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19 Apr 2024, 06:43 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2021, 23:21 
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You get at most 2000 hours of FJ44 operation before you have to talk to Williams. That is the longest interval you can go without an HSI being required if off program.

At the end of those 2000 hours, you have engines that are essentially worthless. Williams will charge you more than the payments would have been to work on it. No sane buyer will purchase the aircraft with no engines to fly it.

The only exit plan for a non program engine is to treat the entire plane as disposable when you hit the Williams brick wall. A $1M plane disposed after 2000 hours is $500/hour amortization. That's more expensive than being on the program.


If you have Williams, you need to be on the program to preserve your value, or you intend to dispose of the airplane when a major engine event occurs. Those are the only two defensible strategies.

Mike C.

Too bad you can't lease Williams engines. That might make more economic sense for a disposable airframe if the lease rate is good. Or any airframe, for that matter.


The Williams program is exactly that.

Last edited on 26 Oct 2021, 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2021, 23:25 
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Username Protected wrote:

Yes. PW535’s

But those are also on programs, no?


Any engine can be on a program. The issue with Williams is that they categorize overhaul as an inspection which makes it a mandatory part of the maintenance schedule.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 26 Oct 2021, 23:45 
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Too bad you can't lease Williams engines. That might make more economic sense for a disposable airframe if the lease rate is good. Or any airframe, for that matter.

The Williams program is exactly that.

Israel, I don't see it that way. You basically own engines that always have the financial value of freshly overhauled engines, and that goes into your capex. If I were truly renting the engines, I could sell my plane for the cost of the airframe.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 00:05 
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Username Protected wrote:
The issue with Williams is that they categorize overhaul as an inspection which makes it a mandatory part of the maintenance schedule.

The FAA made it clear that it doesn't matter what you call it, inspections are required, overhauls are not.

Inspections are checking for airworthy condition.

Overhauls are adding new life.

Williams is playing games with their "major periodic inspection" naming. Just because they call it an inspection doesn't make it so.

In reality, it is a moot point because Williams has a monopoly on major engine work. So for MPI-4 (the overhaul), Williams won't just do the inspection parts, they will require they do a full MPI-4, or they won't work on the engine at all and you have a big expensive door stop.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 00:09 
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Username Protected wrote:
You basically own engines that always have the financial value of freshly overhauled engines, and that goes into your capex. If I were truly renting the engines, I could sell my plane for the cost of the airframe.

Williams makes you buy the house and then they charge you rent to live in it.

If you don't pay the rent, they will burn the house down at some point. You will still technically own the ashes, for all that is worth.

Also, only Williams can work on your house, too.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 04:34 
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If you own a Williams powered airplane, you are basically leasing the engines.


Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 05:27 
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If you own a Williams powered airplane, you are basically leasing the engines.


Robert T

If only that were the case.

But no, you fully own the engines and you are basically pre-paying Williams A LOT for an overhaul later on. Yes, you do get some goodies for your payment like periodic inspections and maintenance.

It's an interesting question, though, as to what will happen down the road when 525 airframes become unserviceable. What to do with the engines? It seems Williams will have to come up with a buyback program or some other solution to avoid ticked off 525 owners who can't get rid of their planes and have $1,000,000 (or more by that point) worth of engines on their aircraft.

I suppose you could sell the engines separately, but who is going to buy a Williams engine? If you already have a timed-out Williams engine, you aren't going to buy a used one. You'll get it overhauled by Williams as part of the program.

And who will have an airframe that needs Williams engines retrofitted? By that time most of the jets that had the old inefficient Pratts will also have old airframes and a retrofit won't be worth it. The newer jets with the more efficient Pratts don't need a retrofit.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 06:50 
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If you think you own your Williams engines, try to sell them. Maybe this has changed, but at one point Williams would not allow you to move engines from one airframe to another, or, they would, but you would have to send them back to Williams for “inspections” and pay a HUGE fee. MSP had the same rule on 731s, but I think relaxed it when those airplanes were aging.
When discussing Williams Engine programs, it’s basically cradle to grave. One of the benefits is the insurance component. If it swarms, they send another. Also at some point the life limited parts will start cycling out. It’s my understanding that if the engine has been on the program since inception, the life limited parts will be covered. Can you imagine if you had to buy those parts from Williams outright?
If it sounds like I’m a fan, I’m usually not. At least not when there are other options. Unfortunately, with Williams, as you know, there are no options. Just Williams.
You can pay them hourly and get the benefit of the insurance component and life limited parts escrow, or you can not pay them until HSI, overhaul, or repair. But you will pay. And I dare say it’s better to pay hourly to get the above benefits than to be forced to “buy in” at some maintenance event because it’s cheaper than the off program repair price. Understandably, this is hard to justify for the low utilization owner.

Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 08:26 
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Username Protected wrote:
If you think you own your Williams engines, try to sell them. Maybe this has changed, but at one point Williams would not allow you to move engines from one airframe to another, or, they would, but you would have to send them back to Williams for “inspections” and pay a HUGE fee. MSP had the same rule on 731s, but I think relaxed it when those airplanes were aging.
When discussing Williams Engine programs, it’s basically cradle to grave. One of the benefits is the insurance component. If it swarms, they send another. Also at some point the life limited parts will start cycling out. It’s my understanding that if the engine has been on the program since inception, the life limited parts will be covered. Can you imagine if you had to buy those parts from Williams outright?
If it sounds like I’m a fan, I’m usually not. At least not when there are other options. Unfortunately, with Williams, as you know, there are no options. Just Williams.
You can pay them hourly and get the benefit of the insurance component and life limited parts escrow, or you can not pay them until HSI, overhaul, or repair. But you will pay. And I dare say it’s better to pay hourly to get the above benefits than to be forced to “buy in” at some maintenance event because it’s cheaper than the off program repair price. Understandably, this is hard to justify for the low utilization owner.

Robert T

Robert, I don't have a copy of the Williams contract. What happens to the engines when the airframe becomes unusable for whatever reason?

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 08:40 
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Username Protected wrote:
If you think you own your Williams engines, try to sell them. Maybe this has changed, but at one point Williams would not allow you to move engines from one airframe to another, or, they would, but you would have to send them back to Williams for “inspections” and pay a HUGE fee. MSP had the same rule on 731s, but I think relaxed it when those airplanes were aging.
When discussing Williams Engine programs, it’s basically cradle to grave. One of the benefits is the insurance component. If it swarms, they send another. Also at some point the life limited parts will start cycling out. It’s my understanding that if the engine has been on the program since inception, the life limited parts will be covered. Can you imagine if you had to buy those parts from Williams outright?
If it sounds like I’m a fan, I’m usually not. At least not when there are other options. Unfortunately, with Williams, as you know, there are no options. Just Williams.
You can pay them hourly and get the benefit of the insurance component and life limited parts escrow, or you can not pay them until HSI, overhaul, or repair. But you will pay. And I dare say it’s better to pay hourly to get the above benefits than to be forced to “buy in” at some maintenance event because it’s cheaper than the off program repair price. Understandably, this is hard to justify for the low utilization owner.

Robert T

Robert, I don't have a copy of the Williams contract. What happens to the engines when the airframe becomes unusable for whatever reason?


You lose your money you paid in is what happens.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 08:56 
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Robert, I don't have a copy of the Williams contract. What happens to the engines when the airframe becomes unusable for whatever reason?


You lose your money you paid in is what happens.

That sounds like unjust enrichment. You paid for an engine overhaul and now Williams doesn't have to provide it?
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 08:56 
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Username Protected wrote:
It's an interesting question, though, as to what will happen down the road when 525 airframes become unserviceable. What to do with the engines? It seems Williams will have to come up with a buyback program or some other solution to avoid ticked off 525 owners who can't get rid of their planes and have $1,000,000 (or more by that point) worth of engines on their aircraft.

Williams will not do anything. Why would they?

At every airframe retirement, whenever that occurs, Williams will have been paid, on average, for half an overhaul period they never have to do. Free money for them.

Airplane in a hangar fire or other loss? Williams obligations end. Sorry about all those payments you made to them. You did pay higher insurance premiums to cover that virtual value of the engines, so you get a fraction of that back, but everybody else helped pay for that, too.

If an owner knows they are in the last period of engine use and won't need major engine work, they can stop paying but making that call is very risky. I know of a few such owners who have done that, typically older owner operators who don't fly that much and they don't expect to have a marketable aircraft when their use is done.

My understanding is that salvage yards will pay more for a JT15D legacy airframe than an FJ44 airframe. This is because the JT15D engines have market value unlike the FJ44, and the legacy parts are in more demand because the newer FJ44 planes are still mostly on parts programs and thus the used part market is not very active for them.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 09:11 
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Username Protected wrote:
That sounds like unjust enrichment. You paid for an engine overhaul and now Williams doesn't have to provide it?

Bingo.

Williams doesn't sell you a prepaid overhaul, they sell you hours of operation. If that next hour happens to require an overhaul, they do it. If you stop paying, they stop providing hours. End of obligation.

Here's the kicker: Williams could, at their whim, decide NOT to offer the program any more to engines over X years or Y hours at contract renewal every 5 years. They can make your airplane worthless any time they want.

The older airframes pose more liability (more owner flown, older tech) and more obligations (older engines require more money to fix, more timed out parts). If those are gone from the market, then there will be more new airplanes sold (with new engines). It makes very sound business sense for Williams to drop engines from the program at some point.

The comfort level FJ44 operators have is due to the past benevolence of Williams. But that can change in an instant. Say they get acquired by a private equity firm who wants to make more money. The customers are absolutely captured and powerless, just turn the knob on the hourly rate, and drop the money losing engines. Done!

An example of a monopoly (mostly) doing this: Signature. They just got sold this year again and the new buyers want revenue.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 09:24 
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Mike is correct.
Example: you own a CJ2 with 3200 hrs on it, not on program and your TBO is 3500 hrs. If you elect to buy in @ 3200 hrs, you pay for back hours and voila, as soon as you sign up, your TBO goes to 4000 hrs. Magic.

Disclaimer
This was the way it was two years ago when I bought a CJ2 that was not on the engine program. These contracts are frequently adjusted by Williams, so the only way to get current info is to get a current contract.

Robert T


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 27 Oct 2021, 09:52 
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Username Protected wrote:
Example: you own a CJ2 with 3200 hrs on it, not on program and your TBO is 3500 hrs. If you elect to buy in @ 3200 hrs, you pay for back hours and voila, as soon as you sign up, your TBO goes to 4000 hrs. Magic.

The metallurgy in the Williams engines is amazing. The metal can sense when you pay more money to Williams and presto, your engine lasts longer, even if it was almost at end of life when you paid!

BTW, the TBO goes to 5000 hours on most engines under the program, typically 4000 hours off program. This was announced in 2014:

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=m ... cb745c1fff

"Williams International is pleased to announce that customers enrolled in its Total Assurance Program (TAP) for engine maintenance will benefit from extended intervals between major periodic inspections (MPI)."

Translation: if Williams pays for overhauls, we do them less often, if the owner pays, no benefit. Have a nice day.

They even have the gall to say:

"“We continue to unlock additional value for our customers through our TAP program,” says Gregg Williams, Chairman, CEO, and President of Williams International."

How is letting customers fly more used up engines, for no reduction in program cost, unlocking more value for them?

If you bought a plan that gave you a new cell phone every 2 years and the company said the interval is now 3 years, would you think you are getting more value from that?

An interesting question would be if an engine is at, say, 4100 hours and you go off program. Do you still get to go to 5000 hours, the on program interval, or is the engine instantly unairworthy due to reverting to the off program interval? In other words, can your intervals be shortened retroactively?

Inspection and overhaul intervals are mostly business decisions, not technical ones, which is why I am perfectly happy to run engines past TBO. As an owner operator, the FAA gives me the authority to do that and I'm going to use it.

Mike C.

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