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29 Mar 2024, 03:21 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 11 Oct 2021, 12:43 
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I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was.

I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask.

Mike


Mask mandate is so overblown. Private is to avoid

- delay’s
- TSA (huge one)
- comfort to take what you want

Agreed a million on the service.

Dropped a kid at montrose to fly back to a camp. 1 gate agent, 6 TSA agents. Make that math work!!!!

Ridiculous amount of crap.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 11 Oct 2021, 17:41 
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Username Protected wrote:

I like how the say the demand is driven by Covid health concerns. Every person I know thats flying Private is doing so because they don't want to deal with the mask mandates on airlines. And the fact that airlines have greatly reduced their level of service. First class is now what coach was.

I cant stand to fly commercial and its not because I am worried about getting Covid. I cant stand poor service and being told to wear a mask.

Mike


Nailed it!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 11 Oct 2021, 19:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
Another article, this time Cirrus' unprecdented demand:

And demand is giving the broader industry a tailwind, too.

“There's not a manufacturer out there that I deal with on a daily basis that isn't sold out for the next 18 months,” said Tom Hauge, the national sales director for Wings Insurance. “Inventory levels are down, backlogs are substantial. If you want to buy a new airplane today, good luck.”


https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/busin ... kies-ahead


Spoke to a friend today who spoke to cirrus last week and was told 13 months to delivery if he ordered now.
Incidentally, cirrus is now producing 14 sr's a week. About twice the average of 2019.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Oct 2021, 10:30 
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Joined: 02/18/18
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Company: Personal
Aircraft: C90BXP
Switched to a CJ3 in June from the P100, Phenom was on the market for less than a day. I put in 6 full price offers on a CJ3 until I got one. The market is high but I own car dealerships and margins are up 300% even with the volume decline it works well. Manufacturers are telling us 18-24 months to get back to normal


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Oct 2021, 17:27 
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Just an amusing thought... what would Controller look like if they had to take down every airplane that either wasn't really for sale or had a contract on it...

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 12 Oct 2021, 21:48 
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Username Protected wrote:
Just an amusing thought... what would Controller look like if they had to take down every airplane that either wasn't really for sale or had a contract on it...


Currently, it would be empty :D

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 06:48 
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It is going to be very interesting to be looking at the market 12-18 months from now.

Jg

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 09:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
It is going to be very interesting to be looking at the market 12-18 months from now.

Jg


I think it's going to be even stronger frankly. So many people are trying their toe in the water and realizing it's the only way to go.

I see piston aircraft getting pushed out in favor of larger planes.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 09:52 
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Username Protected wrote:
I see piston aircraft getting pushed out in favor of larger planes.
I agree with you Mike. Older Barons and Twin Cessnas will be retired as more Meridians and TBM's depreciate. Plus, if the price of avgas continues to climb it will accelerate the process.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 11:06 
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You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich"-glasses. There are very few people out of the 1% that have a) interest in aviation or even the b) means of buying a $4M aircraft.

This is a short, weird frenzy/anomaly - it won't be like this in another 18 months.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 11:11 
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Username Protected wrote:
You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich, too"-glasses.
Adam, have you seen the aircraft I fly? I believe I qualify as "slumming" by your definition.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 11:14 
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Username Protected wrote:
You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich, too"-glasses.
Adam, have you seen the aircraft I fly? I believe I qualify as "slumming" by your definition.


I was mainly needling Michael! ;)
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 11:39 
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Username Protected wrote:
You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich"-glasses. There are very few people out of the 1% that have a) interest in aviation or even the b) means of buying a $4M aircraft.


I’m just a 2% anesthesiologist… but I’d disagree entirely.

The US has about 350,000 0.1%
If 1% of that group moves into (or up in) the private aviation market, it makes a big shift. And it isn’t just new entries. It’s guys with a citation who took business class to Europe now dropping $$$ for a charter gulfstream to Zermatt.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 12:44 
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Username Protected wrote:

I’m just a 2% anesthesiologist… but I’d disagree entirely.

The US has about 350,000 0.1%
If 1% of that group moves into (or up in) the private aviation market, it makes a big shift. And it isn’t just new entries. It’s guys with a citation who took business class to Europe now dropping $$$ for a charter gulfstream to Zermatt.


Perhaps on the percentages, but these guys real estate investment portfolio is gonna tank pretty soon and they won't be riding anything but bicycles. This is not a new normal.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 13 Oct 2021, 12:45 
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Username Protected wrote:
You guys are wearing the "I'm rich, therefore everyone else must also be rich"-glasses. There are very few people out of the 1% that have a) interest in aviation or even the b) means of buying a $4M aircraft.

This is a short, weird frenzy/anomaly - it won't be like this in another 18 months.


That does not address the HUGE demand that Cirrus ($1M) is experiencing - me thinks this market will outlast the 13 month lead time on a new Cirrus.

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