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19 May 2022, 18:39 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2022, 01:49 
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Company: Jet Acquisitions, LLC
Location: Franklin, TN 615-739-9091
The good news is that things seem to have calmed down a little. I’m not saying there’s magically inventory again… and yes, if it’s on Controller it’s probably sold, over-priced or has a story. But, the end of the year rush to pay too much for an airplane because you’d rather give that money to a fellow aviator than the IRS is over. (for now)

The market is still hot, but it isn’t stupid. The last couple of months have been stupid.

Funny story, mid December I look up and say “oh crap, we better buy something quick so we can write it off” in my case it was a company vehicle, but it was humorous and enlightening to experience what my clients feel, no inventory, everything is overpriced. I had to compromise and felt lucky to get what I wanted.

Strange times.

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It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2022, 09:45 
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They call it a life limit. I thought life limitations were mandatory regardless of the inspection program you are using.


Only if it was a life limit at certification. After that you require an airworthiness directive. Otherwise private equity firms could go around buying up type certificates and adding life limits.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 08 Jan 2022, 10:00 
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Thanks Terry!

Not many folks get Mike C. to admit he was wrong!

Thanks Mike for your humility.


http://youtu.be/WkqgDoo_eZE


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2022, 00:52 
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Now that the end of year tax driven purchases are done. Are aircraft inventory levels still critically low?


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2022, 06:56 
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Location: KGNF, Grenada, MS
Aircraft: Baron, 180,195,J-3
That's OK Mike, I was wrong once. :bugeye:

Jg :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2022, 10:12 
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Username Protected wrote:
Now that the end of year tax driven purchases are done. Are aircraft inventory levels still critically low?


In a word, yes, there’s still basically nothing for sale, we are seeing airplanes come on the market but most are at prices that would make last December blush. We are at an interesting juncture. The tax factor isn’t (for now) and I seriously doubt people are willing to overpay to the tune of a MILLION dollars, without that being immediately offset by a tax burden. As a result I suspect we’ll see some of these airplanes sit. When that happens it will chill the market, I suspect we’ll see prices quickly retreat to Q3 2021 levels.

There’s still very little inventory, some will hope to take advantage of that and will leave the high priced airplanes advertised. It will skew the perception of the average Controller lurker, but be ignored by serious buyers.

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Chip

It's not so much what we do not know, it's that much of what we are being told just isn't so.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2022, 21:50 
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Joined: 03/28/17
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Location: N. California
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Username Protected wrote:
Now that the end of year tax driven purchases are done. Are aircraft inventory levels still critically low?


In a word, yes, there’s still basically nothing for sale, we are seeing airplanes come on the market but most are at prices that would make last December blush. We are at an interesting juncture. The tax factor isn’t (for now) and I seriously doubt people are willing to overpay to the tune of a MILLION dollars, without that being immediately offset by a tax burden. As a result I suspect we’ll see some of these airplanes sit. When that happens it will chill the market, I suspect we’ll see prices quickly retreat to Q3 2021 levels.

There’s still very little inventory, some will hope to take advantage of that and will leave the high priced airplanes advertised. It will skew the perception of the average Controller lurker, but be ignored by serious buyers.


My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2022, 22:35 
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
Location: KEHR
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My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D

No one needs to advertise right now. I get purchase inquiries on my Citation V literally every week.

If a plane is advertised, it is either not really for sale or there is something seriously wrong with it.

4th quarter 2020, 27 Citation Vs for sale on Controller.com. Today, only 4 listed, all of which have various issues.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Jan 2022, 12:11 
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Username Protected wrote:

My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D


anecdotally, I can say that there are some sellers and brokers that have gotten lazy in this market environment. There are multiple Barons listed for sale that aren't actually available (because they're under contract) or where queries for things like logs get answers like "the owner doesn't want to provide them, sorry". If you can sell your plane without trying hard, well, some people won't try hard. This definitely makes me appreciate the proactive and honest brokers all the more.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Jan 2022, 13:00 
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Inventory levels are going up!

Lots of airplanes being added to Controller. There’s more new listings in the last week or two then we’ve seen in the last several months.


Please login or Register for a free account via the link in the red bar above to download files.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 19 Jan 2022, 13:01 
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Username Protected wrote:

My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D


anecdotally, I can say that there are some sellers and brokers that have gotten lazy in this market environment. There are multiple Barons listed for sale that aren't actually available (because they're under contract) or where queries for things like logs get answers like "the owner doesn't want to provide them, sorry". If you can sell your plane without trying hard, well, some people won't try hard. This definitely makes me appreciate the proactive and honest brokers all the more.


I'm curious as to what percentage of sellers would put their aircraft logs in a public domain. My logs are available to anybody interested enough to come see the plane in person, which means prospective buyers would be in a local/regional market when I sell.

I did a lot of looking for my plane in the local/regional market , flying with my A&P to look at planes, but the one I bought I made the deal with the seller that if he flew the plane to my airport for inspection, 150 miles, if I didn't buy it I'd pay his round trip fuel, but I bought it.

We went down to my bank and did the cash transaction, very simple. For an airplane like a 182 or similar single-engine plane , especially models in demand, I don't see the value of a broker, but for more expensive, larger planes probably broker handling is warranted. With or without a broker, a good pre-purchase inspection by a mechanic that knows the type is always a good idea.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 16:08 
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Username Protected wrote:
My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D

No one needs to advertise right now. I get purchase inquiries on my Citation V literally every week.

If a plane is advertised, it is either not really for sale or there is something seriously wrong with it.

4th quarter 2020, 27 Citation Vs for sale on Controller.com. Today, only 4 listed, all of which have various issues.

Mike C.



"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 16:08 
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Joined: 03/28/17
Posts: 4912
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Location: N. California
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Username Protected wrote:
My intuition tells me that some brokers hate Controller......direct sales. :D

No one needs to advertise right now. I get purchase inquiries on my Citation V literally every week.

If a plane is advertised, it is either not really for sale or there is something seriously wrong with it.

4th quarter 2020, 27 Citation Vs for sale on Controller.com. Today, only 4 listed, all of which have various issues.

Mike C.



"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 16:29 
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Username Protected wrote:


"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.


Because of a much needed correction? No, that’s not how this works


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2022, 18:12 
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Joined: 05/29/13
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Company: Easy Ice, LLC
Location: Marquette, Michigan; Scottsdale, AZ, Telluride
Aircraft: C510,C185,C310,R66
Username Protected wrote:


"No one needs to advertise right now."

In just a few weeks into this year the stock market has nose dived. The "wealth effect" of strong returns and 401k income has reversed , and the negative wealth effect will cause selling in the aircraft market. Then we will see a reverse in inventories and increased advertising.


I suspect that may be true for some lower end aircraft. 172's et al. But in general, I think the market remains white hot. Peope don't want to travel commerically and the amount of "new " aircraft is not enough to cover demand.

BWTFDIK?

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