Yeah, I'm with Chip! Get out of here with your "data," nerds. Now behold my anecdotes.

-J

Yeah, I'm with Chip! Get out of here with your "data," nerds. Now behold my anecdotes.

-J

Come to East TN and go flying with me and I will show you what I am talking about. I have been flying for 35 years so I have a pretty accurate frame of reference. I remember not so long ago when you could fly from TYS to MBT or BNA and the radio was silent other than hand offs--this has completely changed. The traffic volume around DKX and MOR is greater than it was in the 80s. I am very thankful for ADSB. The ramps are full at the small airports when before they were not. Some of this could be due to the migration to TN but the number of flight schools has gone way up and they are all flying.

Both total air traffic and commercial air traffic exceeds pre-pandemic levels now.

See these graphs: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

Not to be the fly in the ointment on this, but I think there were still a lot of operations in 2019 without ADS-B (which I believe is how FlightRadar gets its data).

Not to be the fly in the ointment on this, but I think there were still a lot of operations in 2019 without ADS-B (which I believe is how FlightRadar gets its data).

I appreciate how there's a desire to see real quantifiable data and dismiss any anecdotal input. But, I don't need a scientist or a statistician to tell me the sky is blue... though the former can tell you why it is blue, so he serves some useful purpose. No offense to any statisticians on here, I am sure you're nice people but data is like water, it's real but who knows about the quality.

As someone who spends all day every day talking to owners, pilots, managers, maintenance facilities, FBO's... who visits airports across the country regularly, air traffic is UP. Period.

Considering that the entire fleet is expanding at a rate that exceeds attrition, you'd have to have usage per aircraft dropping to see a decline and there's just no way that is happening.

Just NetJets and Wheels Up alone are responsible for a huge increase in turbine aircraft operations.

Our small rural airport was a ghost town 7-8 years ago, maybe two aircraft landings on a good day.
It's moderately active now, 25-30 landings/day. New terminal and fuel depot being built. Totally different place.
Industry in the area hasn't changed in that time.

Jack, your airport is gaining another turbine as we speak! I agree, and Chip is 100% correct. But let’s face it, the real issue is that activity is booming in certain places and not in others. There are some clear reasons.

I hope we aren’t relying on Wheels Up for long term industry growth…

I hope we aren’t relying on Wheels Up for long term industry growth…

The airport I fly out of KRHV Reid Hillview San Jose, CA is on life support. Dead.

I have to disagree with you Chip on the continuation of low inventory into eternity. Textron is making more aircraft. More Citations are rolling off the line, for example. Daher and Piper and Epic are as well. Cirrus as fast as they can.

Gathering together a lot of the information people have brought to this thread, I think what we are seeing is a SHIFT in general aviation demographics which is the result of numerous factors including the pandemic, a lot of senior airline pilots retiring, the airlines being a total mess, the resulting boom in NetJets and similar carriers creating demand for airframes at the top of the food chain and pilots, government money influx to some people including those who want to chase a job at the airlines or NetJets type business.

All of that boils down to two significant factors in my opinion.

First, a pull from the top (Citations, Gulfstreams, Challengers being in high demand, and the need for pilots for them), with wealthy people wanting to travel that way instead of the cattle car airlines.

Second, a push from the bottom (flight schools) gobbling up every trainer they can find, to support their new clients who want into the industry. When they bought all those 152s, 172s, Archers etc, the sellers went on to buy Bonanzas, 210s, and Mooneys. Those sellers went on to buy JetProps, TBMs, and King Airs. Those sellers are looking for the aircraft gobbled up by NetJets and the copycats. I know I could sell my Bo for 20% more than I bought it for 3 years ago.

So, in summary, I don’t think there’s more flying going on except at the extremes of the flight schools and the private charters and fractional owners.

Oh, and the biggest factor? My guess is the wives. They REALLY didn’t like flying commercial during the pandemic so the stories I hear is that many wives went from “why do we own a small airplane?” to “”we have to keep that airplane in case we need to get somewhere and the airlines fail or are unsafe”.

Yeah, if you represent the high end turbine market I’m sure it’s tough. But the lower levels are just moving really fast. Inventory comes and goes as everyone trades up. But I predict it’s going to settle down now and return to sanity by the end of the year.

Only if demand continued to increase at the highest echelon (more millionaires flying private) would it make sense that low inventory is going to be a constant. The shift has happened. The rich are flying private, everything else is adjusting. It’s going to be ok.

I remember watching a Social Flight video in mid 2021 where buddy interviewed the president of Foreflight (not too sure exactly who he was). The foreflight guy said that their data said GA was busy as hell and growing fairly quickly in 2021. He based his position on the amount of flight plans filed through the app. I don’t think flight training can be the explanation on that data point. It would be interesting to see if that trend continued.

My survey sample of one speaking to lots of owner pilots at Airventure last year was they were flying more and so were their cohort at their airports. And most I talked to, me included, upgraded to a larger faster aircraft. I went from a 172 to my current 182 in 2020.