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28 Mar 2024, 18:05 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 12:53 
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Username Protected wrote:

I was mainly needling Michael! ;)


I drive a 94 montero with no ac or working windows. Money goes to airplanes.

Pistons are not cheap IMHO, especially twins. My baron required a fair bit of upkeep and finding decent mechanics is not cheap, nor should it be. Avgas is expensive relative to JetA and pressurization is important for travel.

Once the FBO's start charging a $500 fee to land a piston airplane because they don't buy much fuel, we'll see them hopefully helping us fight the battle on the 'wow' charges

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 14:28 
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Joined: 01/07/13
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Company: Tupelo Aero, Inc
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This is a bubble created by pumping goobs of “OPM” or never seen before money. Once it dries up things will be trending back to what we have all seen before, unless there is another round of free money. I just hope it doesn’t go back the “no money” days of 2008.

I remember buying a large turbo prop and the Dow was below 7000. Crazy World out there.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 14:41 
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GA is mostly old legacy aircraft and a few new planes like Cirrus and SETP’S.

Because a small part of the market is doing well does NOT define the rest of the market.

An increase in fuel cost on both 100LL and JetA will pop this current bubble. We can expect 100LL to hit 7 dollars a gallon and Jet A to hit 6 dollars a gallon. If we get to these prices about half of the legacy fleet will be grounded. The FBO’S will raise prices on the remaining airplanes that are still flying.

Aircraft inventory levels will increase substantially and prices will come down.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 14:57 
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Username Protected wrote:

That does not address the HUGE demand that Cirrus ($1M) is experiencing - me thinks this market will outlast the 13 month lead time on a new Cirrus.


They were selling briskly before this upturn - they just happen to be one of the few GA producers that are making product that people want, so I don't think they're a good example to base any general market views on.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 16:34 
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It is going to be very interesting to be looking at the market 12-18 months from now.

Jg


I think it's going to be even stronger frankly. So many people are trying their toe in the water and realizing it's the only way to go.

I see piston aircraft getting pushed out in favor of larger planes.


One of the things people overlook is the value of their time. If a bigger, faster, more reliable plane saves enough time, and you or your team’s time is valuable enough, a downward market correction is not especially relevant.

For private flyers it can be a quality of life thing and money isn’t in first place. Or, the depreciation is a rounding error, and can’t have too much importance attached to it.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 18:23 
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I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was.

I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask.

Mike


Nailed it!!!


Absolutely no question about it.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 18:39 
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Username Protected wrote:

I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was.

I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask.

Mike


Nailed it!!!


If you guys really think wearing a paper mask is the reason people don't like flying commercial, tell me what airline you fly because it's better than all the ones I've been on.

There are a bunch of ICU nurses and kindergarten teachers laughing somewhere.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 19:04 
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Username Protected wrote:

I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was.

I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask.

Mike



If you guys really think wearing a paper mask is the reason people don't like flying commercial, tell me what airline you fly because it's better than all the ones I've been on.

There are a bunch of ICU nurses and kindergarten teachers laughing somewhere.


You missed the "poor customer service" part of his post.

Having to wear a mask is on top of rude TSA, rude gate agents, rude flight attendants and rude passengers... flying commercial is officially miserable.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2021, 11:40 
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Chip,

So everybody is buying a airplane. The market is nuts.

But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?

Tim


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2021, 12:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
But.... I don't see ramps full at airports? What are people doing with all of the airplanes they are buying?



My guess is there’s a 1% of airports as well that are seeing 50% of the increased traffic.

HPN ADS VNY etc


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2021, 12:16 
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If you guys really think wearing a paper mask is the reason people don't like flying commercial, tell me what airline you fly because it's better than all the ones I've been on.


"The idiom which is going to be discussed here in this post is: The last straw, or the final straw so notice the following example to start understanding the meaning of this popular idiom."
https://uclnet.com/last-straw/

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2021, 12:20 
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This bubble/boom is only affecting the top 25% of the market. The other 75% of the legacy GA fleet are hiding in their hangars or they are ramp rats.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 01:54 
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You guys view the world through a microscope.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 08:13 
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My good friend JGG says he doesn't see the statistics to back it up...but at *some* of the airports I've been around in the past few months...the traffic is (apparently) way up. Conroe (N of Houston), Destin, FL....several times have had multiple delays due to traffic.

And, it doesn't seem confined to jets/turboprops. Lots of increased SE piston traffic.


I don't have a good source of data. It's just an observation...but it sure seems to be busy.

A couple guys I know are in the market for "other airplanes"....and I would agree that the inventory is low.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 16 Oct 2021, 18:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
My good friend JGG says he doesn't see the statistics to back it up...but at *some* of the airports I've been around in the past few months...the traffic is (apparently) way up. Conroe (N of Houston), Destin, FL....several times have had multiple delays due to traffic.

And, it doesn't seem confined to jets/turboprops. Lots of increased SE piston traffic.


I don't have a good source of data. It's just an observation...but it sure seems to be busy.

A couple guys I know are in the market for "other airplanes"....and I would agree that the inventory is low.


180 degree turn from the depths of the COVID scare in 2020. April/May 2020 some days I was the only guy in or out of an FBO.

Today, I know that my home airport FBO is on track to having the best year they have ever had. Weekend when freshmen reported in to local college, I had never seen so many airplanes on the ramp. Packed... also some pricey iron, Falcons, etc. FBOs at airports on my most common city pairs also very busy. Gent who taught me how to fly is having the best year financially that he has had is his post-airline pilot years.

So I think that anecdotally, at least from my limited view, the craziness in the market for planes is on a parallel track with busy-ness in the general aviation & FBO world.


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