I have been on the wait list at DKX for 15 years. I think you have to give them cash incentive to get the list to move.

I wonder what the impediments to development are at KDKX - it looks like there is room to expand the existing hangars by at least 50%.

If you’re interested in a more complete picture, this might be of interest…or perhaps this is where you cherry picked the number.

https://privatejetcardcomparisons.com/2 ... hats-next/

They only lost a half a billion dollars last year. I’d definitely invest in them! [/quote][/quote]


Unfortunately, I am invested in UP and agree with your assessment.
If they could not make money last year, and lost 400M, how exactly are they going to make money in 2024? What HUGE changes are they going to make that will keep the demand the same and bring in that much more revenue?

But I am in too deep, so the downside possibility is high but not much more than what I have in losses now.
So, I am holding in for the upside... The very low probability that they will make money in two years or maybe be bought out. Either way, it is only about HOW MUCH I will lose.

To bring it back to the thread topic...Interesting to think what would happen with that many planes coming on the market at once though. If I were an aircraft salesman, I'd find out which bank holds the notes on most of those aircraft and start building a relationship with them....

Bureaucracy has been the issue at TYS and DKX for years. It is also the reason they will never build the airport in Oak Ridge.

How many aircraft does WU own? I saw 119 as of 2019. I would have guessed more. How much of an impact does the presumptive liquidation have on inventories/prices?

- 149 owned
- 66 long term lease
- they say they have another 120 under management.
- they also say that they have access to a network of 1,200 planes for hire

The owned fleet is secured by a $266 million loan. The aircraft are carried on the balance sheet at $566 million. (Note that the Financial Statements show that when they sell aircraft in the current "Hot" market the last few years, they book losses. That implies that they are overvaluing the aircraft on their Balance Sheet)

UP is like a Ponzi scheme. If you look at the 2020, 2021, and 2022 financial statements (the real 10-K's and 10-Q's - not the press releases with the FAKE "Adjusted EBITDA") you can see that they have never made a cash profit on any flight ever. And that is before the real cash costs of: Sales and Marketing, General or Overhead costs, "Technology" costs and before financial costs of interest. - and before paying their deadbeat now Ex-CEO about $9+ million a year.

When you add in all the costs - cash costs and non-cash costs like Depreciation for wearing out the planes, equity based compensation (diluting the unsuspecting shareholders that have been duped into buying UP stock) and the $180 million write off of Good Will (i.e. they paid too much for the acquisitions) you can see that they lost $555 million in 2022.

But the real thing you should look at is the CASH BALANCE and the Cash Flow Statements. (As they say "Follow the cash"). In 2022 their Cash Balance dropped $200 million during the year. At the same time they took a $270 million loan in 2022 with 12% INTEREST which they did not have in 2021 (i.e. their cash balance should have jumped up $270 million).That means that UP burned through $470 million in CASH in 2022 to keep flying.

The first quarter of 2023 is even "better". In only 3 months UP burned through $222 million in Cash. Now it is mid -May. It is no wonder that the CEO resigned and the company warned that it may become insolvent.

UP is a cash sinkhole. The only thing keeping the company afloat is new members handing them wads of cash up front for a "promise" of charter flights in the future. (In 2020 they also got a handout of $76 million in CARES ACT cash). That "promise to deliver charter flights to Members" is the biggest Liability on the Balance Sheet - it is called "Deferred Revenue". Those are "IOU's" to the Members - UP has received the cash for the flight from Members but has not delivered the flight. "Deferred Revenue" LIABILITY to "Members" is about $1 Billion.

I think the reality is that the UP stock is worthless. As soon as UP runs out of cash and violates the covenants on the loans, the Bank will call the loan. Even if the Bank doesn't call the loan, UP will cease flying since they lose cash on every flight. Instant Bankruptcy.

This will not be like a typical corporate reorganization in bankruptcy because there are not a few specific lenders to negotiate new terms. No one in their right mind will put cash in (except new Members...). The Bank/Financial Institution that loaned the money will happily take the planes. Another option is for the "Members" to be wiped out - or take a massive haircut on charter flights.

The Bank will sell the 149 planes. The 66 planes in Long Term lease will be repossessed and put back to market. The 120 planes under management will no longer have cash income. To the extent that the owners of those planes need cash they will put them back on the market at aggressive rates or sell them.

Managment ran this like an IT start-up mindset - not a commodity transportation business. Increased volume was never going to cure their cash losses. Bottom line, this highlights the that the charter industry is way underpricing flights. I think UP should have charged 50% more for charter flights - maybe more - double. It also shows the illusionary nature of the this "new market" for "people that don't want to fly commercial" or so called "New Private Market". I think bankruptcy of the #2 On Demand Charter operator it will be a harbinger of a directional change in aircraft and aviation stock valuations.

Just my thoughts....

That's the problem with pretty much all startups in the last 20 years, isn't it? They're packaged and leveraged to only work by offloading them to a new buyer. The business model is to fatten it up, buy customers as quickly as possible and then sell it to a bigger fish, rather than actually doing the business they're supposed to do.

Then again, has any airline/charter company EVER been truly profitable? They run on 1% profit margins at best. You could sell lemonade on the corner and generate more profits than any charter company has ever done.

Maybe Elon will buy it and merge it with Twitter.

At least we’d be able to get a blue checkmark.

At least we’d be able to get a blue checkmark.

Probably not much considering that it's spread over three different types of aircraft and it will be at least a year from the time WU goes TU before they hit the market... and they won't be all at once.

Decided Wheels Up is probably worth it's own thread.

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