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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 03:19 
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Thanks for the European perspective.
Arguably, the Amtrak northeast corridor provides a measure of viable interurban transportation, but obviously not quite at the level that you describe.
It’s hard to imagine at what point the US could have established long distance passenger rail to rival Europe’s system. In other areas of the country the long distances between business centers would make even a 250 km/hr train trip a tough sell. This is disregarding the enormous capital investment that would be required to establish the dedicated track necessary for such runs.


I'm actually in the TGV as I write this and the average speed is 310KPH .

Compared to Airline travel, when you factor in 90 minutes to board and 30 minutes to de-plane & collect baggage, average is 2 Hours for the 1st Mile . Thus a short run of say 500km is at least 1 hour, block. Airlines are only faster than bullet trains for runs of over 1,000km ( 620 statute miles) and that's in a perfect world. (BTW, the french TGV IS capable of speeds of over 570 kph !)

In practice, the trains are far more punctual than airlines could ever dream of, so that needs to be factored in as well.

As to the "enormous capital investment" : The World's Richest Country can't afford it ? You can't be serious ! For reference, the State of California has a GPD that is just about equal to France, yet zero high speed trains in service ! (BTW: San Diego - LA - San Jose - San Francisco is the perfect match for a bullet train service)

Did you know that the Chinese have already implemented over 5,800 miles !
From Wiki: "China has the world's largest network with 9,356 km (5,813 mi) of High-Speed Rail track. It also includes the world's longest line from Beijing to Guangzhou of 2,298 km (1,428 mi)."

The problem in the US is SYSTEMIC : Nobody wants to pool their money (pay taxes) to fund it so you're stuck with a fragmented & archaic infrastructure, much the same as Public Health in the US, but I digress.

PS: Full disclosure - I'm was born & raised in SoCal ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 11:09 
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Joined: 07/29/12
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Username Protected wrote:
Thanks for the European perspective.
Arguably, the Amtrak northeast corridor provides a measure of viable interurban transportation, but obviously not quite at the level that you describe.
It’s hard to imagine at what point the US could have established long distance passenger rail to rival Europe’s system. In other areas of the country the long distances between business centers would make even a 250 km/hr train trip a tough sell. This is disregarding the enormous capital investment that would be required to establish the dedicated track necessary for such runs.


I'm actually in the TGV as I write this and the average speed is 310KPH .

Compared to Airline travel, when you factor in 90 minutes to board and 30 minutes to de-plane & collect baggage, average is 2 Hours for the 1st Mile . Thus a short run of say 500km is at least 1 hour, block. Airlines are only faster than bullet trains for runs of over 1,000km ( 620 statute miles) and that's in a perfect world. (BTW, the french TGV IS capable of speeds of over 570 kph !)

In practice, the trains are far more punctual than airlines could ever dream of, so that needs to be factored in as well.

As to the "enormous capital investment" : The World's Richest Country can't afford it ? You can't be serious ! For reference, the State of California has a GPD that is just about equal to France, yet zero high speed trains in service ! (BTW: San Diego - LA - San Jose - San Francisco is the perfect match for a bullet train service)

Did you know that the Chinese have already implemented over 5,800 miles !
From Wiki: "China has the world's largest network with 9,356 km (5,813 mi) of High-Speed Rail track. It also includes the world's longest line from Beijing to Guangzhou of 2,298 km (1,428 mi)."

The problem in the US is SYSTEMIC : Nobody wants to pool their money (pay taxes) to fund it so you're stuck with a fragmented & archaic infrastructure, much the same as Public Health in the US, but I digress.

PS: Full disclosure - I'm was born & raised in SoCal ;)


Nobody wants to pool their money? What's your effective tax rate in CA? How many businesses and jobs would be destroyed for an idealistic solution? Eminent domain abuse is worse and worse today, with the corruption that is evident across our countries different governments. Sorry but, I'm always suspect when I read someone referencing how China is doing it better.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 11:23 
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Joined: 11/08/12
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Username Protected wrote:
(BTW: San Diego - LA - San Jose - San Francisco is the perfect match for a bullet train service)

High-Speed rail for California, what a great idea! Wonder if anyone has thought of that

It seems to be going so well, after having spent several times the projected total cost so far, they are now re-focusing on completing just the segment from Merced to Bakersfield - those noted population center destinations - maybe by 2030…

:bang:

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 14:50 
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Airlines haven't ever improved? Lookup the fatal accident rates from the 40's through the 70's vs today. Lookup the hijacking rates through the 60's and 70's. Compare prices and flight availability from pre-deregulation to today.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 15:59 
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Joined: 04/05/22
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Username Protected wrote:
(BTW: San Diego - LA - San Jose - San Francisco is the perfect match for a bullet train service)

High-Speed rail for California, what a great idea! Wonder if anyone has thought of that

It seems to be going so well, after having spent several times the projected total cost so far, they are now re-focusing on completing just the segment from Merced to Bakersfield - those noted population center destinations - maybe by 2030…

:bang:


I think this speaks a lot more the how poorly our government has handled a simple task than it does to the validity of the idea :shrug:
Most every other developed country in the world seems to be able to do it just fine.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 16:13 
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Username Protected wrote:
I think this speaks a lot more the how poorly our government has handled a simple task than it does to the validity of the idea :shrug:
Most every other developed country in the world seems to be able to do it just fine.

Fair point. But we also have different conditions than most other countries, e.g. Europe. We tend to have longer distances.

But I agree, we shoot ourselves in the foot with the amount of legal and social hurdles we place on ourselves. Makes doing anything get ridiculous. Some is unique to California, some less so.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 16:18 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Username Protected wrote:

I think this speaks a lot more the how poorly our government has handled a simple task than it does to the validity of the idea :shrug:
Most every other developed country in the world seems to be able to do it just fine.


Our government is a lot more corrupt that most developed countries.

Plus, everyone in Congress is already a multimillionaire, why would they need a high speed rail system?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 16:22 
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Joined: 01/24/10
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
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The manager who was hired to run our California bullet train project had a Cirrus when he got the job. Now he has a Citation Mustang?? Go figure.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 17:04 
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Interesting article on rail US vs ROW

https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7b5mn/ ... -in-the-us


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 17:23 
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Joined: 10/05/11
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Location: Milwaukee, WI (KMKE)
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Username Protected wrote:
Airlines haven't ever improved? Lookup the fatal accident rates from the 40's through the 70's vs today. Lookup the hijacking rates through the 60's and 70's. Compare prices and flight availability from pre-deregulation to today.


That is an interesting thought experiment.

What happened to lower the fatal accident rates?

What happened to reduce the hijackings?

What happened to reduce prices and increase availability?

Are you saying de-regulation was the answer to all 3?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 17:36 
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Joined: 04/28/21
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PS: Full disclosure - I'm was born & raised in SoCal ;)


Something something eventually run out of other people's money something something.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 17:38 
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Joined: 05/23/13
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Username Protected wrote:
The manager who was hired to run our California bullet train project had a Cirrus when he got the job. Now he has a Citation Mustang?? Go figure.


When he leaves office he’ll buy a CJ4!

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 17:45 
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Joined: 08/05/16
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Company: Tack Mobile
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Username Protected wrote:
From Jan->Oct last year, I had one cold call about my plane.

I had a few at the end of last year as people hunted for depreciation.

I've had three in the last 10 days.

Did I miss a memo?



Net Jets and the like don’t have cards, leases, or shares available in the light jet spectrum right now. The renewal prices on those that are being given the option to renew, I have heard, are upwards of 50% higher than pre pandemic.

Lots of people that started flying private, don’t want to go back to carriers. Their options are: 1. Pay more for card (if even available) 2. Go into a lease or fractional (again limited availability) 3. Buy their own plane, hire a management company and hope depreciation and maintenance is less than a fractional.

The memo is: Not enough availability with the fractionals, lets go see if we can get our own jet and realize some economies of ownership.


NetJets has offered a 25 hour card for awhile now, I believe they are available on the Phenom as far as I know. I think they recently changed it to a 25 hour lease. They are a terrible value from what I can tell.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 19:57 
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Joined: 01/30/09
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Aircraft: Columbia 400
Username Protected wrote:
Now when you include CA and federal taxes on the salary you need for that CA house.

A $300K silicon valley salary is about, what, $150K in taxes?

Mike C.



Yup. A little over half is take-home, with no retirement nor health insurance taken out. Gets a bit better once social security is paid for the year, but that takes longer every year.

If I sold my Silicon Valley house, I couldn't afford to buy another one like it.

My wife is looking forward to grand babies, so I guess I'll be here working until they're all grown up or her kids move out of state.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2023, 20:05 
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Joined: 01/16/10
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Location: Bozeman, MT
Username Protected wrote:

NetJets has offered a 25 hour card for awhile now, I believe they are available on the Phenom as far as I know. I think they recently changed it to a 25 hour lease. They are a terrible value from what I can tell.


NetJets is being selective about who can get the card. There are, limited to no, leases or fractional shares right now. They don't have enough planes. They really want you to buy on lease or fractional to guarantee future cash flow on a very expensive asset they have to buy and manage. But again, no planes to sell. From what I heard from a fellow pilot in the industry, NetJets is picking up every 3rd-4th Phenom Embraer is making (Don't know how true, but could believe it).

Cards from NetJets isn't a bad value if that's all you can get. For many, consistency of service and availability is important when you are dropping $10k+ an hour.

Go look at the reviews and financials of Wheels Up. The more customers they bring on, the faster their burn rate - check their financials, you'll see. My speculation is Wheels Up is out of cash and reorganizing -maybe out of business (hope not), within a year.

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