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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 15:59 
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 16:10 
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I figure even Basic Med is a no go.


If Mr. Magoo can have a drivers license, BasicMed should be no problem. However, the lack of brail on most self serve fuel pumps might be a bit restricting.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 16:13 
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Is that the Deluxe model with the panel mounted pull-starter?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 16:23 
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Username Protected wrote:

I figure even Basic Med is a no go.


If Mr. Magoo can have a drivers license, BasicMed should be no problem. However, the lack of brail on most self serve fuel pumps might be a bit restricting.


I’m thinking braille altimeter so I can “feel” how high I am.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 17:31 
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I’m thinking braille altimeter so I can “feel” how high I am.

That reminds me of a Six Million Dollar Man episode (what kind of plane will $6m get me, Chip?) in which Steve Austin, temporarily blinded, broke the glass on the steam gauges and used his fingers to feel the positions of the instrument hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 18:16 
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I'm not too sure about the passenger's wife with the look on her face. I've seen that look on my wife's face before, and it usually means "you got me into this, and just wait 'til we get home." ;)

I'm thinking that's his grandson but ya never know anymore!

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2022, 18:23 
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Steve Austin, temporarily blinded, broke the glass on the steam gauges and used his fingers to feel the positions of the instrument hands.

Alternate data delivery method! Yet another way in which steam gauges are safer than glass panels.

(Says the man with not a single piece of spinning metal on his panel. Sigh.)

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 12:21 
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I considered starting a new thread, but thought better of it, because of Mike C.

So, I'll post this here.

Are stupid prices the new normal?

https://www.controller.com/listing/for- ... p-aircraft

This is a 2020 PC-12NGX advertised for $7,990,000.00!!!

That's more than TWO MILLION DOLLARS over what you can order a brand new one for!

Obviously, I don't believe they will sell it at that price, but if they do...

It also creates confusion for uneducated buyers, when we have the level of new to aviation folks that we are seeing right now, it's very confusing to see a legitimate advertisement for an airpalne with an inflated price. If that 2020 is worth $8M... what's a 2019 worth? We just paid sub $5M for one and that was to get a year end closing.

I think the brokers who are encouraging this should remember that this market will correct, and when it does, the guy who paid an extra two million is going to be pretty upset. They should hope he's mentally stable! I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 13:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
I considered starting a new thread, but thought better of it, because of Mike C.

So, I'll post this here.

Are stupid prices the new normal?

https://www.controller.com/listing/for- ... p-aircraft

This is a 2020 PC-12NGX advertised for $7,990,000.00!!!

That's more than TWO MILLION DOLLARS over what you can order a brand new one for!

Obviously, I don't believe they will sell it at that price, but if they do...

It also creates confusion for uneducated buyers, when we have the level of new to aviation folks that we are seeing right now, it's very confusing to see a legitimate advertisement for an airpalne with an inflated price. If that 2020 is worth $8M... what's a 2019 worth? We just paid sub $5M for one and that was to get a year end closing.

I think the brokers who are encouraging this should remember that this market will correct, and when it does, the guy who paid an extra two million is going to be pretty upset. They should hope he's mentally stable! I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.


The realtor/appraiser/lender racket have been getting away with that for decades.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 15:14 
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It's hard for me to believe that someone shopping for a near new PC-12 wouldn't check to see what a new, new one costs. Are there new ones in inventory?

If no one needs it that bad, it will sit. Like the grossly overpriced stuff listed on here.

I'm in the camp that the base demand hasn't really changed and that once the reality of the costs of ownership, lack of need and limitations of small airplane utility make themselves evident, we'll see the end of this bubble in the piston world.

I'll never need to worry about the price of a jet.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 16:15 
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I'm in the camp that the base demand hasn't really changed and that once the reality of the costs of ownership, lack of need and limitations of small airplane utility make themselves evident, we'll see the end of this bubble in the piston world.

I'll never need to worry about the price of a jet.


I can't speak to demand in the piston world, I suspect you are correct. In the turbine world we have seen a huge increase in demand, both in piston owners moving into turbines to completely replace the airlines and in people who are brand new to aviation and needing an airplane because they refuse to fly the airlines and charter is unavailable / unaffordable.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 16:18 
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I can't speak to demand in the piston world, I suspect you are correct. In the turbine world we have seen a huge increase in demand, both in piston owners moving into turbines to completely replace the airlines and in people who are brand new to aviation and needing an airplane because they refuse to fly the airlines and charter is unavailable / unaffordable.


I think this “replace the airlines” nonsense will last until the first round of HSIs for these turbines and the first honest annual for the pistons. Aviating ain’t for the faint of heart.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 17:32 
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Username Protected wrote:

I'm curious as to what percentage of sellers would put their aircraft logs in a public domain. My logs are available to anybody interested enough to come see the plane in person, which means prospective buyers would be in a local/regional market when I sell.


I'm not going to buy an aircraft unless I can review the logs first, period. Others may have a different philosophy. Some sellers and brokers put digital logs up for open public access; others provide access on request from a serious buyer. The sellers who aren't willing to do this have, in my experience, either been unmotivated or have had something to hide. It's way more efficient for both parties if I can look at the logs first without physically traveling to see the plane.

(of course, as was said later in this thread, there's no one market-- piston singles, twins, SETPs, multi TPs, and jets all have their own market rhythms. My experience is all with piston singles and twins so YMMV)


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 19:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
I can't speak to demand in the piston world, I suspect you are correct. In the turbine world we have seen a huge increase in demand, both in piston owners moving into turbines to completely replace the airlines and in people who are brand new to aviation and needing an airplane because they refuse to fly the airlines and charter is unavailable / unaffordable.


I think this “replace the airlines” nonsense will last until the first round of HSIs for these turbines and the first honest annual for the pistons. Aviating ain’t for the faint of heart.


Matt , I am already seeing it in my hangar customers and friends. They are really complaining after the first two years of operation. They are just waiting till first class is reliable again and the Covid problem is reduced. Then they will unload their Turbine Dinosaurs.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2022, 23:10 
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this is a very common human trait. people go to their ideal place they always had a dream to do, buy a mansion in the mountains at their favorite ski resort etc. then after they are there two years they find having no shopping center near, schools are and hour away, the good hospital is 3 hours away and they move back to their previous life.

so the market will move back perhaps not all the way back but moves made because of short term pressures , when they go away people revert to their previous environment.

the time scale is generally 2 years on average. so in a year or two after the restrictions lift there will be lots of houses in the country, aircraft etc available.


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