18 Apr 2024, 22:17 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 00:12 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 19252 Post Likes: +23622 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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If I am right, this will appear on a new page and be the correct width.
I did another takeoff analysis, KCPS on Sep 19, weight 13,200 lbs, temp 23, elevation 400 ft, neutral winds.
Book figure is 2550 ft when you do all the interpolations.
Actual result was 1648 ft. This was without a static runup, rolling start.
Had 3400 lbs fuel.
Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 03:07 |
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Joined: 02/15/21 Posts: 2530 Post Likes: +1254
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Username Protected wrote: If I am right, this will appear on a new page and be the correct width.
I did another takeoff analysis, KCPS on Sep 19, weight 13,200 lbs, temp 23, elevation 400 ft, neutral winds.
Book figure is 2550 ft when you do all the interpolations.
Actual result was 1648 ft. This was without a static runup, rolling start.
Had 3400 lbs fuel.
Mike C. You are correct. Are there always 15 posts per page? I seem to recall some pages that have less than 15. Is 2550' the BFL? If it is, then of course your liftoff with all engines operating will be considerably less.
_________________ Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, Administrate, Litigate.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 09:35 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 19252 Post Likes: +23622 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Is 2550' the BFL? It is the takeoff distance from the manual, interpolated as necessary to match actual conditions. Vr should be chosen to be balanced between accel stop and accel go. Quote: If it is, then of course your liftoff with all engines operating will be considerably less. Yes, but the manual doesn't indicate how long the ground roll is, and I can now explicitly measure it using the logged data. This also points out the difference in meaning in the numbers between a turboprop and a jet. My MU2 manual gives me all engines takeoff distances. It does not have accel stop or accel go. It is likely that in some cases, I didn't meet those numbers. Someone operating an MU2 at KSQL, for example, likely doesn't meet those numbers most of the time on takeoff, even if they knew what they were. In the jet, all takeoff numbers are accel stop and accel go. There is no intrinsic reason why a jet must meet those requirements and a turboprop doesn't, it is just a higher standard to which jets are held. The turboprop operator is accepting there is a region in the takeoff where they can neither accel stop or accel go. If they did the same for the jet, which is no less safe and probably more so, distances would be much shorter. To put it in round figures, my Citation V takeoff ground roll is about 1000 ft less than book numbers for both takeoff and landing. Max weights: Takeoff, 0 MSL, ISA, 15,900 lbs: 3160 ft book, about 2200 ft ground roll. Landing, 0 MSL, ISA, 15,200 lbs: 2870 ft book, about 1900 ft ground roll. 1000 nm trip with 2 people: Takeoff, 0 MSL, ISA, 14,000 lbs: 2510 ft book, about 1500 ft ground roll. Landing, 0 MSL, ISA, 11,000 lbs: 2100 ft book, about 1100 ft ground roll. When I transitioned to the Citation V, I expected to be denied some runways I had previously been using for the MU2. That list is, however, much shorter than I expected due to very good numbers. This is the most surprising result of my transition. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 10:48 |
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Joined: 05/23/11 Posts: 260 Post Likes: +24
Aircraft: TBM 700 C2
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Surely an indicator once the thread has gone far off the rails..
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 11:54 |
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Joined: 05/09/18 Posts: 835 Post Likes: +466 Location: Tucson, AZ
Aircraft: 1980 TR182
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Username Protected wrote: This page scrolling is driving me nuts Apparently, an unbroken word like the first post on this page really screws the forum software. That should probably be fixed... Mike C.
I’m curious why someone finds it necessary to post a long string of X’s in the first place. That appears to be what is causing the issue.
_________________ Stan Kartchner Tucson, AZ (KRYN]
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 12:03 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 6781 Post Likes: +7324 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Username Protected wrote: Some guys are just too lucky! My first airplane cost $21,000 and my parents had to get a loan to help me pay for it. 33 years later, I'm flying a Citation V. Very little of that was luck. Mike C.
The harder one works… the luckier they tend to be.
_________________ It’s a brave new world, one where most have forgotten the old ways.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 12:18 |
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Joined: 05/23/13 Posts: 6781 Post Likes: +7324 Company: Jet Acquisitions Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091 chip@jetacq.com
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Inventory levels are still incredibly low but I do get the sense we are seeing less stupidity. I’m not sure what will happen as we get closer to the end of the year and buyers desperate to close for tax purposes. It’s crazy how much our business has changed this year, in the past we would find 3 - 5 good options, one or two that were advertised, two or three off market… we would vet them out and put them on our client’s portal and we’d decide which one to pursue. Now, we expend two or three times the effort and we are lucky to find one or two airplanes worth buying. It’s bizarre. How would you feel if you hired a realtor and they showed you one house! We have a verbal deal on a late model King Air right now, so we’re not even sure the owner will sell the airplane yet… and my client is ecstatic because we have a chance! When I talk to broker friends I can’t mention anything about what we have found, due to concern that someone might let it slip and another buyer will come along and overpay to get the airplane. We don’t dare post anything on social media. The only deal that hasn’t been top secret all summer is the new PC-24… no secret that you can buy one of those, if you want it for Christmas… 2022 I’m hoping that some of the pent up demand has been met, I suspect other buyers have become discouraged and simply given up. I prefer a buyer’s market, I’m ok with a seller’s market… but almost no market has proven to be very challenging. I’m very thankful to be on the buy side, the brokers and listing agents are really starting to feel the crunch with nothing to sell.
_________________ It’s a brave new world, one where most have forgotten the old ways.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 13:31 |
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Joined: 06/02/10 Posts: 7251 Post Likes: +4520 Company: Inscrutable Fasteners, LLC Location: West Palm Beach - F45
Aircraft: Planeless
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Talking with some friends on the piston side, anything remotely turnkey or "needs one thing" is snapped up. Just a quick look on Controller seems to indicate that there isn't much there, and what is there has been sitting quite a while or is foreign/overseas. There may be more planes moving, but it's probably done off-market. It can be a real bear if you are looking for something in particular.
Anything that is remotely popular, 172s/182s/PA-28s, etc are moving fast at high prices. This reminds me of the market around 2005 or so. Good market if you have the money, as some nice birds are coming to market as owners are taking advantage of the opportunity to cash out.
The good news is in this market, some birds are being renovated and refreshed. That will ultimately provide more to choose from.
Guess those folks to pushed their birds in the hangar and padlocked the doors in 2009 can unlock them now.
Best, Rich
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 15:56 |
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Joined: 02/15/21 Posts: 2530 Post Likes: +1254
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Username Protected wrote: Yes, but the manual doesn't indicate how long the ground roll is, and I can now explicitly measure it using the logged data.
Maybe Cessna does that on purpose because they don't want people attempting a takeoff with less than BFL available. What do you plan to use the ground roll numbers for? I would be more interested in knowing the distance and/or time to reach V1. If you have some actual V1 distance against book BFL data points, please share. Quote: My MU2 manual gives me all engines takeoff distances. It does not have accel stop or accel go. It is likely that in some cases, I didn't meet those numbers.
The DA42 piston twin I flew this summer has takeoff distance over 50' and ground roll numbers in the AFM, but no accel stop or accel go. It's almost an acknowledgement that people are sometimes going to take off in a situation where a safe abort or continued takeoff are not possible. Quote: When I transitioned to the Citation V, I expected to be denied some runways I had previously been using for the MU2. That list is, however, much shorter than I expected due to very good numbers. This is the most surprising result of my transition.
I'm not surprised at all. Amazing things happen when you take off a jet at substantially less than MTOW. And you have beaucoup power and that advanced wing on your V. But Do you think we're finally seeing the light at the end of the Covid tunnel? Or has there been a permanent shift in people's tastes away from commercial travel? What do you think Textron's stock price tells us about the airplane market? Agree that either way, a lot of planes are probably going to be refurbished/upgraded and this will give more choices to buyers in the future. Especially Citations!
_________________ Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, Administrate, Litigate.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 26 Sep 2021, 23:46 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 19252 Post Likes: +23622 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: What do you plan to use the ground roll numbers for? To understand the maximum performance my plane is capable of. It also helps to compare the jet to prop planes which aren't measured with the same metrics. Quote: I would be more interested in knowing the distance and/or time to reach V1. If you have some actual V1 distance against book BFL data points, please share. That can be computed. The log gives, every second, precise lat/long, KIAS, Wow state. So you can figure out when you reach V1, Vr, V2, and when you lift off. You then use the lat/long values to compute distances. The takeoffs I gave data on reached V1 about 200-300 ft before liftoff. I can't be more precise than that due to the 1 second sample interval. At 1 second, 100 knots is 170 ft, so fairly coarse measurement. Quote: The DA42 piston twin I flew this summer has takeoff distance over 50' and ground roll numbers in the AFM, but no accel stop or accel go. To define accel stop or accel go, you have to define a specific point at which the engine fails. Typically, light prop airplanes don't have that defined, so there is nothing to measure against. Another issue is that light prop planes often can't fly off the runway with a failed engine, there just isn't enough performance, so there is no accel go possible. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Sep 2021, 14:11 |
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Joined: 11/06/20 Posts: 1299 Post Likes: +1290 Location: Tulsa, OK - KRVS
Aircraft: C501SP
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Username Protected wrote: Do you think we're finally seeing the light at the end of the Covid tunnel? Or has there been a permanent shift in people's tastes away from commercial travel? What do you think Textron's stock price tells us about the airplane market? Well, every news article about some whacko trying to storm a cockpit or getting into a fistfight with a flight attendant further cements my wife's and my decision to make the jump into ownership. And those articles keep coming out.....
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Sep 2021, 18:59 |
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Joined: 12/30/15 Posts: 714 Post Likes: +740 Location: NH; KLEB
Aircraft: M2, erstwhile G58
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Username Protected wrote: Do you think we're finally seeing the light at the end of the Covid tunnel? Or has there been a permanent shift in people's tastes away from commercial travel? What do you think Textron's stock price tells us about the airplane market?
Current P/E ratio of nearly 24 to one.... you tell me.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 11 Oct 2021, 12:38 |
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Joined: 11/19/15 Posts: 1402 Post Likes: +1205 Company: Centurion LV and Eleusis Location: Draper UT KPVU-KVNY
Aircraft: N45AF 501sp Eagle II
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Username Protected wrote: New article about what we've been experiencing for a year. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/private ... ystem.html"September saw nearly 300,000 flights" I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was. I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask. Mike
_________________ InstaGram @Mtpyle company @CenturionLV @eleusisdigitalcanvas race team @strappedracing
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