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25 May 2022, 13:15 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 23:15 
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Aircraft, yes… houses, no. I am convinced that 80+% of the recently purchased houses were purchased by mega-corporations with COVID money. They have forever altered the rent/own landscape and will have no need to sell while they collect rent.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 23:59 
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Username Protected wrote:
I considered starting a new thread, but thought better of it, because of Mike C.

So, I'll post this here.

Are stupid prices the new normal?

https://www.controller.com/listing/for- ... p-aircraft

This is a 2020 PC-12NGX advertised for $7,990,000.00!!!

That's more than TWO MILLION DOLLARS over what you can order a brand new one for!

Obviously, I don't believe they will sell it at that price, but if they do...

It also creates confusion for uneducated buyers, when we have the level of new to aviation folks that we are seeing right now, it's very confusing to see a legitimate advertisement for an airpalne with an inflated price. If that 2020 is worth $8M... what's a 2019 worth? We just paid sub $5M for one and that was to get a year end closing.

I think the brokers who are encouraging this should remember that this market will correct, and when it does, the guy who paid an extra two million is going to be pretty upset. They should hope he's mentally stable! I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

I saw that PC12 and took a double take. I would love to know what it sells for.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 08:52 
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Username Protected wrote:
the time scale is generally 2 years on average. so in a year or two after the restrictions lift there will be lots of houses in the country, aircraft etc available.


Good riddance to those who didn't know what they were signing up for.

Go Away.

Signed,
A Mountain Town Resident watching his town get ruined by idiots...


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 09:25 
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Username Protected wrote:
the time scale is generally 2 years on average. so in a year or two after the restrictions lift there will be lots of houses in the country, aircraft etc available.


Good riddance to those who didn't know what they were signing up for.

Go Away.

Signed,
A Mountain Town Resident watching his town get ruined by idiots...


there will also be a lot of outdoor recreation equipment available. boats, RV's , cabins, motorcycles, etc. so if you can wait you will be able to buy your toy at a huge discount.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 11:32 
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Username Protected wrote:

there will also be a lot of outdoor recreation equipment available. boats, RV's , cabins, motorcycles, etc. so if you can wait you will be able to buy your toy at a huge discount.



Probably home-gym equipment. My sister already picked up, for free, both a treadmill and elliptical trainer from a neighbor who's gone back to working in the office.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 11:51 
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Joined: 05/01/14
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Username Protected wrote:
Aircraft, yes… houses, no. I am convinced that 80+% of the recently purchased houses were purchased by mega-corporations with COVID money. They have forever altered the rent/own landscape and will have no need to sell while they collect rent.


That’s a misconception. Only a tiny fraction of the single family homes sold were purchased by big rental operations. Now many probably were purchased by taxpayers with forgiven PPP loan money from the COVID hand outs, but those are primary and secondary homes for their wealthy owners.

Most won’t have a NEED to sell, but many will when they find the reality of usage and enjoyment don’t match the dream.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 21:42 
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Username Protected wrote:
Aircraft, yes… houses, no. I am convinced that 80+% of the recently purchased houses were purchased by mega-corporations with COVID money. They have forever altered the rent/own landscape and will have no need to sell while they collect rent.


That’s a misconception. Only a tiny fraction of the single family homes sold were purchased by big rental operations. Now many probably were purchased by taxpayers with forgiven PPP loan money from the COVID hand outs, but those are primary and secondary homes for their wealthy owners.

Most won’t have a NEED to sell, but many will when they find the reality of usage and enjoyment don’t match the dream.


You say it’s a misconception. Based on what?
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 22:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
I can't speak to demand in the piston world, I suspect you are correct. In the turbine world we have seen a huge increase in demand, both in piston owners moving into turbines to completely replace the airlines and in people who are brand new to aviation and needing an airplane because they refuse to fly the airlines and charter is unavailable / unaffordable.


I think this “replace the airlines” nonsense will last until the first round of HSIs for these turbines and the first honest annual for the pistons. Aviating ain’t for the faint of heart.


We just aren’t seeing that. I think it’s easy to look at things from our perspective and much harder from the perspective of someone who is truly wealthy. At least for our clients, they aren’t scrapping to buy a turbine turd. The reality of a HSI isn’t a big deal. I have a client who bought a B200 last year, he’s coming up on double hots and he thinks he’ll upgrade the Proline 21 to G1000NXi at the same time.

If he was concerned at all he would sell the airplane. It is worth $1M more than he paid for it.

The idea that this is primarily driven by a temporary increase of cash in the way of PPP funds is just silly. There’s a lot of very wealthy people in this country, people that have a family net worth of $50M or more… a $5M Pilatus or King Air or Citation isn’t going to change anything and neither is a six figure maintenance visit.

These folks could afford to buy an airplane decades ago, but didn’t. Maybe because or optics, maybe because they are financially conservative. Covid changed that and it isn’t going back to the way it was.

Will some decide it isn’t worth it? Sure… but that will be the exception, not the rule.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Jan 2022, 22:57 
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Literally, that is what everyone buying into a bubble tells themselves.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 00:23 
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I think Chip may have nailed it. At least as far as the turbine crowd goes.


Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 08:32 
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Username Protected wrote:
You say it’s a misconception. Based on what?


Investors (all, not just big companies) bought less than 20% of homes sold in Q3, about 90k total, and that was an all time record high. There are certain sub-markets where investment buyers are a much larger portion, but they are not driving the real estate boom across the country.

There is still a lot of migration happening with record numbers of employees quitting their jobs last year, plus materials and labor shortages hitting construction hard.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 08:50 
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Chip's post accurately defines the real market of those able to afford to replace airline transportation. It is a tiny, tiny, TINY, % of the U.S. populace. Fifty million is a pretty good guess as to the benchmark I think.

Matt's position is accurate as well.

Simply put, there is a line of demarcation between the two statements. The only question is exactly where that line is.

Anyone who thinks travel by 172's, Bonanzas, Navajos, or any other piston airplane or the lower end of the turbine market made up of out-dated worn out, 40 year old jets and TP's is going to have any impact on airline travel is simply daft.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 08:53 
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Add to the daft group, no matter how much money they have to invest, those who think single family rentals are an "across the board" sustainable investment.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 09:24 
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Username Protected wrote:
I have a client who bought a B200 last year, he’s coming up on double hots and he thinks he’ll upgrade the Proline 21 to G1000NXi at the same time.

Chip, is it common for non pilot owners to invest in avionics upgrades? Not speculating on whether this guy is a pilot or not, just wondering if there's a "sweet spot" on the KA line where you would see Garmin upgrades on older birds. For example: 350's would be less likely to have new glass as they are mostly professional flown as compared to 90's which would have a higher concentration of owner flown.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2022, 09:33 
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Username Protected wrote:
You say it’s a misconception. Based on what?


Investors (all, not just big companies) bought less than 20% of homes sold in Q3, about 90k total, and that was an all time record high. There are certain sub-markets where investment buyers are a much larger portion, but they are not driving the real estate boom across the country.

There is still a lot of migration happening with record numbers of employees quitting their jobs last year, plus materials and labor shortages hitting construction hard.


I think it’s very unlikely that data is accurately reported or recorded. That’s just my opinion, though. I think this was a hostile takeover of the real estate market by larger investment corporations and the CCP (not necessarily working together, and having different goals). I think both aren’t foolish enough to do that and report it to whatever sources you’re using.
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