the changing market. Demand is up, way up. Why? Bottom line; terrible experience flying with the airlines. Almost nothing runs on time, pax are rude, masks are almost universally hated, prices are high, and hell, you can't even get a drink if you want one. Add to that the horrible waste of time TSA has turned into, and well, most will do almost anything to avoid flying on the airlines.

Add to this, a changing work environment. With the work place changes driven by Covid, in most cases you DO NOT have to absolutely, positively be home for work. If you take one or two extra days for more favorable weather, it is not nearly as big a deal as it was 3 years ago. Telecommuting is accepted by many if not most businesses. It doesn't work for all, but it does for many.

Now, comes the hard part. Can GA as an industry step up? I am not so confident in this area. One single engine manufacturer has really changed the market, and that is Cirrus. Fly one of their planes and you get speed, far better room (cockpit width), far better ergonomics, far better comfort with air-conditioning being more or less standard and double doors for easier entry, performance is equal to retractible aircraft of similar horsepower, and you have the chute, which is a game changer for SE operations. Add to that, a complete training package, fully integrated avionics, and nice little touches like a key fob that locks the aircraft when you walk away.

Innovation comes in small bites, and some companies get it. Take GAMI for instance. They developed or improved three fabulous products, the GAMIjector, and the Turbo-Normalizing system paired with LOP operations, and now 100 UL. This in the kind of innovation that changes markets. FTA air conditioning is another innovative product, producing AC and heat similar to what cars had 40 years ago. About damn time.

Where else is GA lacking? Well, take training for instances. Only one owner's group that I am aware of has a highly standardized syllabus coupled with on-line training, widely available for all members, and that is the American Bonanza Society. Other owner's groups need to take a page from their book and develop standardized syllabi.

Insurance is another sore spot. Rates are skyrocketing, and it will be the death of this industry if it is not corrected. Maybe some enterprising individual will completely reimagine the actuary tables and identify those with real, higher risks. Maybe, just maybe, the insurance industry could partner with some innovative training organization and develop a continuation training program paired with insurance that would correct the dismal unintentional gear up accident rate. Maybe,,,,

Areas that have shown some improvement are; a move away from single dry vacuum pump operations for IMC flight, backup alternators becoming more standard, aggressive maintenance programs paired with trend analysis, air-bag enabled seat belt restraint systems, and the big one, whole aircraft parachute systems for SE aircraft, just to name a few. Training needs vast improvement as I eluded to before. Simulator based training for multi-engined aircraft needs to become standard, because you can not effectively and safely practice engine failure after takeoff in the plane. And, it needs to be accomplished on an annual basis in order to see any real, measurable improvement in ME safety.

Airplane need to evolve to the changing market. The Bo is a fantastic plane, but the design has reached its useful limit. It is basically too narrow for good comfort with today's larger pilots and passengers. Wider aircraft such as the Cirrus are owning the market. Cirrus is trying to address is biggest limitation, that of useful load.

There could be an explosion in the GA business, but it will depend on enterprising young entrepreneurs who see the market and jump on the opportunity.

Will GA as an industry step up? I am not so sure. Way too much "not invented here" syndrome.

Chris C.

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Former Baron 58 owner.
Pistons engines are for tractors.

Marc Bourdon


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 19:51 
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Joined: 01/01/10
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Location: Roseburg, Oregon
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Username Protected wrote:
When driverless vehicles are a reality roads will be congested.

You will have to file for a time and route in advance much like IFR today.

It will be ok for a while until you have to file a day in advance to use a particular road or route.

Flow control

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 23:51 
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Username Protected wrote:
When driverless vehicles are a reality roads will be congested.

You will have to file for a time and route in advance much like IFR today.

It will be ok for a while until you have to file a day in advance to use a particular road or route.

With driverless vehicles, wouldn't it be possible to drive them closer to each other at relatively high speeds, thus increasing throughput? Sort of like a train?

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Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, Administrate, Litigate.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Oct 2021, 23:57 
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Joined: 01/24/10
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
Username Protected wrote:
When driverless vehicles are a reality roads will be congested.

You will have to file for a time and route in advance much like IFR today.

It will be ok for a while until you have to file a day in advance to use a particular road or route.

With driverless vehicles, wouldn't it be possible to drive them closer to each other at relatively high speeds, thus increasing throughput? Sort of like a train?[/quote

Temporarily till the roads or tracks are full.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 00:22 
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
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Aircraft: C560V
Username Protected wrote:
With driverless vehicles, wouldn't it be possible to drive them closer to each other at relatively high speeds, thus increasing throughput? Sort of like a train?

There is presently no adopted standard for driverless vehicles to communicate and cooperate. The driverless vehicles will have to work on roads mostly populated by human drivers.

Even after they can communicate and have sufficient numbers, there is not a lot of fault tolerance if cars are bumper to bumper at 70 MPH. Something goes wrong on a car, say blown tire, could lead to a huge pile up, so some safe spacing will be required.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 00:46 
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Joined: 06/25/08
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Company: Latitude Aviation
Location: Los Angeles, CA (KTOA)
Aircraft: 2007 Bonanza G36
Username Protected wrote:
Im getting 1-2 email per week of dealers wanting to buy my TBM with 0 comission...


Hey Marc,

I hope all is well! Those dealers are either getting paid a commission by a buyer to act as their acquisition agent or they are looking to buy your TBM for their own inventory and then resell it at a higher number later. This is a very common practice as you know. I get the same emails/letters/post cards from my competitors for my own plane (and I suspect most people on BeechTalk get similar mail as well).

-Neal

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Latitude Aviation
Specializing in sales/acquisitions services for Bonanzas, Barons, and TBM's


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 01:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
With driverless vehicles, wouldn't it be possible to drive them closer to each other at relatively high speeds, thus increasing throughput? Sort of like a train?

There is presently no adopted standard for driverless vehicles to communicate and cooperate. The driverless vehicles will have to work on roads mostly populated by human drivers.

Even after they can communicate and have sufficient numbers, there is not a lot of fault tolerance if cars are bumper to bumper at 70 MPH. Something goes wrong on a car, say blown tire, could lead to a huge pile up, so some safe spacing will be required.

Mike C.

Understood that in town it will be hard to avoid a mix of driverless and conventional cars, but what if there were a special lane on the freeway just for driverless cars to allow faster speeds and closer spacing?

Where practical, there could be exclusive lanes in town as well, for that matter.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 08:14 
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Joined: 11/25/11
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
Aircraft: Baron, 180,195,J-3
Having been in the quest for a more capable xc aircraft than my 180 and 195 for almost six months now, I can say that Chip is spot on. That being said, "critical" does not extend to the entire market by a long shot, as least not as far as sales go.

The fever of a hot market has indeed spread to just about all sellers. Owners of all models of piston airplanes believe, or want to believe, that their aircraft has appreciated like a 1975 Skylane. Since passing on a new or newer Cirrus because of the price inflation and lack of availability, my focus has been on twins. Most of the airplanes I have inquired about are still for sale. The Baron, especially the 58, is the exception. Good quality, appropriately priced Barons will sell, or have sold. But buyers in that market are not fools and runouts needing any combination of paint/interior/panel are languishing. Even the very clean Navajo that I didn't buy only because the broker had his head up his ass, is still there months later. If I could get a good pre buy, I would still buy that airplane.

So, from my perch, I am seeing the fringes of the seller's market. IT DOES EXIST.

Saturday morning, Karen was checking out tickets to D.C. and saw that AA is reinstituting the standard offer of four non-stops to and from MEM-DCA as of November 2. That eliminates 50% of the reason I had for an airplane.

The sane world is beginning to admit that we are getting back to some state of normalcy. The payments, maintenance bills, and realization of the limitations of GA aircraft are beginning to be exposed to all the "hot to trot" buyers. The next 12 months in the airplane market are going to be very interesting.

As for me, I have a deposit on an airplane that needs a couple of components rebuilt. I won't go so far as saying that my patience paid off because it is a buy of what I want, and could be an unwise purchase.

A large portion of our lives has been in limbo and many markets have responded with temporary fluff. We are working our way out of that, if slowly. Most of those markets will respond with a serious pull back. The big question is, of course, which ones?

Jg

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I've Wrestled My Last Pig.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 09:04 
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Joined: 01/05/11
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Aircraft: 1969 Aerostar 600
Opportunity does not wait for you to make up your mind. It's here today and gone tomorrow, maybe this afternoon. Things happen a lot quicker today than say 20 years ago, or, 10 years for that matter.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 14:03 
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Joined: 11/25/11
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
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Username Protected wrote:
Opportunity does not wait for you to make up your mind. It's here today and gone tomorrow, maybe this afternoon. Things happen a lot quicker today than say 20 years ago, or, 10 years for that matter.


I am glad that I am far too mature to take “hurry up” as sage advice.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 20 Oct 2021, 20:56 
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Joined: 03/06/13
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Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Aircraft: BE350
Username Protected wrote:
I am glad that I am far too mature to take “hurry up” as sage advice.

Jg

I'm with you 100%.

There's an old story of two bulls, father and son, looking down from a hill at a herd of cows. The young bull says: "Let's run down and get one of them". The old bull replies: "No son, let's walk down and get all of them".

Currently in the market for a twin turbine. No rush, I've got lots of other projects to keep me busy. I'll let the craziness pass and have another good look in 2022.


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