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28 May 2022, 02:35 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 19:57 
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Look at hangar rents they are doubling.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 22:05 
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You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich"-glasses. There are very few people out of the 1% that have a) interest in aviation or even the b) means of buying a $4M aircraft.

This is a short, weird frenzy/anomaly - it won't be like this in another 18 months.


That does not address the HUGE demand that Cirrus ($1M) is experiencing - me thinks this market will outlast the 13 month lead time on a new Cirrus.


Cirrus is currently on pace to produce 700+ piston aircraft in 2021. For reference, since 1999 there were only 2 years that cirrus produced more than 600 piston aircraft. 2006 and 2007 (remember then?). 2008 it dropped to 549, (took a while to sink in).

2009-2013 average was ~260.
2014-2016 ~310.
2017-2020 ~365

In 2009 my partners bought the 2005 Sr22 I currently fly, for 180k from a bank that repo’d it. With under 1k hours TT.

Nothing lasts forever.
To paraphrase Mr. Buphay, Be fearful when everyone is greedy so that you can be greedy when everyone is fearful...

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 22:18 
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My good friend JGG says he doesn't see the statistics to back it up...but at *some* of the airports I've been around in the past few months...the traffic is (apparently) way up. Conroe (N of Houston), Destin, FL....several times have had multiple delays due to traffic.

And, it doesn't seem confined to jets/turboprops. Lots of increased SE piston traffic.


I don't have a good source of data. It's just an observation...but it sure seems to be busy.

A couple guys I know are in the market for "other airplanes"....and I would agree that the inventory is low.


I'm based at Blm. Considered a cheap option for the NY NJ area traffic is WAY up this year. Fuel sales alone are triple the historical annual average and we're still in October.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 08:18 
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I’m waiting to see how long it takes for the introduction of 100UL and how it is received not to mention what the pricing is going to be. At the Aerostar convention in Tulsa we had quite an impressive presentation by George Braley regarding history through present day. It all sounded quite good. That being said, I’m still waiting to see what happens once I am actually putting the stuff in my airplane.

Once this happens on a large scale then we will see a true picture of what is going to happen to GA specifically the piston business end.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 08:46 
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Chip,

So everybody is buying a airplane. The market is nuts.

But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?

Tim


Tim,

Funny, but I had the similar thought sometime this early morning. Other than a handful of new from Cirrus and Cessna, we are dealing with the same number of airplanes we had two years ago. Doesn't take much grey matter to figure that out. Three buyers and two sellers created a seller's market. Three sellers and two buyers creates a buyers market.

Know one yet has shown me any real statistics that these newly bought airplanes are being used more by their new owners than by their old.

Same song, second verse.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 09:06 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip,

So everybody is buying a airplane. The market is nuts.

But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?

Tim


Tim,

It all depends on what airport, if you’re at an airport that isn’t near a destination you probably won’t see much of a change, but if you go to the airport at Nashville, Destin, Jackson Hole, just about anywhere near a ski area Colorado, any major city in Texas or anywhere in Florida and the airports are buzzing with private jets.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 09:25 
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JGG is right, the private aircraft market is so finite it doesn’t take much of a shift in demand to greatly change the dynamics. In other words we aren’t seeing 1000 buyers per airplane, we’re seeing ten… but that is still ten times what we saw a few years ago.

I appreciate the perception many have because we’re referring to the aircraft market like its monolithic, when it’s really a group of micro-markets.

When Gerald says many airplanes are dying in the corner of hangars, he’s right. It’s no longer 75% because we have seen a lot of production in the last 15 years, but a huge percentage of the fleet was manufactured prior to 1985 (actually 83) and those aging airframes are starting to fall out of mainstream popularity.

Again, it’s perception, if I’m looking at a 182 then 1980 seems very desirable. If I’m looking at a Learjet, Falcon or Citation… it’s ancient and there’s very little demand. (even though there’s more demand even for those airplanes now than a year ago)

My world… late mode King Airs, PC-12NG’s, CJ1-4, Excel - XLS+, TBM, Hawkers and Challengers… the market is unbelievable tight. It’s been a challenging year for us, it takes a lot longer to get an airplane found and purchased. We’ve added another full time employee to search for airplanes worth buying. I say worth buying because I’m not going to let my clients pay stupid price. This virtually eliminates anything listed on Controller.

Many are saying it will slow down, I hope y’all are right.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


Last edited on 17 Oct 2021, 16:06, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 09:28 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip,

So everybody is buying a airplane. The market is nuts.

But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?

Tim


Tim,

It all depends on what airport, if you’re at an airport that isn’t near a destination you probably won’t see much of a change, but if you go to the airport at Nashville, Destin, Jackson Hole, just about anywhere near a ski area Colorado, any major city in Texas or anywhere in Florida and the airports are buzzing with private jets.


What Chip said. JWN, DTS, hell, even HSV are chock-a-block with private jets. More vacation-y destinations (DTS again, in particular) also have high levels of SE piston traffic.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 11:23 
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Username Protected wrote:
Chip,

So everybody is buying a airplane. The market is nuts.

But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?

Tim


We must remember there is a lot of money out there in the 1%

1% of the US population is in the order of 3 1/2 million people. That is a lot of people with money to buy and operate an aircraft.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Oct 2021, 11:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
I’m waiting to see how long it takes for the introduction of 100UL and how it is received not to mention what the pricing is going to be. At the Aerostar convention in Tulsa we had quite an impressive presentation by George Braley regarding history through present day. It all sounded quite good. That being said, I’m still waiting to see what happens once I am actually putting the stuff in my airplane.

Once this happens on a large scale then we will see a true picture of what is going to happen to GA specifically the piston business end.


I'm a big fan of GAMI and the work they've done on 100UL. They, IMHO, represent the best of GA. You don't take "no, it can't be done" for an answer. You go out, and you work a solution methodically and press-to-test, even if it takes years. There are some out there with sour grapes, and I can't for the life of me figure out why. Maybe they're "long" on e-flight, maybe they had a vested interest in other solutions, or whatever.

Hopefully the RV issue is solved in a similar fashion.

Fingers crossed that there isn't some fly in the ointment. But a no-lead AVGAS is nothing but big news, and something that is easily transportable with no special handling requirements is actually a very big deal. It tentacles into a lot of things, from new engine controls to new oils that lengthen engine life.

Best,
Rich


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2021, 00:13 
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GA is actually poised for a major recovery, if GA as a business can adapt to the changing market. Demand is up, way up. Why? Bottom line; terrible experience flying with the airlines. Almost nothing runs on time, pax are rude, masks are almost universally hated, prices are high, and hell, you can't even get a drink if you want one. Add to that the horrible waste of time TSA has turned into, and well, most will do almost anything to avoid flying on the airlines.

Add to this, a changing work environment. With the work place changes driven by Covid, in most cases you DO NOT have to absolutely, positively be home for work. If you take one or two extra days for more favorable weather, it is not nearly as big a deal as it was 3 years ago. Telecommuting is accepted by many if not most businesses. It doesn't work for all, but it does for many.

Now, comes the hard part. Can GA as an industry step up? I am not so confident in this area. One single engine manufacturer has really changed the market, and that is Cirrus. Fly one of their planes and you get speed, far better room (cockpit width), far better ergonomics, far better comfort with air-conditioning being more or less standard and double doors for easier entry, performance is equal to retractible aircraft of similar horsepower, and you have the chute, which is a game changer for SE operations. Add to that, a complete training package, fully integrated avionics, and nice little touches like a key fob that locks the aircraft when you walk away.

Innovation comes in small bites, and some companies get it. Take GAMI for instance. They developed or improved three fabulous products, the GAMIjector, and the Turbo-Normalizing system paired with LOP operations, and now 100 UL. This in the kind of innovation that changes markets. FTA air conditioning is another innovative product, producing AC and heat similar to what cars had 40 years ago. About damn time.

Where else is GA lacking? Well, take training for instances. Only one owner's group that I am aware of has a highly standardized syllabus coupled with on-line training, widely available for all members, and that is the American Bonanza Society. Other owner's groups need to take a page from their book and develop standardized syllabi.

Insurance is another sore spot. Rates are skyrocketing, and it will be the death of this industry if it is not corrected. Maybe some enterprising individual will completely reimagine the actuary tables and identify those with real, higher risks. Maybe, just maybe, the insurance industry could partner with some innovative training organization and develop a continuation training program paired with insurance that would correct the dismal unintentional gear up accident rate. Maybe,,,,

Areas that have shown some improvement are; a move away from single dry vacuum pump operations for IMC flight, backup alternators becoming more standard, aggressive maintenance programs paired with trend analysis, air-bag enabled seat belt restraint systems, and the big one, whole aircraft parachute systems for SE aircraft, just to name a few. Training needs vast improvement as I eluded to before. Simulator based training for multi-engined aircraft needs to become standard, because you can not effectively and safely practice engine failure after takeoff in the plane. And, it needs to be accomplished on an annual basis in order to see any real, measurable improvement in ME safety.

Airplane need to evolve to the changing market. The Bo is a fantastic plane, but the design has reached its useful limit. It is basically too narrow for good comfort with today's larger pilots and passengers. Wider aircraft such as the Cirrus are owning the market. Cirrus is trying to address is biggest limitation, that of useful load.

There could be an explosion in the GA business, but it will depend on enterprising young entrepreneurs who see the market and jump on the opportunity.

Will GA as an industry step up? I am not so sure. Way too much "not invented here" syndrome.

Chris C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2021, 08:06 
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I think Chris' post has good merit. There simply is not any one source of the current uptick of the market and there won't be a one source cause if it turns.

Having been in the hunt for a twin for several months now, I have an opinion, but I have little certainty with its validity. There are many factors at work here, but I will be shocked if there is not a noticeable withdrawing of the market in the next 12 months.

One small example is my own. Both my children, with my grandchildren, live in the D.C. area. Before covid, I sold my Aerostar because there were 4 non-stops a day, seven days a week, between MEM and DCA. Due to both the fear of contracting covid and AA going to one flight a day, I have had very few visits to my family.

As stated above, I have been in the market. Saturday morning, AA announced it was reinstating the 4 non-stop flights as of November 2.

I was scheduled to travel 400 miles to look at an airplane tomorrow. That trip has been cancelled.

Anyone who doesn't see the adjustments being made to our recent experiences with covid has got a sack over their head.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2021, 08:54 
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Hi Chip,

When you say that aircraft listed on Controller aren't really for sale, what exactly is going on there? Bait and switch?

If I called got that kind of runaround I'd permanently cross that broker off my list. If you have something to sell, then advertise it. If not, then why bother risking your reputation just to get someone on the line?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2021, 09:04 
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Username Protected wrote:
Hi Chip,

When you say that aircraft listed on Controller aren't really for sale, what exactly is going on there? Bait and switch?

If I called got that kind of runaround I'd permanently cross that broker off my list. If you have something to sell, then advertise it. If not, then why bother risking your reputation just to get someone on the line?


It’s a combination of reasons, one it takes weeks, sometimes months to complete a deal once the aircraft is “sold” but not yet closed. This time is due to prebuys, test flights, etc., from the broker’s perspective the airplane isn’t really sold until it is closed.

The other reason and maybe the main reason is that brokers are typically listing agents, so they are selling their services to aircraft owners, they need to be able to show that they have listings, that other people have hired them, the more listings the better.

And yes, some of it is to get calls in hopes of gaining a “buyer” to find an airplane for, they’ll call around to other brokers during the course of normal business and say some version of “I got a guy” in fact it’s common enough that some of us joke that we’re going to start a company called IGG Aviation.

I was a broker for many years, I participated in all of these practices, it’s pretty much SOP. I’d like to see advertising be more straightforward, changing the status on Controller to “deal pending” would help a lot.

The reality is that aircraft sales is a cottage industry and basically unregulated.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 18 Oct 2021, 17:15 
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sim training would be great but they aren't readily available for most pilots, only one i used was a redbird and i wasn't that impressed. How many twin pilots crash because they lost an engine right after take-off? I suspect a small portion of the accidents involving twins but i doubt it causes many accidents. Probably way more lost by ifr accidents(like the 340 recently).


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