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18 Apr 2024, 10:42 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Apr 2022, 22:59 
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Joined: 01/18/13
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Location: Tampa, FL
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Back to the original title of this thread…

I saw an article online that the real estate frenzy in Boise (one of the hottest markets in the US) may be cooling.

Any sense out there that the airplane market is softening?

I saw where a used Cirrus sold for more than a factory new, albeit with a 8-12 month wait.

Butch

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2020 Gamebird GB1
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 04:19 
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Username Protected wrote:
Back to the original title of this thread…

I saw an article online that the real estate frenzy in Boise (one of the hottest markets in the US) may be cooling.


We are at 2007 with real estate craziness.

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I don’t know what I don’t know


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 08:20 
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Joined: 11/10/13
Posts: 873
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Location: Kcir
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Username Protected wrote:
I have two guns that I treasure.

First is the Winchester Model 12 that my dad gave me when I was seven. I killed a dove on my first shot with him standing at my side.

The other is the S & W Model 15 that I provided to my mother when my dad died. An intruder broke into her house to rob and kill her (stabbed her sitter 16 times but the sitter lived). She put three 38's in his chest before he could hit the floor.

Beautiful gun. :thumbup:

Jg


Well Sir, just when I think you may be running out of remarkable real life stories… I eagerly await the next. :cheers:


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 08:31 
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Joined: 11/25/11
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
Aircraft: Baron, 180,195,J-3
Mark,

I have not led a remarkable life. I have had the treasure of being surrounded by remarkable people. Remarkable not for their achievements but for their character.

It is hard to impress me these days. I have walked with the best. :bow:

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 08:38 
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Joined: 04/16/12
Posts: 6900
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Location: Keller, TX (KFTW)
Aircraft: '68 36 (E-19)
A wise man once said "If you don't want your jet, give it to me and I'll fly it".

In fact, I've said it many times and so far, no donations.
:shrug:

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 10:33 
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Joined: 01/05/11
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Aircraft: 1969 Aerostar 600,
Username Protected wrote:
Mark,

I have not led a remarkable life. I have had the treasure of being surrounded by remarkable people. Remarkable not for their achievements but for their character.

It is hard to impress me these days. I have walked with the best. :bow:

Jg

I’m impressed John…


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 10:49 
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Joined: 06/02/10
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Company: Inscrutable Fasteners, LLC
Location: West Palm Beach - F45
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Username Protected wrote:
A wise gentleman told me “You are a slave to your possessions “.


He was a very wise gentleman.

Jg


I heard another say "You never see Hearses with trailer hitches"...

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 11:30 
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Joined: 05/30/17
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“You can’t take it with you…” “Live like you’re dying…” “Seize the day…” “Money doesn’t buy happiness, but it can buy you some fun…and it beats being poor.” Or what my Dad told me when I was 14 and he decided we needed to have “the talk.” “Son,” he said while shaving, “there’s no reason for a girl to get pregnant with a drugstore on every corner.” Lol
That was the extent of our ‘birds and bees’ discussion… great guy and I miss him; he would have been 110 last week (made it almost to 97 like a lot of other WW2 vets).

In any case, I decided to retire a couple years ago (effective at the end of this year) when I realized that I had “enough” to live comfortably, buy and fly airplanes (as noted above, not to buy or fly ALL of them but at least SOME of them). Told my kids not to expect much when I go. Even tried to have Chip help me spend some of my money … *laughing* but wound up with a friend instead of the CJ or Mustang I thought I wanted, and went another jet route.

As my 27-year old daughter told me when she visited me last December, “Dad, I’ve known you all my life (duh lol), but this is the happiest I have ever seen you.” And, you know, she’s right. Once you give up the need to “get more,” life gets a lot better and you get a LOT happier!

Cheers all and have a great holiday weekend!


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 17 Apr 2022, 13:02 
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Joined: 11/25/11
Posts: 9168
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
Aircraft: Baron, 180,195,J-3
Username Protected wrote:
“You can’t take it with you…” “Live like you’re dying…” “Seize the day…” “Money doesn’t buy happiness, but it can buy you some fun…and it beats being poor.” Or what my Dad told me when I was 14 and he decided we needed to have “the talk.” “Son,” he said while shaving, “there’s no reason for a girl to get pregnant with a drugstore on every corner.” Lol
That was the extent of our ‘birds and bees’ discussion… great guy and I miss him; he would have been 110 last week (made it almost to 97 like a lot of other WW2 vets).

In any case, I decided to retire a couple years ago (effective at the end of this year) when I realized that I had “enough” to live comfortably, buy and fly airplanes (as noted above, not to buy or fly ALL of them but at least SOME of them). Told my kids not to expect much when I go. Even tried to have Chip help me spend some of my money … *laughing* but wound up with a friend instead of the CJ or Mustang I thought I wanted, and went another jet route.

As my 27-year old daughter told me when she visited me last December, “Dad, I’ve known you all my life (duh lol), but this is the happiest I have ever seen you.” And, you know, she’s right. Once you give up the need to “get more,” life gets a lot better and you get a LOT happier!

Cheers all and have a great holiday weekend!


Amen brother. :peace:

I'm sitting here conspiring with my BT friends while Karen is playing "Cry Me A River" on her Steinway. When she finishes, it's my turn. I'd rather be right here than in the left seat of any airplane ever made.

Jg

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Waste no time with fools. They have nothing to lose.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Apr 2022, 18:23 
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Joined: 12/30/15
Posts: 714
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Location: NH; KLEB
Aircraft: M2, erstwhile G58
Username Protected wrote:
Back to the original title of this thread…

I saw an article online that the real estate frenzy in Boise (one of the hottest markets in the US) may be cooling.


We are at 2007 with real estate craziness.



Scary thing is that we may be at 2007-2008 with real estate craziness.
That is likely to be compounded with early 1980s interest and mortgage rates
as the Fed attempts, likely too late, to reign in inflation.

People forget that we had double digit long term rates for quite a while.
If they return, all bets are off.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Apr 2022, 19:37 
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Joined: 03/28/17
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Location: N. California
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Username Protected wrote:
Back to the original title of this thread…

I saw an article online that the real estate frenzy in Boise (one of the hottest markets in the US) may be cooling.


We are at 2007 with real estate craziness.


And we may be in the same boat with used airplane prices, I think a perfect storm is brewing but would like to be proven wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Apr 2022, 20:54 
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Joined: 01/12/10
Posts: 403
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Location: Dallas, Texas
Aircraft: Piaggio P180, TTx
No question a 25% discount is coming to aircraft pricing - and some 50%.... but when is the question? This year? Next year? The year after? For some of us those years are years we cant get back flying the airplanes we want to fly. There aren't any bumper hitches on hearses.

As someone buying an airplane right now thats a pretty scary thought. For those buyers like me the best option is to

1. Buy less airplane than you can for the best price you can.
2. Do NOT finance it. If you can pay for it buy it, if you cant...wait.
3. Make sure the airplane you are buying will serve your needs for the next 10 years allowing you to overcome any short term crash.
4. Buy an airplane that has upgrade options to allow yourself ways to improve it as time goes along prolonging your need to take that inevitable hit when you sell.
5, Hope for the best! But remember, its better to be flying an overpriced airplane than sitting on the ground looking at Controller.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Apr 2022, 23:20 
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Aircraft: In market
I’m in market and flying/riding in a bunch of different planes with a 10 year plan. I agree something has to happen but I fear it will be ugly. I’m not a buyer in this market but I’m planning.

Side note: Mark, did you find a pilot to ferry your new bird?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 21 Apr 2022, 23:48 
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Joined: 08/16/15
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Location: Ogden UT
Aircraft: Piper M600
Username Protected wrote:
2. Do NOT finance it. If you can pay for it buy it, if you cant...wait.


Why not? Interest rates are low, inflation is coming. If you can have somebody else buy it for you and you rent it at low interest rates, why not? In a few years the interest on that loan is going to look spectacular, and the inflation will make the principal on that loan look trivial. Use your cash to do something useful, invest in something that will grow at a rate in excess of inflation. I have never understood that philosophy. Almost think it is an ingrained sacred cow, but a fallacy, propagated by financial types. :scratch:

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Apr 2022, 02:45 
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Joined: 01/12/10
Posts: 403
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Location: Dallas, Texas
Aircraft: Piaggio P180, TTx
Username Protected wrote:
2. Do NOT finance it. If you can pay for it buy it, if you cant...wait.


Why not? Interest rates are low, inflation is coming. If you can have somebody else buy it for you and you rent it at low interest rates, why not? In a few years the interest on that loan is going to look spectacular, and the inflation will make the principal on that loan look trivial. Use your cash to do something useful, invest in something that will grow at a rate in excess of inflation. I have never understood that philosophy. Almost think it is an ingrained sacred cow, but a fallacy, propagated by financial types. :scratch:


In bad economic times the airplane is the first to go… but no one’s buying. So now you have a payment when you don’t need or want one and might need the money to help feed your failing business that you speak about (you know, that investment) … when the bad times come those with less debt survive and those with no debt profit. But what do I know? I’ve only been through 4 of them.

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